San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction for Monday May 18 2026
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The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder begin the Western Conference Finals on Monday, May 18, 2026, at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET with coverage available on NBC and Peacock. Oklahoma City enters the series opener as a 6.5-point favorite while the Thunder are listed at -265 on the moneyline. San Antonio comes back at +215, and the total for Game 1 is set at 219.5 points. Both teams enter the conference finals after impressive performances in the previous round and will now battle for a spot in the NBA Finals. Get ready for all the action with our free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Oklahoma City closed out its semifinal series with a 115-110 victory over Los Angeles in Game 4 to complete the sweep. The Thunder trailed after the opening quarter but gradually controlled the pace during the second half before finishing strong in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City scored 35 points in the final period and continued the balanced offensive approach that carried the team through the entire series.
The Thunder received another outstanding performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored 35 points while adding eight assists and shooting 11-for-22 from the field. Ajay Mitchell also delivered a major contribution with 28 points and four assists while shooting 12-for-19 overall. Isaiah Hartenstein added 10 rebounds and five assists, while Chet Holmgren finished with 16 points and nine rebounds. Oklahoma City also received valuable bench scoring from Jared McCain, who added 13 points in 16 minutes.
San Antonio advanced to the Western Conference Finals after a dominant 139-109 win over Minnesota in Game 6. The Spurs controlled the game offensively from the start and never slowed down after scoring 74 first-half points. Stephon Castle led the way with 32 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists while shooting 11-for-16 from the field. De’Aaron Fox contributed 21 points and nine assists, and Victor Wembanyama added 19 points, six rebounds, and three blocks. Julian Champagnie also provided 18 points while knocking down four three-pointers during the victory.
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Spurs Carrying Offensive Momentum Into Game 1
San Antonio finished the regular season with a 62-20 record and posted a strong 29-12 record on the road. The Spurs recently won over Minnesota 139-109 in the previous round after also recently winning over the Timberwolves by scores of 126-97, 115-108, and 133-95 during the series. Their only recent loss came in a 114-109 road defeat against Minnesota on May 10.
The Spurs averaged 119.8 points per game during the season while allowing 102.5 points against per contest. San Antonio shot 48 percent from the field and averaged 47.0 rebounds along with 28.1 assists per game. The Spurs also averaged 5.5 blocks and 7.5 steals per contest. Victor Wembanyama led the team with 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, while Stephon Castle averaged 7.4 assists.
One major strength for San Antonio entering this matchup is offensive efficiency. The Spurs scored at least 126 points in three of their four wins against Minnesota and finished the Game 6 closeout by shooting 56 percent from the field. Their rebounding numbers also stand out entering the series, especially against an Oklahoma City team that averaged fewer rebounds during the regular season.
Thunder Return Home After Dominant Semifinal Sweep
Oklahoma City enters Game 1 with a 64-18 overall record and an outstanding 34-7 home record during the regular season. The Thunder recently won over the Lakers 115-110 to finish a four-game sweep after also recently winning over Los Angeles by scores of 131-108, 125-107, and 108-90. Oklahoma City has now won five straight games entering the conference finals.
The Thunder averaged 119.0 points per game this season while allowing 104.6 points against per contest. Oklahoma City also shot 48 percent from the field while averaging 44.1 rebounds and 25.8 assists per game. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 9.7 steals and 5.5 blocks per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 31.1 points and 6.6 assists per contest, while Chet Holmgren averaged 8.9 rebounds.
A major strength for Oklahoma City entering this series is defensive activity combined with efficient scoring balance. The Thunder forced turnovers consistently throughout the playoffs and enter Game 1 after allowing 110 points or fewer in four straight victories over Los Angeles. Oklahoma City also benefits from home court after posting one of the strongest home records in the league this season.
San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick:
- Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
Oklahoma City enters Game 1 playing extremely well on both ends of the floor and carries momentum from a semifinal sweep into this matchup. The Thunder posted a 34-7 home record during the regular season and have won five straight games overall entering the conference finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues leading an efficient offense, while Oklahoma City’s defensive activity with 9.7 steals per game creates additional scoring opportunities. San Antonio has been excellent offensively, but the Thunder’s consistency at home gives Oklahoma City the edge in the opener.
Total Pick:
- Over 219.5
Both teams enter this series after producing strong offensive performances throughout the playoffs. San Antonio scored 139 points in the previous game and averaged 119.8 points per contest during the season. Oklahoma City averaged 119.0 points per game and has scored at least 115 points in four straight victories. The Spurs and Thunder both shot 48 percent from the field during the season, and each team has shown the ability to push the pace offensively. With multiple elite scoring options on both sides, this matchup sets up well for another high-scoring playoff game.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 118 – San Antonio Spurs 111
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