Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026
Houston hasn’t lost a game yet. Five wins, no losses, and the Rockets just went into Milwaukee and beat the Bucks by 32 points.
Now somebody wants to tell me Oklahoma City should be favored because the Thunder won 64 games last season?
Come on. We’re betting Saturday’s game, not last season’s standings.
Don’t get me wrong. Oklahoma City is still a good basketball team. But the Thunder are missing important players, and they just got embarrassed in Dallas. Houston is scoring 123 points a night and shooting the ball like somebody turned the difficulty setting down.
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The Thunder visit Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday, October 31, for an 8:30 PM ET tipoff on NBA TV. I haven’t been able to verify a current sportsbook spread or total, so I’m not going to invent one. My pick is Houston to win, and I’m leaning toward the Over if the number is reasonable. Get ready for all of the NBA action with our free NBA picks.
Oklahoma City Thunder Have Some Real Problems Right Now
Oklahoma City is 4-1, including 1-1 on the road. The Thunder started with four straight wins, beating San Antonio, Denver, the Clippers and Phoenix. Nothing wrong with that. Then they went to Dallas Wednesday and lost 120-96. Twenty-four points. That’s not the kind of performance anybody expected from a team that dominated so much of last season.
The Thunder are averaging 108.2 points and allowing 104.6. Defensively, those numbers are still respectable. The offense is another story. Oklahoma City is shooting 44 percent from the field and only 30.9 percent from three. That’s a problem against Houston, which has been making better than 40 percent of its outside shots. The Thunder can defend, but they still have to score. And right now they’re not getting enough reliable shooting.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.3 points, and he’s the guy Houston has to worry about. He can get to his spots, draw fouls and make a defense miserable. But Jalen Williams is out after suffering a fractured fibula and ankle injury, while Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are sidelined. Chet Holmgren has been dealing with a knee problem, and his availability is worth checking. That’s a lot of missing help. Oklahoma City has depth, but there’s a limit to how many important players you can lose before it catches up with you.
Houston Rockets Are Making Everybody Look Bad
Houston is 5-0, including 2-0 at home. The Rockets have beaten Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta twice and Milwaukee. Wednesday’s 132-100 win over the Bucks was the kind of game that gets my attention. Houston didn’t just sneak past Milwaukee. The Rockets controlled it, scored 132 points and made the Bucks look completely overmatched.
The numbers are impressive. Houston is averaging 123 points and allowing 108.8. The Rockets are shooting 51.7 percent overall and 40.4 percent from three. They’re also handing out 28.2 assists a game. That’s what I like. The ball is moving, guys are getting good looks, and Houston isn’t depending on one player to take every important shot. Oklahoma City has been good defensively, but this is a much different offensive challenge than some of the teams the Thunder have faced.
Alperen Sengun has been averaging 24.5 points, nine rebounds and seven assists when available. That’s a lot of production from one player, especially a big man who can run the offense. Kevin Durant gives Houston another scorer who can take over when things slow down. Amen Thompson is averaging nine rebounds, and Fred VanVleet has been contributing seven assists per game. Sengun is dealing with a back problem, though, and Steven Adams is out with a calf injury. Marcus Smart and Reed Sheppard also have injury concerns. Houston needs to be careful with its frontcourt depth, but the Rockets have been winning despite those problems.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions
Houston Rockets Moneyline
I’m taking Houston. Oklahoma City has the defensive ability to make this ugly, and Gilgeous-Alexander can absolutely carry the Thunder for a night. That’s what worries me. But the Rockets have been the better offensive team, they’re playing at home, and Oklahoma City is missing too many important pieces. Houston has won all five games by at least four points, and the Rockets are coming off their best performance of the season. I don’t see a good reason to go against them right now. Give me Houston by six or seven.
Over 218.5 Points — Target Total
I’d look at Over 218.5 if that number is available. Houston is averaging 123 points, and even Oklahoma City’s strong defense might have trouble holding the Rockets below 110. The Thunder only scored 96 in Dallas, so there’s some risk here. But Gilgeous-Alexander should get his points, and Oklahoma City has had a couple of days to work on what went wrong. The other concern is Sengun missing the game and Houston losing some offensive production inside. Still, I think the Rockets can get into the 115-120 range. Something like Houston 118-109 would work for me.
Final Picks: Houston Rockets Moneyline and Over 218.5 Points (target total)
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