Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Prediction for Saturday May 16 2026
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The Buffalo Sabres travel to face the Montreal Canadiens in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Second Round at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec on Saturday, May 16, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on ABC. Montreal enters the game leading the series 3-2 and will look to close out the matchup at home, while Buffalo faces elimination after dropping Game 5. The Canadiens are listed at -162 on the moneyline while Buffalo enters at +136. The total for the matchup is set at 6.5 goals. Be ready for all the NHL action with our free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Montreal picked up a critical 6-3 victory in Game 5 on Buffalo’s home ice to take control of the series. The Canadiens built momentum after trailing early and eventually pulled away with a dominant second-period performance that shifted the game entirely in their favor. Montreal scored three goals in the second period and added another in the third to secure the road win and move within one victory of advancing.
The Canadiens received strong offensive production throughout the lineup in the victory. Cole Caufield scored once and added three shots, while Nick Suzuki recorded one goal and two assists in an impactful performance. Ivan Demidov contributed one goal and one assist, and Phillip Danault added two assists while winning 14 faceoffs. Juraj Slafkovsky finished with three assists, and Josh Anderson and Jake Evans each scored goals as Montreal’s depth played a major role. In goal, Jakub Dobes stopped 33 of 36 shots and finished with a .917 save percentage.
Buffalo started well offensively but struggled to slow Montreal after the opening period. Josh Doan and Jason Zucker each scored goals for the Sabres, while Konsta Helenius also added a goal in the loss. Jack Quinn contributed an assist and finished with a plus-two rating, while Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson, and Conor Timmins all recorded assists from the blue line. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed five goals on 23 shots before Alex Lyon entered in relief during the third period.
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Buffalo Attempting to Extend the Series
The Sabres enter this elimination game with a 50-23-9 overall record and a 24-13-4 road mark. Buffalo has alternated wins and losses over its last five playoff games, recently losing to Montreal three times while recently winning over Montreal twice. The Sabres were competitive earlier in the series with victories by scores of 4-2 and 3-2, but they now enter after allowing six goals in two of the last three contests.
Buffalo averaged 3.45 goals per game during the season while allowing 2.93 goals against per contest. The Sabres generated 28.1 shots per game and allowed 29.1 shots against. Their special teams numbers included 48 power-play goals with a 19.5 percent conversion rate and a penalty kill operating at 81.9 percent. Buffalo also added 11 shorthanded goals during the season.
One strength for Buffalo entering Game 6 is offensive production. The Sabres averaged more goals per game and more shots per game than Montreal during the regular season. The concern is defensive consistency, as Buffalo has allowed six goals twice already in this series and now faces a Montreal offense that has found rhythm at the right time.
Canadiens Looking to Finish the Job at Home
Montreal enters Game 6 with a 48-24-10 overall record and a 24-15-2 home record. The Canadiens have won three of the last five games in the series, recently defeating Buffalo by scores of 6-3, 6-2, and 5-1 while recently losing twice by one and two goals. Montreal has generated strong offensive performances during its wins, scoring at least five goals in all three victories.
The Canadiens averaged 3.40 goals per game during the regular season while allowing 3.06 goals against per contest. Montreal generated 26.3 shots per game while allowing 27.8 shots against. The Canadiens were highly effective on the power play with 56 goals and a 23.1 percent conversion rate. Defensively, Montreal posted a 78.2 percent penalty kill while also recording eight shorthanded goals.
The biggest advantage for Montreal has been offensive balance throughout the series. Multiple players have consistently contributed offensively, and the Canadiens have capitalized on power-play opportunities while generating timely scoring at even strength. Combined with home ice and recent momentum, Montreal enters this game in a strong position.
Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Prediction
Side Pick
Pick: Montreal Canadiens Moneyline
Montreal enters this matchup with all of the momentum after winning three of the last five games in the series and scoring six goals in two of those victories. The Canadiens have also been more effective on special teams with a stronger power-play percentage, and they now return home where they posted a 24-15-2 record during the season. Buffalo still has offensive talent capable of extending the series, but Montreal has consistently generated the stronger overall performances recently.
Total Pick
Pick: Over 6.5
The over stands out because this series has consistently featured high-scoring games. Montreal has scored six goals twice and five goals once during the series, while Buffalo has also shown the ability to generate offense despite recent losses. Both teams averaged more than 3.40 goals per game during the regular season, and recent games have produced scores of 6-3, 6-2, and 5-1. With Buffalo facing elimination and Montreal pushing to close the series, this matchup sets up well for another game with strong offensive pressure.
Final Score Prediction: Montreal Canadiens 5 – Buffalo Sabres 3
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