Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns Picks and Predictions for Tuesday December 23, 2025
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The Los Angeles Lakers head back to Phoenix for another Western Conference clash with the Suns, and this one has a very different feel than the previous meetings. Los Angeles has been excellent on the road all season (12–4 away), but they’re coming off a rough showing in their last game. Phoenix, meanwhile, has been strong at home (9–5) and will be looking to protect the desert again in a spot where the betting market has them favoured by more than a single possession. Before we get into the matchup breakdown, be sure to check out our other Free NBA picks for more daily predictions and full-slate coverage.
Game Details That Shape This Matchup
- Date/Time: 9:00 PM, December 23, 2025
- Location: Phoenix, AZ (Mortgage Matchup Center)
- Matchup Predictor: Lakers 46.6% vs Suns 53.4% (ESPN Analytics)
- Odds (provided): Suns -4.5 (-110) | Lakers +4.5 (-110)
- Total: 224.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Moneyline: Lakers +145 | Suns -175
At a glance, the line is telling you this: Phoenix is the more trusted side at home, but this isn’t priced like a blowout. The total is also relatively modest compared to some of the higher-scoring matchups on your slate earlier this month—suggesting the market expects at least one team to be pulled off their ideal offensive rhythm.
Form Check: Recent Results & Momentum
Los Angeles Lakers recent form
The Lakers come in at 19–8 overall with a 12–4 road record. Over their last five:
- 12/20 @ LAC: L 103–88
- 12/18 @ UTAH: W 143–135
- 12/14 @ PHX: W 116–114
- 12/10 vs SA: L 132–119
- 12/7 @ PHI: W 112–108
That 103–88 loss stands out because it’s not just a loss—it’s a pace and efficiency loss. When Los Angeles gets dragged into a lower-output game, their margin for error shrinks. Still, three wins in the last five and a strong road profile keep them live.
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Phoenix Suns recent form
Phoenix is 15–13 overall, 9–5 at home. Over their last five:
- 12/20 @ GS: L 119–116
- 12/18 vs GS: W 99–98
- 12/14 vs LAL: L 116–114
- 12/10 @ OKC: L 138–89
- 12/8 @ MIN: W 108–105
Phoenix has been a bit volatile lately. They’ve shown they can win tight, half-court games (like 99–98) and they’ve also had at least one result where things got away from them badly (the 138–89 loss). That matters because the “which Suns team shows up” question can be the difference between covering -4.5 comfortably or sweating the final minute.
Style & Statistical Matchup
Efficiency & scoring environment
- Lakers: 118.0 PPG scored, 116.8 allowed
- Suns: 114.3 PPG scored, 114.1 allowed
Los Angeles plays in a slightly higher scoring environment overall, but they also allow points. Phoenix is closer to neutral in net scoring—less explosive on offence than the Lakers on paper, but slightly steadier defensively.
Shooting
- Lakers FG%: 50
- Suns FG%: 46
That FG% gap is notable. If those rates hold, Los Angeles tends to get cleaner looks or converts at a higher clip. The catch: efficiency can be matchup-dependent, and Phoenix being at home is often where role players and spot-up shooting are more reliable.
Possession battles: boards, assists, defence events
- Rebounds: Suns 42.1 vs Lakers 41.9 (basically even)
- Assists: Lakers 25.0 vs Suns 25.2 (basically even)
- Blocks: Suns 4.1 vs Lakers 4.0 (even)
- Steals: Suns 11.1 vs Lakers 8.1 (edge Phoenix)
The steals number is the one that jumps out. Phoenix generating more takeaways suggests they can produce extra possessions without needing to dominate the glass. That’s important when you’re laying -4.5: “free” points off turnovers can create separation without needing a huge half-court advantage.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers — Key Injuries (verified)
- Rui Hachimura — OUT (Est. Return: Dec 25)
- Austin Reaves — GTD (Est. Return: Dec 23)
- Luka Doncic — OUT (Est. Return: Dec 25)
- Gabe Vincent — OUT (Est. Return: Dec 28)
This is the biggest storyline of the game from a betting standpoint. With multiple names listed and at least one major absence, Los Angeles could be forced into shorter rotations and more conservative offensive choices—especially if the game slows down.
Phoenix Suns — Key Injuries (verified)
- Grayson Allen — GTD (Est. Return: Dec 23)
- Jalen Green — OUT (Est. Return: Jan 7)
- Koby Brea — GTD (Est. Return: Dec 23)
Phoenix has uncertainty (two GTDs) but fewer confirmed outs compared to Los Angeles. If the GTDs lean positive, that tilts depth and perimeter options further toward the home side.
What This Means For Betting
Phoenix’s edge here is stability and pressure: better steals profile, home-court, and (based on the report) fewer confirmed absences. Los Angeles’ edge is baseline efficiency—the numbers say they shoot better and can score, but their last game shows they can get pulled into a grinder.
The total at 224.5 is the interesting part. Both teams’ season scoring environments are higher than that number might suggest (especially the Lakers), but injuries often compress pace and reduce the quality of late-game offence. If Los Angeles is forced into more half-court possessions and Phoenix can generate turnovers, you can get a game that feels close while still landing under.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns Pick
Against the Spread Pick: Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-110)
Phoenix is the side I trust more to create separation, and it’s largely driven by the injury context and the steals/extra possessions profile. Laying -4.5 isn’t asking for domination—it’s asking for a bit of breathing room in a home spot where Phoenix has been reliable.
Total Pick: Under 224.5 (-110)
Even though both teams can score, the combination of (1) Los Angeles’ injury list and (2) Phoenix’s ability to disrupt possessions leans me toward a slightly more controlled game script. If this turns into a half-court, late-clock type of night, the under becomes the cleaner angle. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on the Lakers. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Suns with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Suns vs Lakers you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Final Score Prediction
Phoenix Suns 113, Los Angeles Lakers 106
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Best Picks:
- Suns -4.5
- Under 224.5
