Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction for Wednesday November 4 2026
Minnesota heads to Houston on Wednesday night for an 8:30 PM ET game against the Rockets at Toyota Center. Both teams have been playing pretty good basketball, and both are coming off wins Monday. The Timberwolves beat Milwaukee 112-100, while Houston handled Boston 109-93. The Rockets are favored by 8.5 points, with the total sitting at 222.5 in the early market. That’s a fairly big spread between two teams that have been winning games, and I’m not convinced Houston deserves quite that much respect. Check out our free NBA picks for more predictions.
Minnesota Timberwolves Have Been Tough Defensively
Minnesota is 5-3 after beating Milwaukee by 12 points Monday. The Timberwolves also knocked off the Clippers 127-101 last Friday, although they lost 121-111 to San Antonio in between. They’ve been a little inconsistent, but when Minnesota gets its defense working, it’s a tough team to play against.
The big question is how much offense the Timberwolves can generate without Anthony Edwards, who was listed out in the early injury report. That’s a pretty significant loss, and there’s no point pretending otherwise. Minnesota needs other players to step up, and that can be difficult against a Houston team that’s been playing well defensively.
Still, I don’t think the Timberwolves are helpless here. They just held Milwaukee to 100 points, and Houston managed only 109 against Boston. Minnesota has enough defensive ability to make the Rockets work for their baskets. If the Timberwolves can keep this game from turning into a bunch of easy transition points, I think they can stay within striking distance.
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Houston Rockets Are Getting the Job Done
Houston is 6-1 after beating Boston 109-93 on Monday. That’s a pretty good defensive performance against a Celtics team that came into the game playing well. The Rockets also beat Oklahoma City 119-98 on Saturday. Holding those two opponents to 93 and 98 points is impressive, and it’s a big reason Houston has been winning.
What I like about the Rockets is that they’re not depending on scoring 125 points every night. They’ve shown they can win by defending, and that’s something that usually travels pretty well through a long season. Houston has been strong at home, and the Rockets have the kind of physical presence that can make life difficult for a team missing one of its best scorers.
But here’s my issue with laying 8.5 points. Minnesota can defend, too. The Timberwolves aren’t some bottom-feeder coming into town hoping to keep the game respectable. They’ve won five games, and they’ve already shown they can hold opponents around 100 points. Houston might be the better team right now, but that doesn’t mean it wins every game by double digits.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5
I’m taking the points with Minnesota. Houston has been playing excellent basketball, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockets win outright. But 8.5 points is a lot to give a Timberwolves team that’s capable of playing good defense. Minnesota just held Milwaukee to 100, and Houston has scored 109 and 119 in its last two games. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they don’t automatically suggest a blowout. The injury situation is concerning, especially without Edwards, but I think Minnesota can make this a physical game and keep it close enough. Give me the Timberwolves and the points.
Total Pick: Under 222.5
I like the under 222.5. Houston has allowed just 191 combined points over its last two games, and Minnesota just held Milwaukee to 100. Both teams have been doing a good job defensively, and I don’t see either one being particularly interested in getting into a running contest. Minnesota’s missing offense could also make scoring more difficult. The Rockets can certainly get hot, and that’s always a concern with an under, but I expect this to be a game where both teams have to work for their baskets. Something around 110-105 feels reasonable.
Final Picks: Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 | Under 222.5
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