San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks Picks, Prediction, and Odds for NBA Finals Game 4 Wednesday June 10 2026
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Game 4 of the NBA Finals tips off Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, and after what went down in a tense Game 3 finish, this is one of the most compelling spots of the entire postseason for bettors looking for value. If you have been tracking our NBA picks throughout the playoffs, you know we do not overreact to single-game results — and the way Game 3 unfolded tells a more nuanced story than the final score suggests. New York played arguably its worst game in two months, committed five turnovers from its star point guard, missed its first ten three-point attempts in the fourth quarter, got outshot at the free throw line by ten attempts, and still only lost by four. That is not a team in crisis. That is a team that had a bad night and held on. Here is the full breakdown of where the value lies in Game 4.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: New York -1.5
- Total Pick: Over 216.5
- Projected Final Score: New York 112, San Antonio 107
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (Over) | Total (Under) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | +1.5 (-104) | 216.5 (-112) | 216.5 (-108) |
| New York Knicks | -1.5 (-118) | — | — |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | San Antonio | New York |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | 11:34:25PM | 1.5 -106 | -1.5 -114 |
| 06/08 | 11:59:41PM | 1.5 -104 | -1.5 -118 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | 11:34:25PM | 215.5 -114 | 215.5 -106 | — |
| 06/08 | 11:37:02PM | 216.5 -110 | 216.5 -110 | — |
| 06/09 | 12:56:39AM | 216.5 -112 | 216.5 -108 | — |
| 06/09 | 01:10:27PM | 216.5 -110 | 216.5 -110 | OV 92%, OV 95% |
| 06/09 | 10:59:51PM | 216.5 -112 | 216.5 -108 | OV 97%, OV 95% |
The spread line has remained locked at 1.5 throughout the tracking window, with only the juice shifting — the Knicks' price moved from -114 to -118, reflecting steady money coming in on New York without enough volume to push the number itself. That kind of juice movement without a line shift typically means the books are comfortable at 1.5 and are simply adjusting the price to balance action. On the total, the line opened at 215.5 and moved a full point to 216.5 overnight, where it has held firm. Public Over money has been overwhelming, climbing to 97% of dollars and 95% of tickets in the most recent tracking entry. The Under is juiced to just -108 at the latest update, which means the book is not charging a significant premium to fade the public Over — a small but notable signal for total bettors to keep in mind.
Spurs vs Knicks Key Matchups and Game Preview
New York
The narrative around New York after Game 3 has been driven by anxiety and the weight of 53 years without a championship, but the underlying performance data tells a very different story. The Knicks entered Game 4 with a 16.8 net rating through the postseason, which is the best offensive and defensive rating combination in the playoffs. For context, the last two champions — the 2024 Boston Celtics and last year's Oklahoma City Thunder — posted identical 8.6 net ratings when they won titles. New York has not just been good in these playoffs; the Knicks have been historically dominant by the metrics that matter most. Their three playoff losses this postseason have come by a combined six points, which means every time New York has lost, it has been a game that could have gone the other way with one or two possessions breaking differently. That is not a fragile team. That is a team that competes in every game regardless of circumstance.
Game 3 deserves a closer look before drawing conclusions. Mikal Bridges had his worst game of the playoff run. Landry Shamet shot 1-for-8 from the field. Jalen Brunson committed five turnovers. The Knicks missed their first ten three-point attempts in the fourth quarter. New York was minus-5 in turnover differential and minus-10 in free throw attempts. They lost by four. That combination of self-inflicted damage and still staying within a possession of winning is a testament to how much better this team is than its opponent when both sides are performing close to their potential. The expectation heading into Game 4 is that Bridges, Brunson and the supporting cast all regress back toward their established playoff levels — and if they do, the result looks considerably different than Game 3.
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San Antonio
San Antonio deserves credit for winning Game 3 and delivering what was described as a big blow to New York's momentum. The Spurs competed hard and took advantage of a Knicks team that was clearly pressing in front of a frenzied home crowd. However, the case can be made that San Antonio has now thrown its best punch, and the remaining margin for outperforming expectations may be narrower in Game 4. The Spurs benefited from a significant free throw disparity and a turnover edge that is unlikely to repeat at the same magnitude. Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of San Antonio's ability to compete at this level, but the officiating lens on him is about to tighten considerably.
SAS vs NYK Officiating and Discipline
One of the most significant storylines entering Game 4 is the NBA's active review of Victor Wembanyama's conduct in recent games. In Game 2, Knicks center Mitchell Robinson received a technical foul on a play that originated with a two-handed shove to the chest by Wembanyama. In Game 3, Wembanyama threw Jalen Brunson to the ground with an aggressive stiff arm that went unseen and unreviewed by the officiating crew in real time. As of Tuesday, the NBA was actively reviewing that play for potential disciplinary action. Whether or not a suspension or fine results, the practical impact is clear: officials will be watching Wembanyama more closely in Game 4, and that heightened scrutiny changes the dynamic of how San Antonio's star can operate near the basket and in physical situations. That is not a minor development in a series decided by fine margins.
Betting Trends – SAS vs NYK
New York's postseason track record entering Game 4 is extraordinary. The Knicks ran a 13-game winning streak in the playoffs before dropping Game 3, and the consistency of their net rating — 16.8, nearly double what the last two champions posted — suggests this team is operating at a level that single-game variance does not define. Their three losses in this postseason have all been close, which reinforces that New York does not get blown out; it simply loses tight games on bad nights. San Antonio's win in Game 3 came with a significant edge in free throw attempts and turnover differential — two variables that tend to normalize over the course of a series. Backing New York at home after a loss, with better underlying numbers and a full game's worth of adjustments from Tom Thibodeau's staff, aligns with how this team has responded to adversity throughout the postseason. The public has been heavily on the Over in this total market, and with both teams capable of scoring efficiently when running their respective offenses, the 216.5 is a number that can be reached without requiring an outlier performance from either side.
Key Injuries and Things To Know – SAS vs NYK
The most critical injury and availability storyline entering Game 4 centers on Victor Wembanyama's status following the NBA's disciplinary review. As of Tuesday, it remained unclear whether any suspension or fine would be issued, but the review itself guarantees tighter officiating attention in Game 4 regardless of the outcome. For New York, the more pressing question is whether the Game 3 struggles from Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson were situational — a product of playing in front of a high-pressure home crowd for the first time in a winner-take-all context — or something deeper. The evidence points heavily to situational. Brunson's five turnovers were an outlier for a player who has been one of the most composed playoff performers in the league, and Bridges' off night came against a defense that was scheming specifically to take away his most comfortable spots. Landry Shamet's 1-for-8 shooting is another number likely to normalize. With a game already under their belt at the Garden and the adjustments that come with watching film overnight, the Knicks are well-positioned to look like a different team on Wednesday.
Spurs vs Knicks Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: New York -1.5 — The Knicks have the superior net rating, the better roster when healthy and performing near their ceiling, and a home crowd that will be energized after the Game 3 loss. San Antonio's edge in Game 3 came from factors unlikely to repeat at the same level, and New York's adjustments should close the gap significantly. Back the Knicks to win and cover at home.
- Total Pick: Over 216.5 — The total moved from 215.5 to 216.5 on early Over money and has held at that number with public action sitting at 97% Over on dollars in the most recent update. Both teams are capable of scoring efficiently when their offenses are operating well, and a bounceback game from Brunson and Bridges should contribute to a higher-scoring output than Game 3. Take the Over.
Final Score Prediction
New York responds emphatically at home after a humbling Game 3 loss. Brunson controls the game from start to finish, Bridges finds his rhythm from the perimeter, and the Knicks' defensive and offensive ratings reassert themselves in a game where San Antonio cannot replicate the same turnover and free throw edges that decided Game 3. The Spurs compete but run out of answers in the fourth quarter.
Predicted Final Score: New York 112, San Antonio 107
How to Wager On San Antonio vs New York
For Game 4 of the NBA Finals, the primary play is New York -1.5, ideally grabbed before the juice pushes further toward -120 or beyond as game time approaches. The total at Over 216.5 has strong public support and solid fundamental backing given both teams' offensive capabilities and the expected bounceback from New York's key contributors. If you want to add a layer of confirmation before placing your wagers, leveraging data-driven tools is the smartest way to approach a high-stakes Finals game where every edge matters.
Start with AI picks to see what the models are projecting for Game 4. For a deeper look at two of the best projection platforms currently available, read our full Dimers review and our detailed Oddible review. Both platforms offer model-based projections and historical matchup data that can add significant value to your NBA Finals wagering process, especially in a series with as many moving parts as this one.
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