Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Prediction for Tuesday May 12 2026
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The Buffalo Sabres travel to face the Montreal Canadiens in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Second Round at Bell Centre on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM with coverage airing on ESPN. Montreal enters the matchup holding a 2-1 series lead after a dominant performance in the previous meeting. The Canadiens opened as -135 favorites while Buffalo entered at +114 on the moneyline. The total for the matchup is set at 6.5 goals. Get into the NHL action with our free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Montreal recently won over Buffalo by a 6-2 final score in Game 3 of the series. The matchup was tied after the opening period before the Canadiens took control in the second period with three goals and then added two more in the third period to secure the comfortable victory. Montreal generated steady offensive pressure throughout the night while Buffalo struggled to keep pace after the game shifted in the middle frame.
Buffalo received its offense from Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, who each scored a goal while Thompson also added an assist. Alex Tuch finished with four shots while Josh Doan contributed an assist during the loss. Buffalo goaltender Alex Lyon faced 36 shots and stopped 31 of them in the defeat. The Sabres generated 28 shots overall but had difficulty slowing down Montreal’s offensive attack once momentum shifted.
Montreal saw balanced production throughout the lineup during the win. Alex Newhook scored twice while Cole Caufield, Zack Bolduc, Kirby Dach, and Juraj Slafkovsky each added goals. Jake Evans recorded two assists while Lane Hutson added two assists from the blue line. Nick Suzuki also contributed an assist during the victory as Montreal finished with six total goals on 36 shots. Jakub Dobes was strong in net, stopping 26 of Buffalo’s 28 shots.
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Buffalo Sabres Looking to Respond on the Road
Buffalo enters this matchup with a 50-23-9 overall record and a solid 24-13-4 mark away from home this season. The Sabres recently lost to Montreal in consecutive games by scores of 5-1 and 6-2 after previously winning over the Canadiens 4-2 earlier in the series. Before this playoff matchup, Buffalo recently won over Boston 4-1 before recently losing to Boston 2-1 in overtime. Despite the recent setbacks, the Sabres have shown they can compete away from home throughout the season.
The Sabres averaged 3.45 goals per game this season while allowing 2.93 goals against per contest. Buffalo averaged 28.1 shots per game while allowing 29.1 shots against. Their power play scored 48 goals with a 19.5 percent conversion rate, while the penalty kill operated at 81.9 percent. Buffalo also recorded 11 shorthanded goals during the season.
One clear strength for Buffalo has been offensive production led by Tage Thompson, who finished with 81 points and 40 goals during the season. The Sabres have consistently produced scoring opportunities while maintaining nearly three and a half goals per game. However, the recent defensive struggles against Montreal stand out after allowing 11 total goals across the last two games of the series.
Montreal Canadiens Carrying Momentum into Game 4
Montreal enters Game 4 with a 48-24-10 overall record while posting a 24-15-2 home record this season. The Canadiens recently won over Buffalo in back-to-back games by scores of 5-1 and 6-2 after recently losing to the Sabres 4-2 earlier in the series. Prior to the current matchup, Montreal recently won over Tampa Bay 2-1 before recently losing to Tampa Bay 1-0 in overtime. The Canadiens have played strong hockey at home and now carry momentum into another important game in the series.
The Canadiens averaged 3.40 goals per game while allowing 3.06 goals against per contest this season. Montreal averaged 26.3 shots per game while giving up 27.8 shots against. Their power play produced 56 goals with a 23.1 percent success rate, while the penalty kill finished at 78.2 percent. Montreal also added eight shorthanded goals during the year.
Montreal’s biggest strength entering this matchup is offensive balance. Nick Suzuki finished the season with 101 points and 72 assists while Cole Caufield added 51 goals. The Canadiens also received major offensive contributions throughout the lineup in the previous game, with several players recording goals and assists. That balanced attack has helped Montreal take control of the series over the last two contests.
Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline
Montreal enters this matchup with momentum after recently winning over Buffalo in consecutive games by scores of 5-1 and 6-2. The Canadiens have been productive offensively throughout the series while also receiving strong play from Jakub Dobes in goal during the previous game. Montreal also holds a strong 24-15-2 home record this season and has shown balanced scoring across multiple lines. Buffalo has performed well offensively during the season overall, but the recent defensive issues against Montreal are difficult to overlook entering Game 4.
Total Pick
- Over 6.5 Goals
The recent meetings between these teams have produced 7 total goals and 8 total goals over the last two contests. Buffalo averaged 3.45 goals per game during the season while Montreal averaged 3.40 goals per game. Both teams feature high-end offensive production and scoring leaders capable of generating offense quickly. With the recent pace of the series and the offensive performances shown in the last two games, the over looks like the stronger option here.
Final Score Prediction: Montreal Canadiens 5 – Buffalo Sabres 3
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