Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions for Tuesday October 20 2026
Oklahoma City spent most of last season beating everybody in sight. Won 64 games, finished with the best record in basketball, and looked ready to make another trip to the Finals. Then San Antonio came along and ruined the whole thing. The Spurs beat the Thunder in seven games, including a 111-103 win in Oklahoma City to finish the series. Now these two get each other on opening night. The schedule makers knew what they were doing.
The Thunder head to Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET on NBC and Peacock. San Antonio is favored by 2.5 points, with the total at 231.5. That’s not much of a spread considering the Spurs beat Oklahoma City eight times in 12 meetings last season. Then again, it’s Oklahoma City. Nobody should be treating the Thunder like some middle-of-the-pack outfit. Check out our free NBA picks for more predictions.
Oklahoma City Has Had Enough Of San Antonio
The Thunder went 64-18 last season, but that record didn’t help much when they ran into the Spurs. San Antonio won four of five during the regular season and four more in the Western Conference Finals. Oklahoma City did win three playoff games, so it’s not as though the Thunder couldn’t compete. But look at how that series ended. The Spurs beat them 118-91 in Game 6, then went into Oklahoma City and won Game 7 by eight. Losing a deciding game on your own floor is a rotten way to finish a season.
Oklahoma City averaged 109 points against San Antonio in that series. The Thunder shot 42.6% from the floor and 34.4% from three. Not exactly what you want out of a team trying to get back to the Finals. The bigger issue was the rebounding. San Antonio grabbed 46.9 boards a night, while Oklahoma City managed 42.4. The Spurs also had 13.6 offensive rebounds per game. That’s a lot of extra chances to hand a good team. The Thunder can force turnovers and get out in transition, but they can’t keep giving San Antonio second and third looks at the basket.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 25.9 points and 8.9 assists in the conference finals. He also shot only 40.9% from the floor. That’s not terrible against a good defense, but it shows how much San Antonio bothered him. Chet Holmgren is going to have another difficult night dealing with Victor Wembanyama around the rim. Oklahoma City needs more than a good game from its best scorer. The Thunder need somebody to get a body on the Spurs’ big men and finish defensive possessions with a rebound. They didn’t do enough of that in May.
San Antonio Knows It Can Beat These Guys
The Spurs finished 62-20 last season and came within four wins of an NBA championship. They also have every reason to feel good about seeing Oklahoma City again. San Antonio won the season series 4-1, then took the playoff series 4-3. Eight wins in 12 games. You can call one or two wins a lucky break. Eight is a different story. The Spurs also looked good in their last two preseason games, beating Phoenix 123-103 and Sacramento 126-97. It’s preseason, sure, but nobody’s going to complain about winning by 20 and 29.
San Antonio averaged 112.7 points in the conference finals and held Oklahoma City to 109. The Spurs weren’t exactly shooting the lights out themselves. They hit 43.5% from the floor and 34.1% from three. But they won the rebounding battle and got to the foul line more often. That’s where the difference showed up. San Antonio didn’t need to make 20 threes to beat the Thunder. The Spurs made them work inside, kept attacking the glass, and found enough offense to win four games. That’s a pretty good plan. I’d expect them to use it again.
Wembanyama averaged 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks against Oklahoma City in the playoffs. Those numbers tell you plenty. The Thunder had trouble keeping him off the glass, and he made it difficult to get clean shots near the basket. Stephon Castle added 18 points and 7.6 assists per game in that series. San Antonio is also trying a three-guard look with De’Aaron Fox, Castle, and Dylan Harper. Harper shot 57.1% from three during preseason, although that’s a small sample and shouldn’t be treated like a regular-season shooting average. There’s a lot for Oklahoma City to worry about besides Wembanyama.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions
San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-110)
I’m laying the 2.5 with San Antonio. I know Oklahoma City wants this one after losing Game 7 at home. So what? Wanting revenge doesn’t get you rebounds. The Spurs outrebounded the Thunder by 4.5 a game in that playoff series, and Wembanyama averaged nearly 11 boards himself. Oklahoma City also shot only 42.6%. Those are actual problems, not something you fix by getting fired up before tipoff. The Thunder have enough talent to win, and I’d be nervous laying six or seven points. But two and a half at home? I’ll take San Antonio. The Spurs have already shown they know how to beat this team.
Under 231.5 Points (-110)
I’ll take the under 231.5, too. Five of the seven conference finals games stayed below that number, and two of San Antonio’s wins were downright ugly for Oklahoma City’s offense. The Thunder scored 82 in Game 4 and 91 in Game 6. Both teams can score, but when they get together, there’s a lot of physical basketball and not many easy trips to the rim. San Antonio held Oklahoma City to 42.6% shooting in that series. The Spurs weren’t much better at 43.5%. Now, the three-guard lineup could make San Antonio a little faster, and that’s worth watching. But I don’t see a reason to expect both teams to suddenly start shooting 50% against defenses that know them this well. Give me something around 114-109.
Final Picks: San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-110) and Under 231.5 Points (-110)
This preview was completed October 18, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting lineups may change before Tuesday’s game.
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