Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Prediction for Monday May 4 2026
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The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, on Monday, May 4, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET, with coverage on NBCSN and Peacock. San Antonio enters as a heavy favorite at -13.5 with a total set at 217.5, while Minnesota is listed at +13.5 and +525 on the moneyline. This matchup opens a new series between a strong road-tested Timberwolves team and a dominant Spurs squad that has been nearly unbeatable at home. Be ready for all the NBA action with our free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota advanced with a 110-98 win over Denver in Game 6, closing out the series 4-2. The game was competitive early, with Denver holding a slight edge after the first quarter, but Minnesota gradually took control. The Timberwolves outscored the Nuggets in each of the final three quarters, building a steady lead and closing the game with strong execution on both ends of the floor.
Jaden McDaniels led Minnesota with 32 points on 13-of-25 shooting while adding 10 rebounds, providing a dominant two-way performance. Terrence Shannon Jr. contributed 24 points and added six rebounds, while Julius Randle chipped in 18 points and five assists. Rudy Gobert anchored the interior with 13 rebounds and eight assists, while Naz Reid added 15 points and seven rebounds off the bench. Minnesota finished with 50 total rebounds and shot 46 percent from the field.
San Antonio closed out its first-round series with a 114-95 win over Portland in Game 5. The Spurs took control early, scoring 36 points in the first quarter and 29 in the second to build a commanding halftime lead. From there, San Antonio maintained its advantage and never allowed Portland to mount a serious comeback, finishing the game with a decisive margin.
Victor Wembanyama led San Antonio with 17 points, 14 rebounds, and six blocks, impacting the game across multiple areas. De’Aaron Fox added 21 points and nine assists, while Julian Champagnie scored 19 points on efficient shooting. Stephon Castle contributed 15 points and five assists, and Dylan Harper added 17 points off the bench. The Spurs shot 55 percent from the field and recorded 27 assists, showcasing strong offensive efficiency. 
Minnesota Carries Balanced Attack Into Semifinals
Minnesota enters this matchup with a 49-33 record and a 23-18 record on the road. The Timberwolves have been in solid form, recently winning over Denver 110-98, 112-96, 113-96, and 119-114, while recently losing to Denver 125-113. That gives Minnesota four wins in its last five games, including the previous playoff game that secured their advancement.
The Timberwolves are averaging 118.0 points per game while allowing 107.5 points against. They shoot 48 percent from the field and average 44.1 rebounds and 26.1 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 5.8 blocks and 8.7 steals per game, showing activity on that end of the floor.
The key strength for Minnesota is its scoring balance and rebounding presence. The Timberwolves are producing strong offensive numbers while also maintaining a solid defensive scoring average. Their ability to control the glass and generate defensive plays gives them a foundation to stay competitive in high-level matchups.
San Antonio Looks to Extend Home Dominance
San Antonio enters Game 1 with a 62-20 record and an outstanding 32-8 home record. The Spurs have been rolling, recently winning over Portland 114-95, 114-93, and 120-108, while also recently winning 111-98 and losing 106-103. That gives San Antonio four wins in its last five games, including the previous playoff win that ended their first-round series.
The Spurs are averaging 119.8 points per game while allowing just 100.0 points against. They shoot 48 percent from the field and average 47.0 rebounds and 28.1 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 5.5 blocks and 7.5 steals per game, maintaining a strong two-way profile.
San Antonio’s biggest strength is its defensive efficiency combined with offensive production. The Spurs allow significantly fewer points per game than Minnesota while scoring slightly more. Their assist numbers also reflect strong ball movement, and their home record highlights their ability to control games in their own arena.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Prediction
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bryan Power | +4,192.00 |
| 2 |  Bruce Marshall | +4,189.00 |
| 3 |  Joe Duffy | +2,213.00 |
| 4 |  Sniper Wes | +1,832.00 |
| 5 |  Tom Macrina | +1,044.00 |
Spread Pick
- San Antonio Spurs -13.5
San Antonio is the pick on the spread because of its dominant home record and overall statistical edge. The Spurs are allowing just 100.0 points per game while scoring 119.8, creating a strong scoring margin. They also showed control in their previous playoff win, shooting 55 percent from the field and distributing the ball effectively. Minnesota has been playing well, but the Spurs’ defensive consistency and home dominance make them the stronger side in this matchup.
Total Pick (Over/Under)
- Over 217.5
The lean is toward the over based on both teams’ scoring profiles. Minnesota is averaging 118.0 points per game, while San Antonio averages 119.8. Both teams have shown the ability to score efficiently, and their recent playoff performances included high-scoring outputs. With both offenses producing and Minnesota also allowing over 100 points per game, the total leans toward a higher-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 120 – Minnesota Timberwolves 104
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