Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions for Tuesday October 27 2026
I've watched enough bad defensive basketball to know when a team has a real problem, and Sacramento has one. The Kings have played three games and given up 121, 128 and 123 points. Three different opponents, same problem. Nobody's having much trouble getting a decent shot against them. Now they're heading to San Antonio, where Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are coming off a 122-point night against Dallas. I wouldn't want to be the guy trying to explain how Sacramento is supposed to stop them.
The Sacramento Kings visit the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Tipoff is at 8:00 PM ET. San Antonio is coming off its first win of the season, while Sacramento is still looking for one. I'm working with Spurs -7.5 and a total of 228.5 for this preview. Those are betting targets, not confirmed sportsbook lines. Get in on all the heart pounding action with our free NBA picks.
Sacramento Kings Have a Problem That Isn't Going Away
Sacramento is 0-3, and Sunday's 123-112 loss to Memphis looked an awful lot like the first two games. The Kings couldn't get enough stops. They gave up 128 to Portland on Friday, and that was after the Clippers beat them 121-96 in the opener. It's one thing to lose a close game because somebody hits a tough jumper. It's another to give up 120-plus every night. Sacramento went 22-60 last season, and nothing we've seen this week suggests the defense has suddenly improved.
The Kings are scoring 109.3 points per game and allowing 124. That's nearly a 15-point difference. And the part that really bothers me is what happened against the Clippers. Los Angeles made 28 of its 41 shots in the paint. Sacramento didn't block a single shot. Think about trying to defend Wembanyama when you couldn't even keep the Clippers away from the basket. The Kings might have some luck shooting their way into a competitive game, but they're not going to win many nights if the other team keeps getting layups.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Zach LaVine scored 28 in the opener, so Sacramento does have somebody who can get hot and carry the offense for a stretch. Domantas Sabonis had 14 points, 18 rebounds and eight assists in that same game. He's still a problem on the glass, and San Antonio can't just ignore him. But the Kings are missing help around those two. Keegan Murray is dealing with an ankle injury, Maxime Raynaud has a knee injury, and Dylan Cardwell is out with a calf problem. Ben Simmons is also sidelined following Achilles surgery. That's a rough collection of absences when you're already getting pushed around defensively.
San Antonio Spurs Should Have Their Way Inside
San Antonio is 1-2, and I'll admit I wasn't impressed with the first two games. The Spurs lost to Oklahoma City and then dropped a close one to Houston. But Saturday in Dallas looked different. They won 122-106, and the Mavericks had no answer once San Antonio started taking over in the fourth quarter. The Spurs were only up three entering the final period, then outscored Dallas 30-17. That's the part I liked. They didn't spend the last five minutes hanging on. They went out and finished the game.
Here's something else worth looking at. San Antonio grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and scored 25 second-chance points against Dallas. The Mavericks managed only ten second-chance points. That's a big difference in a game that was close for three quarters. San Antonio also forced 18 turnovers and came away with 12 steals. Now look across the court at Sacramento. The Kings are already having trouble defending the first shot. What happens when the Spurs start getting two or three chances on the same possession? That's how a six-point lead turns into 14 before you know it.
Wembanyama finished with 23 points, seven rebounds and four blocks Saturday. Dylan Harper scored 22, while De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle had 19 apiece. That's four guys giving you serious offensive production, and Fox also handed out nine assists. Sacramento can't load everybody up against Wembanyama without leaving somebody else a good look. There are a couple of availability concerns for San Antonio, including Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance, while Fox has recently dealt with a wrist issue. Still, the Spurs have the healthier-looking interior matchup, and that's where I expect them to do most of their damage.
Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions
San Antonio Spurs -7.5
I'm taking San Antonio -7.5, and it's mostly because I don't trust Sacramento to stop anybody right now. The Kings have allowed 372 points in three games. That's not some complicated advanced statistic. That's just bad defense. And the Spurs aren't coming into this game wondering whether they can score. They just put 122 on Dallas, grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and had four players score at least 19. Sacramento's frontcourt injuries make that matchup even worse. Now, could LaVine have one of those nights where he hits everything and keeps the Kings hanging around? Sure. Sabonis could also make life difficult on the boards. But Sacramento has to defend for 48 minutes, not just score enough to stay close for two quarters. I don't see the Kings getting the stops they'll need. San Antonio should win this one comfortably.
Over 228.5
I'll take Over 228.5, although I like the Spurs side a little more. Sacramento has already played two games that finished with 235 or more combined points. The Kings scored 120 against Portland and 112 against Memphis, so they don't necessarily need to shoot the lights out to help us here. San Antonio should be able to get into the 120s if Sacramento keeps defending the way it has. My only concern is Wembanyama making things miserable around the basket and holding the Kings under 105. That's possible. But San Antonio also allowed Dallas to shoot better than 51% Saturday, so the Spurs aren't exactly shutting everybody down themselves. Give me something around 124-110 San Antonio. That's enough to get us over.
Final Picks: San Antonio Spurs -7.5 and Over 228.5
Preview completed October 26, 2026.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass!
