Buffalo Sabres vs Dallas Stars Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 14 2026
Buffalo heads to Dallas Saturday night for an 8 PM ET game at American Airlines Center. Neither team is coming off a particularly enjoyable Thursday. The Sabres lost 3-2 in overtime at Chicago, while the Stars got run out of their own building by Winnipeg, 8-3. Dallas was supposed to be one of the stronger defensive teams in the Western Conference, so giving up eight goals at home wasn’t exactly part of the plan. Buffalo has been having defensive problems of its own. Somebody is going to get a much-needed win here. Get ready for all the NHL action with our free NHL picks.
Buffalo Needs to Get Its Defense Straightened Out
The Sabres are 8-7-4 overall and 4-1-4 on the road. They have earned points in five of their last ten games, but the results haven’t been especially encouraging. Thursday’s overtime loss in Chicago was particularly disappointing because the Blackhawks had lost six straight coming in. Buffalo had a chance to finish that game in regulation and couldn’t do it. The Sabres have been competitive enough to stay around the playoff picture, but they haven’t been stringing together the kind of performances that make you trust them.
Buffalo is scoring 2.89 goals per game and allowing 3.58. That’s a pretty uncomfortable difference, especially when you’re facing a team that can generate offense on the power play. The Sabres are converting only 15.9% of their power-play opportunities, and their penalty kill is down at 69.7%. That’s the number I’d worry about most. Dallas has been converting better than one out of every four power plays. Buffalo can’t spend Saturday night taking penalties and expect its goaltending to bail it out. The Sabres have been getting enough shots, averaging 28.3 per game, but the finishing hasn’t been consistent.
Buffalo managed two goals against Chicago Thursday but couldn’t find the winner despite facing a team that’s been struggling defensively. The Sabres have been relying on their goaltending to keep them in games, and that hasn’t always been enough. Their defensive coverage needs to improve, particularly when opponents get traffic around the crease. Saturday’s starting goaltender and final injury report still need confirmation. Buffalo has the ability to make Dallas work, but it needs to be much more disciplined than it has been lately.
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Dallas Has Something to Prove After Thursday
The Stars are 10-6-2 overall and 6-5-0 at home after Thursday’s 8-3 loss to Winnipeg. Dallas had won three of its previous four games, including a 4-3 victory over San Jose Saturday, and looked like it was settling into a good stretch. Then the Jets came to town. Dallas actually led 2-0 before Winnipeg scored five times in the second period and three more in the third. That’s an ugly way to lose, especially at home. The Stars have been too good defensively over most of the season to expect that kind of performance every night, but they need to respond quickly.
Dallas is averaging 2.89 goals per game and allowing 2.72. Those numbers still look pretty respectable even after the Winnipeg disaster. The Stars have a 26.2% power play and an 88.5% penalty kill, which gives them a significant special-teams advantage over Buffalo. Dallas also wins 57.7% of its faceoffs, one of the better marks in the league. That’s useful against a Sabres team that’s been having trouble keeping the puck out of its own end. The Stars don’t need to score five or six to win most nights. They need to get back to controlling the puck and limiting good chances.
Dallas has been dealing with an upper-body injury to Miro Heiskanen, and his Saturday availability still needs checking. His absence matters because the Stars rely on their defensemen to move the puck and help keep opponents from building pressure. Thursday’s eight goals allowed showed what can happen when that defensive structure breaks down. Dallas still has enough experience and offensive depth to respond, and its power play should get some opportunities against Buffalo’s struggling penalty kill. The bigger question is whether the Stars can get their defensive confidence back after such a rough night.
Buffalo Sabres vs Dallas Stars Picks and Prediction
Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline
I’m taking Dallas. Look, giving up eight goals to Winnipeg is embarrassing, but I’m not going to throw away everything the Stars did before Thursday because of one bad game. Dallas is still allowing only 2.72 goals a night, even with that disaster included, and its penalty kill has been excellent. Buffalo is allowing 3.58 goals per game and killing fewer than 70% of its penalties. That’s a pretty bad combination against a team with Dallas’ special-teams ability. The Sabres have been competitive on the road, and they could absolutely make this uncomfortable if Dallas starts slowly again. But I expect a much better effort from the Stars. Give me Dallas at home.
Total Pick: Over 5.5 Goals
I like the over at 5.5. Buffalo has been allowing more than three and a half goals a game, and Dallas just gave up eight. I don’t expect the Stars to repeat Thursday’s defensive performance, but the Sabres should still have opportunities. The bigger reason I like the over is Buffalo’s penalty kill. Dallas is converting 26.2% of its power plays, and a couple of chances with the extra man could make a big difference. The concern is that Dallas might tighten things up and turn this into a slow, defensive game. That’s possible. But at 5.5, I think the Stars can get three or four themselves, and Buffalo should contribute enough to push it over.
Final Picks: Dallas Stars Moneyline and Over 5.5 Goals
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