NBA Parlay for Thursday 12/4/25

By: Kim Smith Published 12/04/2025, 02:25 AM ET

Thursday’s NBA slate features two high-profile matchups with strong betting angles. Both games present clear statistical advantages and recent-form trends that align well for a 2-leg parlay. After reviewing the latest ESPN analytics, injury updates, and team splits, here is your best NBA parlay for Thursday, December 4, 2025.

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NBA Parlay

Golden State Warriors vs Philadelphia 76ers – 76ers -3.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors – Raptors -1.5 (-115)

Leg 1 – Golden State Warriors vs Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia enters this matchup at 11–9, including a solid 6–6 home record, and they just handled Washington 121–102 in their last outing. The Sixers may be inconsistent at times, but they match up extremely well with a Warriors team that has been shaky away from home.

Golden State is 11–11, but the bigger concern is their 4–8 road record and recent play. They’ve dropped games to Oklahoma City, Houston, and Portland in the past two weeks, and their defense has been deteriorating. Golden State allows 114.0 PPG, and their offense outside of Steph Curry has been unreliable.

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Steph is still elite—27.9 PPG, 47% shooting—but the Warriors will likely be without Alex Toohey, while Quinten Post, Kuminga, and Horford are all game-time decisions. The lack of stability in the frontcourt hurts them, especially facing a Philadelphia team that thrives when pushing tempo and attacking the paint.

Philadelphia puts up 118.3 PPG, and Tyrese Maxey continues to play at an MVP-caliber scoring level with 32.5 PPG on strong efficiency. Even if Joel Embiid is only a GTD, the Sixers have enough wing scoring from Paul George (GTD), strong rebounding depth, and the home crowd behind them.

The matchup predictor gives Philly a 63.1% chance to win, and with the Warriors’ road struggles plus Philly’s offensive advantages, the 76ers are in a strong position to cover the -3.5 number.

Make sure you check out the full Golden State Warriors vs Philadelphia 76ers pick.

Leg 2 – Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors

The Lakers and Raptors come into this matchup with nearly identical records (15–5 vs. 15–7), but Toronto holds a significant situational advantage: playing at home, where they are an elite 8–2 team. Los Angeles is also strong on the road (8–2), but the Lakers are missing their most impactful player—Luka Dončić, who is out until December 5.

Without Dončić (35.3 PPG), the Lakers’ offense drops considerably. Marcus Smart is also out, limiting defense and ball movement. The Lakers still have enough talent to be competitive, but replacing 35 points and the gravity Luka creates is nearly impossible.

Toronto has stability and depth, and Brandon Ingram continues to lead with 21.5 PPG on 47% shooting. The Raptors generate 29.9 assists per game, one of the best marks in the league, and their home-court defense has been excellent—allowing just 113.1 PPG overall.

Both teams are 8–2 in their last 10, but Toronto has faced a tougher stretch of opponents and remains healthier overall. Even without Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett, Toronto has enough spacing, ball movement, and two-way versatility to exploit a Lakers team missing their star engine.

The league’s analytics edge this one slightly toward Toronto, and with the line at -1.5, the Raptors are positioned to cover.

Check out the full Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors pick.

Final Parlay Thoughts

A parlay only hits if both legs succeed, but this combination provides strong value backed by matchup data and recent trends. The Sixers have the offensive and home-court edge over Golden State, while the Raptors face a Luka-less Lakers squad that struggles without its star playmaker. If both favorites perform to their averages, this Thursday parlay offers excellent value heading into December 4, 2025.

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