Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions for Monday October 26 2026
Milwaukee has already lost to Washington, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Three games, three losses, and the Bucks have allowed at least 127 points twice. Now Indiana comes into town with its own problems, and I’m not sure the Pacers are in any position to take advantage. They just lost by 16 at home to Dallas. This isn’t exactly a matchup between two teams playing beautiful basketball. Somebody has to win, though, and I think Milwaukee finally gets one.
Indiana visits Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum on Monday, October 26, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. The Pacers play Brooklyn on Sunday before making the trip to Milwaukee, so that result and any new injuries need to be checked. I haven’t found a reliable consensus line for Monday. My betting numbers are Milwaukee +2.5 or better and Over 229.5 or lower. Make sure you check out all of our free NBA picks to be ready for the season.
Indiana Pacers Haven’t Found Their Rhythm
Indiana is 1-1 heading into Sunday’s game against Brooklyn. The Pacers opened with a 123-120 win at New Orleans, then came home and lost 121-105 to Dallas. That’s 114 points scored and 120.5 allowed per game. The offense looked fine against the Pelicans, but the Dallas game was another story. Indiana never really got comfortable, and the Mavericks were able to control long stretches. The Pacers have enough talent to play better than that. But with another road game Sunday, they’ll have to turn things around quickly.
Indiana is shooting 41.9% from the floor and 30.7% from three through two games. Those numbers explain a lot. The Pacers have been getting opportunities, but they aren’t converting enough of them. Milwaukee’s defense has been a mess, so Indiana should find some open looks Monday. The Bucks are allowing 129 points per game through their first two contests, and they haven’t been doing a particularly good job keeping opponents out of the paint. The Pacers need to get the ball moving and attack before Milwaukee can get set. If they spend the night settling for threes, they’re making life unnecessarily difficult.
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Pascal Siakam has been Indiana’s most reliable scorer at 26.5 points per game, while Ivica Zubac is averaging 13 rebounds. Tyrese Haliburton is still the guy who makes the offense work, and Indiana needs him creating good shots for everybody else. The Pacers are dealing with some backcourt injuries, too. T.J. McConnell has a hamstring problem, Ben Sheppard is out with a meniscus injury, and Johnny Furphy remains sidelined following ACL surgery. Aaron Nesmith has also been managing a hamstring issue. That matters with Indiana playing on consecutive nights. The Pacers could be pretty thin by the time they get to Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Bucks Are Giving Up Far Too Many Points
Milwaukee is 0-3 after losing 128-116 at Washington, 132-125 to Chicago, and 127-116 at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Bucks have scored 119 points per game, which isn’t bad at all. The problem is they’re allowing 129. That’s an awful lot of points to give away. Milwaukee had a chance to get its first win against Chicago, but the Bulls scored 132 in Fiserv Forum. Then Philadelphia put up 127. The Bucks aren’t getting enough stops, and that’s been the difference between a competitive start and three straight losses.
Milwaukee has actually been shooting the ball reasonably well. Through its first two games, the Bucks made 48.8% of their field goals and 37.9% from three. Those are numbers that should produce wins. But they haven’t been able to keep opponents from scoring, and their defensive rating has been among the worst in the league. Indiana isn’t shooting particularly well right now, so this might be the matchup Milwaukee needs. The Bucks don’t have to shut the Pacers down completely. They just need to keep Indiana from getting easy baskets and force a few more difficult shots.
Tyler Herro has been giving Milwaukee 24 points per game, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been active on the glass. Myles Turner gives the Bucks another presence inside, and he’ll have an interesting matchup with Zubac. Milwaukee doesn’t have any major injuries listed heading into Monday, which is a pretty big advantage against a Pacers team dealing with several absences. The Bucks also get Sunday off while Indiana is playing Brooklyn. That might not sound like much in October, but fresh legs matter when both teams are trying to get their offense organized.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions
Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 or Better
I’ll take Milwaukee if the Bucks are getting 2.5 points or more. I know they’re 0-3, and I’m not going to pretend their defense has been acceptable. But Indiana hasn’t been shooting well, and the Pacers have to play Brooklyn on Sunday before coming into Milwaukee. The Bucks get the home floor, a day off, and a healthier roster. That’s enough for me to lean their way. Indiana could win if Haliburton gets the offense moving and Siakam has another big game, but I think Milwaukee has a better chance than the early records suggest. Give me the Bucks with the points.
Over 229.5 or Lower
I’m looking at the over if the total comes out at 229.5 or lower. Milwaukee has allowed 128, 132, and 127 points, and Indiana gave up 120 to New Orleans and 121 to Dallas. Neither team has been particularly good defensively. The Bucks are scoring enough to contribute, and Indiana should find easier looks against Milwaukee than it did against Dallas. The concern is Indiana’s shooting. The Pacers are making only 30.7% of their threes, and another cold night could keep this under. But Milwaukee has been giving opponents too many chances, and I think both teams get into the 110s. I’ll take the over at the right number.
Final Picks: Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 or better and Over 229.5 or lower
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