Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Prediction for Tuesday May 12 2026
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The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The series is tied 2-2 after Minnesota recently won over San Antonio in Game 4. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM, with coverage on NBC and Peacock. San Antonio is listed as a 10.5-point favorite, with the Spurs at -410 on the moneyline and Minnesota at +320. The total is set at 218.5 points. Be ready for the tipoff of this game and others with our free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota recently won over San Antonio by a 114-109 final score in Game 4 to even the series at 2-2. The Timberwolves started well with a 34-30 edge after the first quarter, and the teams played even in the second quarter. San Antonio moved back in front with a strong third quarter, but Minnesota closed the game with a 34-point fourth quarter to secure the win at home.
San Antonio had several strong individual efforts in the loss. De’Aaron Fox led the Spurs with 24 points, four rebounds, three assists, and three steals, while Dylan Harper added 24 points, seven rebounds, and three steals off the bench. Stephon Castle finished with 20 points, six rebounds, four assists, one steal, and one block. Devin Vassell added 14 points, while Victor Wembanyama finished with four points, four rebounds, one assist, and two turnovers.
Minnesota was led by Anthony Edwards, who scored 36 points on 13-of-22 shooting while adding six rebounds and two assists. Naz Reid gave the Timberwolves a strong bench lift with 15 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. Jaden McDaniels added 14 points and six rebounds, while Julius Randle finished with 12 points, eight rebounds, and three assists. Rudy Gobert added 11 points, 13 rebounds, and four assists as Minnesota finished with 49 rebounds and 20 assists.
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Minnesota Timberwolves Trying to Carry the Road Fight
Minnesota enters Game 5 with a 49-33 overall record and a 23-18 record away from home. The Timberwolves recently won over San Antonio 114-109 after recently lost to the Spurs 115-108 and recently lost to San Antonio 133-95. Minnesota also recently won over San Antonio 104-102 and recently won over Denver 110-98. The previous playoff result gives the Timberwolves momentum, but this matchup now shifts back to San Antonio.
The Timberwolves averaged 118.0 points per game while allowing 110.4 points against. Minnesota shot 48 percent from the field, averaged 44.1 rebounds, and handed out 26.1 assists per game. The Timberwolves also averaged 5.8 blocks and 8.7 steals per game. Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 28.8 points per game, while Rudy Gobert led the team with 11.5 rebounds per game, and Julius Randle averaged 5.0 assists.
Minnesota’s key strength is its scoring ability, with the Timberwolves averaging 118.0 points per game and coming off a 114-point performance in Game 4. The Timberwolves also showed rebounding strength in the previous matchup, finishing with 49 rebounds. The challenge is that San Antonio’s overall numbers remain strong, especially at home, where the Spurs have gone 32-8.
San Antonio Spurs Look to Protect Home Court
San Antonio enters Game 5 with a 62-20 overall record and a 32-8 record at home. The Spurs recently lost to Minnesota 114-109 after recently won over the Timberwolves 115-108 and recently won over Minnesota 133-95. San Antonio also recently lost to Minnesota 104-102 and recently won over Portland 114-95. With the series tied, the Spurs return home looking to answer after dropping Game 4.
The Spurs averaged 119.8 points per game while allowing only 102.3 points against. San Antonio shot 48 percent from the field, averaged 47.0 rebounds, and handed out 28.1 assists per game. The Spurs also averaged 5.5 blocks and 7.5 steals. Victor Wembanyama led San Antonio with 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, while Stephon Castle led the team with 7.4 assists per game.
San Antonio’s biggest strength is the combination of scoring and defense shown in the provided season numbers. The Spurs averaged more points than Minnesota while allowing fewer points against, and they also hold the stronger home record. The Game 4 loss was close, but San Antonio’s broader statistical profile and home-court edge give the Spurs a strong setup for Game 5.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick
- San Antonio Spurs -10.5
San Antonio gets the lean on the spread because the Spurs have the stronger overall profile from the provided data. San Antonio is 62-20 overall and 32-8 at home, while Minnesota is 49-33 overall and 23-18 on the road. The Spurs also average 119.8 points per game while allowing only 102.3 points against, giving them a strong points profile entering Game 5. Minnesota recently won over San Antonio 114-109, but the Spurs also recently won over the Timberwolves by 38 points in San Antonio during this series.
Total Pick (Over/Under)
- Over 218.5
The lean is toward the over 218.5 points. Minnesota averages 118.0 points per game, while San Antonio averages 119.8 points per game. The most recent meeting finished with 223 total points, and the previous two games before that finished with 223 and 228 total points. With both teams showing the ability to score and the series producing recent totals above this number, the over is the stronger pick.
Final Score Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 121 – Minnesota Timberwolves 109
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