Buffalo Sabres vs Boston Bruins Picks and Predictions for Sunday April 26 2026
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The Buffalo Sabres travel to face the Boston Bruins at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on Sunday, April 26, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 2:00 PM and national coverage available on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max. This Eastern Conference First Round Game 4 matchup features Buffalo holding a 2-1 series lead as they look to build on their momentum, while Boston aims to respond on home ice. According to the latest odds, Buffalo is listed around -112 on the moneyline with a total set at 5.5 goals, while Boston sits near -108 with a spread of -1.5 at plus money. Get in on all the NHL playoff action with our Free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Buffalo secured a 3-1 victory in Game 3, taking a 2-1 lead in the series with a composed performance on the road. The game opened with a scoreless first period before both teams traded goals in the second, keeping things even heading into the final frame. In the third period, Buffalo took control by scoring twice while holding Boston off the board, sealing a decisive win. The Sabres dictated the pace late and capitalized on their chances, while their defensive structure limited Boston’s ability to respond.
Buffalo’s offensive push was led by Noah Ostlund, who delivered a strong performance with a goal and an assist, helping drive the attack at key moments. Alex Tuch added a goal of his own and contributed with steady pressure throughout the game, while Bowen Byram stood out from the blue line with a goal and an assist along with a dominant plus-three rating. Additional support came from Jack Quinn, who chipped in an assist, as Buffalo’s scoring depth played a key role. In net, Alex Lyon was outstanding, stopping 24 of 25 shots and finishing with a .960 save percentage, providing the backbone for the win.
Boston’s lone goal came from Tanner Jeannot, who found the back of the net but saw limited support offensively. Charlie McAvoy contributed an assist and logged heavy minutes, trying to generate opportunities from the defensive end. Several Bruins players created chances, including David Pastrnak, who registered multiple shots on goal, but the team struggled to convert against Buffalo’s defensive effort. In goal, Jeremy Swayman turned in a solid performance despite the loss, making 27 saves on 29 shots and posting a .931 save percentage, keeping Boston within reach until the late stages.
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Sabres Looking to Extend Series Control
Buffalo enters this matchup with an impressive 50-23-9 record, including a 24-13-4 mark on the road. The Sabres have been competitive in their recent stretch, recently winning over Boston in Game 3 by a 3-1 score while also recently winning over Boston 4-3 earlier in the series. They did recently lose to Boston 4-2 in Game 2, showing just how tightly contested this series has been. Outside of this matchup, Buffalo recently lost to Dallas in a shootout but followed that with a convincing win over Chicago.
From a statistical standpoint, Buffalo averages 3.45 goals per game while allowing 2.93 goals against per game. They generate 28.1 shots per game and allow 29.1 shots against, showing a balanced style of play. On special teams, the Sabres have recorded 48 power-play goals with a 19.5 percent conversion rate, while their penalty kill operates at 81.9 percent. They have also produced 11 shorthanded goals, highlighting their ability to create offense even when down a man.
A key strength for Buffalo lies in its balance across both ends of the ice. Their ability to consistently generate offense while maintaining a solid defensive structure has been evident throughout the series. This balance gives them flexibility in different game situations, particularly when protecting a lead, as seen in their most recent victory.
Bruins Look to Regain Control at TD Garden
Boston enters Game 4 with a 45-27-10 record and an excellent 29-11-1 home record, giving them a strong foundation heading into this matchup. The Bruins recently lost to Buffalo 3-1 in Game 3, but they did recently win over Buffalo 4-2 in Game 2, showing their ability to respond within the series. Prior to this matchup, Boston recently won over New Jersey and Columbus, indicating they have been in solid form overall.
Statistically, Boston averages 3.27 goals per game while allowing 3.01 goals against per game. They generate 27.0 shots per game and allow 29.7 shots against, which is slightly higher defensively compared to their opponent. On the power play, the Bruins have recorded 55 goals with a 23.4 percent success rate, making it one of their more effective areas. However, their penalty kill sits at 76.9 percent, which could present challenges in a tight playoff setting.
One area that stands out for Boston is their power-play efficiency, which provides a consistent scoring threat. However, their defensive numbers and goals allowed per game suggest there may be vulnerabilities that Buffalo can exploit. Playing at home offers an opportunity to tighten things up, but they will need a more complete performance to even the series.
Buffalo Sabres vs Boston Bruins Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
- Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo comes into this game with momentum after recently winning over Boston and taking a 2-1 series lead. Their balanced approach, combining steady offensive production with reliable defensive play, has given them an edge in this matchup. While Boston has been strong at home, their recent loss and slightly higher goals allowed per game could be a concern against a Sabres team that has already proven it can win in this building. With the current flow of the series and Buffalo’s consistency on both ends, the lean is toward the Sabres on the moneyline.
Total Pick
- Under 5.5
The total is set at 5.5 goals, and recent games in this series have produced a mix of scoring outcomes, including a lower-scoring 3-1 result and tighter games like 4-3 and 4-2. Buffalo’s defensive effort in the most recent matchup, combined with Boston’s difficulty converting chances despite generating shots, points toward a controlled pace. With playoff intensity and defensive structure playing a larger role, the lean is toward the under 5.5 goals.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Sabres 3 – Boston Bruins 2
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