San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 10 2026
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The San Antonio Spurs will face the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Sunday, May 10, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM with television coverage available on NBC and Peacock. San Antonio enters this matchup as a 4.5-point road favorite and is listed at -185 on the moneyline, while Minnesota comes in at +154. The total for the game is set at 218.5 points after opening at 214.5. The Spurs currently lead the series 2-1 heading into this important Game 4 matchup. Get in on all the NBA action with our free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
San Antonio recently earned a 115-108 victory over Minnesota in Game 3 to reclaim control of the series. The game remained competitive through the first half before the Spurs created separation during the third quarter behind efficient scoring and strong interior play. Minnesota battled throughout the fourth quarter, but San Antonio maintained its advantage late to secure the road victory and take the 2-1 series lead.
The Spurs were led by Victor Wembanyama, who delivered a dominant all-around performance with 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks while shooting 13-for-18 from the field. De’Aaron Fox added 17 points and five assists, while Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle each scored 13 points. Castle also contributed 12 assists as San Antonio finished the game with 26 assists and shot 46 percent from the floor.
Minnesota received a strong effort from Anthony Edwards, who scored 32 points while adding 14 rebounds and six assists. Naz Reid contributed 18 points and nine rebounds off the bench, while Jaden McDaniels finished with 17 points and seven rebounds. The Timberwolves struggled with shooting efficiency overall, finishing at just 38 percent from the field despite collecting 54 rebounds in the loss.
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Spurs Continue to Control the Series
San Antonio enters Game 4 with a 62-20 overall record and a 29-12 road record. The Spurs recently won over Minnesota 115-108 after previously recently won over Minnesota 133-95 in Game 2. Before that, San Antonio recently lost to Minnesota 104-102 in Game 1, recently won over Portland 114-95, and recently won over Portland 114-93. The Spurs have now won four of their last five games overall entering Sunday night.
San Antonio is averaging 119.8 points per game while allowing only 100.9 points against. The Spurs are shooting 48 percent from the field while averaging 47.0 rebounds and 28.1 assists per game. Defensively, San Antonio continues to create problems with 5.5 blocks and 7.5 steals per contest.
One of the biggest strengths for San Antonio entering this matchup is overall balance on both ends of the floor. The Spurs own a significant scoring advantage over Minnesota while also allowing nearly 10 fewer points per game defensively. Their ball movement and rebounding continue to be major reasons they currently lead the series.
Timberwolves Trying to Defend Home Court
Minnesota enters Game 4 with a 49-33 overall record and a 26-15 home record this season. The Timberwolves recently lost to San Antonio 115-108 after previously recently lost to San Antonio 133-95 in Game 2. Minnesota did recently win over San Antonio 104-102 in Game 1 before recently won over Denver 110-98 and recently lost to Denver 125-113.
The Timberwolves are averaging 118.0 points per game while allowing 110.6 points against. Minnesota is also shooting 48 percent from the field while averaging 44.1 rebounds and 26.1 assists per game. Defensively, the Timberwolves have produced 8.7 steals and 5.8 blocks per contest.
One concern for Minnesota entering this matchup is defensive consistency throughout the series. The Timberwolves have now allowed 133 and 115 points in two of the three games against San Antonio. While Minnesota remains competitive offensively, slowing down the Spurs has become a major challenge during this series.
San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction
Side Pick
Pick: San Antonio Spurs -4.5
San Antonio has controlled most of this series outside of the narrow Game 1 loss and enters Game 4 with momentum after consecutive victories. The Spurs continue to hold major advantages defensively while also averaging nearly 120 points per game overall this season. Minnesota has struggled to slow down San Antonio’s offense consistently, particularly during Games 2 and 3. With the Spurs already winning twice in this matchup by seven points or more, the road favorite looks like the stronger side again.
Total Pick
Pick: Over 218.5
The over stands out here because both teams continue to generate strong offensive production throughout the series. San Antonio has scored 115 and 133 points in the last two games against Minnesota, while the Timberwolves still possess enough offensive firepower to contribute offensively at home. Recent games in this series have consistently pushed toward higher totals, and both teams are shooting 48 percent from the field overall entering Game 4.
Final Score Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 118 – Minnesota Timberwolves 111
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