Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026
Miami is four games into the season and still looking for its first win. That’s bad enough, but the Heat have also been giving up points like they’re handing out free samples. Detroit scored 128 on them. Dallas put up 113 Monday and walked out with another win. Now Miami has to go to Atlanta and deal with a Hawks team that’s been scoring pretty freely. I don’t love laying a big number with Atlanta, but if we’re picking which team is more likely to win this game, I don’t see much of an argument for Miami right now.
The Heat visit State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Wednesday, October 28, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET. Atlanta has dropped two straight after opening 2-0, so both teams have something to straighten out. My picks are Atlanta -7.5 or better and Under 240.5, both at target numbers rather than confirmed sportsbook offers. With the NBA season picking up traction it is time to find the winning path with our free NBA picks.
Miami Heat Can’t Keep Giving Up This Many Points
Miami is 0-4 and has lost both of its home games along with its road opener. The Heat lost 115-110 at Charlotte on Saturday, then returned home Monday and lost 113-109 to Dallas. Those last two scores were close, but that’s not much comfort when you’re still sitting on zero wins. Miami has had chances to finish games and hasn’t done it. That’s the difference between a team having a rough week and one getting itself into an early hole.
The Heat are scoring 109 points per game while allowing 121.8. That defensive number is what would bother me most. You can’t expect to win consistently when the other team is getting into the 120s. Miami has also been playing at a fairly quick pace, which gives opponents more possessions to work with. Atlanta is comfortable in that sort of game. If the Heat can’t keep the Hawks out of the paint and stop the easy transition baskets, this could be another long night.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.3 points and eight rebounds for Miami, and he’s still the toughest matchup Atlanta has to deal with. Davion Mitchell is handing out 8.7 assists, while Bam Adebayo remains an important part of Miami’s interior defense. The current injury listing doesn’t show a major Heat absence. That’s actually part of my concern. Miami has had its main pieces available and still hasn’t won. It needs better defensive possessions, not just another good individual scoring night.
Atlanta Hawks Have the Offense to Make Miami Pay
Atlanta is 2-2. The Hawks opened with two wins, including that ridiculous 128-81 beating of Charlotte, but Houston has handed them consecutive losses. They lost 121-114 at home Saturday and 120-110 in Houston on Monday. So no, Atlanta isn’t playing perfect basketball either. But the Hawks have shown they can score in bunches, and they’re coming back home to face a defense that’s been giving up far too many good looks.
Atlanta is averaging 121 points and allowing 111.8. The Hawks move the ball well, play with pace and have been creating extra possessions with their defense. That’s a pretty good setup against Miami. The Heat can score inside, but Atlanta has more ways to put pressure on a defense over a full game. If the Hawks get out and run, Miami could find itself trying to catch up for most of the second half.
Jalen Johnson has been doing a little of everything, averaging 21.7 points, ten rebounds and ten assists. Those are impressive numbers even this early in the season. Dyson Daniels has been a pest defensively, averaging 4.3 steals, and that could be a real problem for a Miami offense trying to settle itself down. Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye because of a foot injury, while Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a knee injury. Those absences affect the frontcourt depth, but I still like the Hawks’ ability to create offense around Johnson.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Picks and Predictions
Atlanta Hawks -7.5 or Better — Target Spread
I’d lay 7.5 with Atlanta, although I wouldn’t chase this number much higher. Miami has lost four straight, and the Heat are allowing nearly 122 points per game. That’s not a defense I want to back against a Hawks team averaging 121. Johnson can create shots for himself or somebody else, and Daniels should give Miami’s ballhandlers a tough night. Now, the Hawks just lost twice to Houston, and Miami has enough talent to make a big spread uncomfortable. Giannis could get Atlanta into foul trouble in a hurry. But the Heat haven’t shown they can string together enough stops to win. I like Atlanta to pull away in the second half.
Under 240.5 — Target Total
I’m taking Under 240.5, and I know that sounds strange after talking about how bad Miami’s defense has been. But 240.5 is asking both teams to have a pretty good offensive night. Atlanta has been scoring plenty, but Miami has finished at 110 and 109 in its last two games. If the Heat can’t get their offense rolling, the Hawks could win by ten without this game getting close to 240. The danger is turnovers turning into easy points and both clubs getting into a running contest. That’s definitely possible. I just think the total is giving a little too much credit to Miami’s offense right now. Atlanta 121-110 would suit me fine.
Final Picks: Atlanta Hawks -7.5 or Better (target spread) and Under 240.5 (target total)
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