Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Picks and Predictions for Saturday April 25 2026
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The Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns meet in Game 3 of the Western Conference First Round at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Saturday, April 25, 2026, at 3:30 PM. Oklahoma City enters with a 2-0 series lead, and coverage is available on NBC and Peacock. The Thunder are listed as -9.5 favorites with a -395 moneyline, while the Suns are +9.5 with a +310 moneyline. The total is set at 214.5, with both sides priced at -110, setting the stage for a pivotal game as the series shifts to Phoenix. Get in on the action with our Free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Oklahoma City recently won over Phoenix 120-107 in Game 2, taking a firm 2-0 lead in the series. The game began competitively, with both teams trading points in the first half, but Oklahoma City pulled away in the third quarter by outscoring Phoenix 35-20. That stretch proved decisive, as the Thunder built enough separation to withstand a late push from the Suns in the fourth quarter.
For Phoenix, Dillon Brooks led the way with 30 points on 12-of-23 shooting, including five three-pointers, while adding six rebounds. Devin Booker contributed 22 points with seven rebounds and four assists, though he also had five turnovers. Jalen Green added 21 points but needed 23 shots to get there, and Collin Gillespie chipped in seven points with six assists. Royce O’Neale provided a boost off the bench with 16 points and nine rebounds, helping keep the Suns within reach.
For Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivered a standout performance with 37 points on 13-of-25 shooting while also adding nine assists and five rebounds. Chet Holmgren contributed 19 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks, while Jalen Williams added 19 points with four assists. Isaiah Hartenstein controlled the glass with 10 rebounds to go along with nine points, and Luguentz Dort added nine points, helping round out a balanced scoring effort.
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Oklahoma City Thunder Continue to Apply Pressure
Oklahoma City enters Game 3 with a 64-18 record and a 30-10 mark on the road. The Thunder have recently won over Phoenix 120-107 and recently won over Phoenix 119-84 in this series, building a strong early advantage. Prior to that, they recently lost to Phoenix 135-103, recently lost to Denver 127-107, and recently won over the Clippers 128-110, showing both offensive highs and some inconsistency before the playoffs began.
The Thunder average 119.0 points per game while allowing just 95.5 points against. They shoot 48 percent from the field and average 44.1 rebounds and 25.8 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 5.5 blocks and 9.7 steals per game, highlighting an active presence on both ends of the floor.
The key strength for Oklahoma City is its defensive scoring margin. Allowing only 95.5 points per game compared to scoring 119.0 gives the Thunder a clear edge based on the provided numbers. That differential has already shown up in this series, where they have controlled both games.
Phoenix Suns Look to Respond on Home Floor
Phoenix comes into this matchup with a 45-37 record and a 25-16 record at home. The Suns have recently lost to Oklahoma City 120-107 and recently lost to Oklahoma City 119-84 in this series. Before that, they recently won over Golden State 111-96, recently lost to Portland 114-110, and recently won over Oklahoma City 135-103, showing the ability to produce offensively but struggling to maintain consistency.
The Suns average 112.6 points per game while allowing 119.5 points against. They shoot 46 percent from the field and average 43.1 rebounds and 24.6 assists per game. Phoenix also contributes 4.2 blocks and 9.5 steals per game, providing a balanced statistical profile across multiple categories.
The biggest concern for Phoenix is its defensive output. Allowing 119.5 points per game is significantly higher than Oklahoma City’s scoring average, which has already been evident in this series. That gap in points allowed creates a difficult matchup, especially against an offense that has already produced at a high level.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick
- Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5
Oklahoma City is the pick based on its performance in the first two games of this series. The Thunder have recently won over Phoenix by margins of 13 and 35 points, showing clear control on both ends of the floor. Their scoring average of 119.0 points per game aligns directly with Phoenix allowing 119.5 points per game, reinforcing the matchup advantage. Combined with their 64-18 record and strong road performance, Oklahoma City has the statistical edge to cover the spread again.
Total Pick
- Pick: Over 214.5
The over is the lean because both teams have shown the ability to score at a high level. Oklahoma City averages 119.0 points per game, while Phoenix averages 112.6, and the most recent game finished with a combined total of 227 points. With the Thunder continuing to produce offensively and Phoenix needing to respond at home, this sets up as a game where scoring opportunities should remain consistent.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 118 – Phoenix Suns 108
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