Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 21 2026
I don’t know what Indiana did during the offseason to earn this much respect, but somebody must have liked it. The Pacers are laying 3.5 points in New Orleans on Wednesday after winning 19 games last season. Nineteen! Now, I realize they had a miserable run with injuries, and getting healthy changes things. But the books are asking us to pay for a turnaround that hasn’t happened yet.
The Pacers and Pelicans meet at Smoothie King Center on October 21, 2026, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET. Indiana is favored by 3.5 points, and the total is 241.5. New Orleans won only 26 games last season, so neither club has much room to talk. Check out our free NBA picks for more predictions.
Indiana Pacers Have Some Work To Do
Indiana went 19-63 last season. The Pacers were 8-33 on the road, and some of those nights were hard to watch. They were missing players, the rotation kept changing, and the defense wasn’t stopping much of anybody. The preseason ended with a 128-127 loss to Milwaukee. At least the Pacers were scoring. That’s usually the easy part for Indiana when the ball is moving and everybody’s running.
The Pacers gave up 121.6 points per game away from home last season. You can blame some of that on injuries, sure, but somebody still has to guard the other team. Indiana likes to get the ball up the floor and find a shot before the defense gets set. When it works, it’s fun to watch. When it doesn’t, the Pacers end up trading baskets all night and hoping they make more threes. New Orleans scored 128 against them in this building last December. Indiana had better be ready to defend the paint this time.
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Aaron Nesmith has been dealing with a hamstring injury, and T.J. McConnell and Jarace Walker have also been on the injury report. Johnny Furphy is out with a knee problem. That’s not how Indiana wanted to start after last season. The Pacers have some players who can make things happen with the ball, but I want to see how the rotation holds up. A couple of early fouls or another injury, and the coach could be reaching pretty deep down the bench.
New Orleans Pelicans Need To Quit Beating Themselves
New Orleans went 26-56 last season and finished 17-24 at home. That’s a lot of unhappy people leaving Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans did give Indiana a good beating here in December, winning 128-109. The Pacers got them back in Indianapolis, 127-119. So there’s no mystery about whether these teams can score against each other. They can. The bigger question is whether either one can string together enough stops to win without making everybody nervous.
The Pelicans averaged 118.2 points at home last season and allowed 119.5. There’s your problem. You score 118 and still spend half the night chasing the other team. New Orleans needs to take better care of the ball and get back on defense. Indiana will run every chance it gets. But the Pelicans have enough size to make the Pacers work around the basket, and they shouldn’t have to force shots if they move the ball. Get something decent, make Indiana defend, and quit handing away possessions.
Dejounte Murray has been dealing with a toe injury, and the Pelicans need him healthy. They need somebody who can settle things down when the offense gets sloppy. New Orleans has players who can score, but that hasn’t been the problem. It’s been the mistakes. Bad turnovers, missed assignments, giving up second shots. You can get away with some of that against a bad team. Against Indiana, which loves running after turnovers, it’ll get you beat in a hurry.
Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions
New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-105)
Give me New Orleans and the 3.5 points. Indiana might be a whole lot better this season. Maybe the Pacers get healthy and start looking like the team everybody remembers. But I’m not paying for that possibility in the first game. New Orleans beat them by 19 here last season, and the Pelicans can score against this defense. I’m not saying the home team is suddenly great. Far from it. But Indiana was a lousy road team, and laying points with them feels like giving away an advantage before the ball even goes up. I’ll take the Pelicans.
Under 241.5 Points (-110)
I’ll go under 241.5, but don’t mistake this for a bet I’m crazy about. Both teams gave up a ton of points last season, and Indiana will happily turn this into a track meet. That’s the problem. Still, 242 points is a big number for an opener, especially with both clubs trying to get healthy and figure out their rotations. I expect some sloppy stretches, missed jumpers, and a few possessions where nobody seems to know what they’re doing. If the Pacers start hitting threes and New Orleans runs with them, the under could be in trouble before halftime. I’ll take the chance. Something around 119-116 would get us home.
Final Picks: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-105) and Under 241.5 Points (-110)
This preview was completed October 20, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, starting lineups, and other game information may change before tipoff.
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