Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday, January 11, 2026
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The Miami Heat head to Oklahoma City on Sunday night to play the Thunder and complete a back-to-back after playing on the road Saturday versus Indiana. The Heat are 20-17 overall and sit 8th in the Eastern Conference, while Oklahoma City is 32-7 overall and 1st in the Western Conference. Cash in a winning ticket using our free NBA picks.
Heat vs Thunder Game Information
- Date: Sunday, January 11
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
- TV: FanDuel Sports Network Sun, FanDuel Sports Network OK
Miami Heat Preview
Miami’s offense is led by Norman Powell, who is averaging 24.3 points per game on 49.0% shooting. Tyler Herro is the second-leading scorer, averaging 22.3 points per game in limited appearances, giving the Heat another strong scorer. Bam Adebayo remains a steady interior presence, averaging 16.9 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, and Kel’el Ware controls the glass at 10.6 rebounds per game while providing rim protection.
The Heat score 120.1 points per game but allow 117.4. Miami shares the ball well at 28.7 assists per game, with Davion Mitchell averaging 7.5 assists while limiting turnovers. The bigger concern in this matchup is the back-to-back travel and whether Miami can keep its pace late, especially if the Thunder turn stops into quick points. Injuries: Terry Rozier is out.
Key Stats Per Game
- Points: 120.1
- Points Allowed: 117.4
- Rebounds: 45.6
- Assists: 28.7
- Steals: 9.4
- Blocks: 4.5
- Turnovers: 13.8
Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
Oklahoma City is led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averages 31.9 points and 6.4 assists per game while shooting 54.8% from the field. Jalen Williams adds 17.2 points and 5.5 assists, giving OKC another solid scorer and passer. In the paint, Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team with 10.4 rebounds per game, while Chet Holmgren provides size and shot-blocking when healthy.
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The Thunder score 121.4 points per game and allow just 108.3, one of the best defensive marks in the league. Oklahoma City averages 10.4 steals per game and limits mistakes with 11.8 turnovers per game. Oklahoma City has also been dominant at home at 18-2, and that edge becomes larger against teams on short rest. Several key players are listed as game-time decisions, including Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren, so monitor status leading up to tipoff.
Key Stats Per Game
- Points: 121.4
- Points Allowed: 108.3
- Rebounds: 44.1
- Assists: 25.8
- Steals: 10.4
- Blocks: 5.6
- Turnovers: 11.8
Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Oklahoma City’s defense and home form set the tone, and Miami’s back-to-back travel makes it harder to sustain scoring for four quarters. If the Thunder’s core plays, their ability to force turnovers, and strong offensive play from Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, Oklahoma City will win comfortably. Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder win and cover ATS, 120-105.
Best Picks
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Under
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