Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 29 2026
You want to bet Sacramento? After what happened against San Antonio? Come on. The Kings gave up 80 points in the first half Tuesday night. Eighty! I had to look at that score twice. They ended up losing 130-103, and it wasn’t like the Spurs got lucky with a couple of shots at the buzzer. Sacramento couldn’t keep anybody out of the lane. The Kings are 0-4 now, and I’m still waiting to see them play a decent defensive game.
Now, I’m not saying New Orleans is anything special. The Pelicans haven’t won a game either. But there’s a difference between losing games you could’ve won and getting run out of the building. New Orleans has been right there in all three losses. Sacramento? Not so much. These two meet Thursday at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET. The Pelicans have Denver Wednesday, so they’ll be on the second night of a back-to-back. I don’t love that part. But I’d still rather take New Orleans. Get in on all the action before it happens with our free NBA picks.
Sacramento Kings Have Been Awful Defensively
Look at Sacramento’s four games. The Clippers scored 121, Portland scored 128, Memphis scored 123, and San Antonio put up 130. Not one opponent has been held under 120. And three of those games weren’t even close. The Kings lost to the Clippers by 25, Memphis by 11, and San Antonio by 27. That’s not a team getting unlucky. That’s a team that can’t stop anybody long enough to stay in a game.
Sacramento is scoring 107.8 points a night. That’s not terrible if you’re playing good defense. But they’re giving up 125.5. How are you supposed to win like that? Against San Antonio, they allowed 60 points in the paint and 29 on fast breaks. That’s ridiculous. New Orleans likes to get into the lane, and the Pelicans have been scoring almost 125 a game. If the Kings couldn’t keep San Antonio away from the basket, why should I believe they’ll suddenly figure it out Thursday?
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And it’s not like Sacramento had nobody playing well Tuesday. Domantas Sabonis put up 20 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists. De’Andre Hunter scored 24. Zach LaVine had 22. That’s 66 points from three guys, and the Kings still lost by 27. They’re missing Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell, so there’s not much help around the basket. Ben Simmons is out for the season too. I don’t see Sacramento fixing that defense overnight.
New Orleans Pelicans Have Been Close
New Orleans is 0-3 heading into Wednesday, but at least the Pelicans have been giving themselves a chance. They lost to Indiana by three, Utah by one, and then blew a 23-point lead against Denver before losing 141-135 in overtime. That Denver game was brutal. You’re up 23 on the road, you have to finish that. But even with that collapse, New Orleans has been a lot more competitive than Sacramento.
The Pelicans are scoring 124.7 a game. That’s the number I keep coming back to. They can put points on the board. The problem is they’re giving up 128, so every game turns into a shootout. But Sacramento is allowing 125.5 and scoring only 107.8. See what I’m getting at? New Orleans has been losing close games because it can’t get stops. Sacramento has been losing by double digits because it can’t get stops or score enough to make up for it. I’d rather have the team that can score.
Trey Murphy III had 26 against Denver, Dejounte Murray scored 22, and Zion Williamson and Derik Queen each had 17. That’s four guys giving New Orleans something. Yves Missi is out with a knee injury, and Jordan Poole has been dealing with an illness. So no, the Pelicans aren’t healthy either. But they’ve got enough offense to make Sacramento work. The Kings haven’t shown they can handle that kind of pressure.
Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions
New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline
Give me New Orleans. I know, they’re 0-3. But they’ve been in every game, and Sacramento hasn’t. The Kings just gave up 80 points in a half, and they’ve allowed at least 121 in all four games. New Orleans is scoring nearly 125 a night. That’s a bad matchup for Sacramento. The one thing that could mess this up is the back-to-back. If the Pelicans have to play a tough game Wednesday, they might be tired Thursday. But Sacramento hasn’t given me any reason to trust its defense. I’ll take the team that’s been scoring and playing close games. New Orleans finally gets a win.
Over 233.5 Points — Target Total
I’m taking Over 233.5. Look at the scores. Sacramento has allowed 121, 128, 123 and 130. New Orleans has scored 120, 119 and 135. Both defenses have been bad, and I don’t see that changing overnight. Sacramento should be able to score against New Orleans too, because the Pelicans are giving up 128 a game. The only thing that worries me is the back-to-back. If New Orleans comes out flat, that could slow things down. But I think both teams get plenty of chances. Something like 124-114 New Orleans sounds about right.
Final Picks: New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline and Over 233.5 Points (target total)
Preview revised October 28, 2026.
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