Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
Buffalo and Montreal are getting together again Saturday night, and didn’t these two just play? Sure did. Montreal beat Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout Tuesday, and now the Sabres get another crack at them. I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody’s still a little irritated about that one. Buffalo came back from two goals down in the third period, only to lose in the shootout. Now they’re back at Bell Centre in Montreal on October 17, 2026, with the puck dropping at 7:00 PM ET. The betting market has been pretty close on this matchup, and I’m not surprised. Neither team has been particularly trustworthy in goal. I lean toward Montreal at home, but the total interests me more. These clubs have been giving up goals like they’re handing out free samples. Check out our free NHL picks for more NHL predictions throughout the season.
Buffalo Sabres Can’t Keep Chasing Games
Buffalo was sitting at 3-3-1 through seven games, and that Tuesday loss to Montreal pretty much tells you what kind of start they’ve had. The Sabres were down 3-1 early in the third period before fighting back to tie it. Good comeback. But why were they down two goals in the first place? They’d beaten Florida 5-3 the day before, so there was reason to think they might be putting things together. Instead, they spent another night trying to dig themselves out of trouble. Buffalo has enough offense to make games interesting, but I’d sure like to see them play a full 60 minutes without making their goalie deal with one mess after another.
The Sabres have been scoring just under three goals per game while allowing more than three and a half. That’s a problem. You can talk all you want about offensive talent, but if you’re giving up three or four every night, you’re asking your forwards to win a shootout just to get two points. Buffalo’s goaltending hasn’t helped much either. The team’s primary goalie had an .850 save percentage through five appearances. That’s a rough start, no matter how you want to explain it. The power play has shown some improvement after a lousy opening stretch, but Buffalo still hasn’t been consistent enough defensively. Montreal scored three on them Tuesday, and the Canadiens didn’t exactly need 50 shots to do it.
Buffalo’s leading goal scorer had four through the first seven games, and another one of their top offensive contributors had six assists. There’s talent here. Plenty of it. The problem is the blue line and the injuries. Rasmus Dahlin has been dealing with an upper-body injury, Matt Grzelcyk is on injured reserve, and Conor Timmins is also sidelined. Alex Lyon is out with an upper-body injury, which doesn’t help an already shaky goaltending situation. Jason Zucker has been unavailable as well. The Sabres are asking some of their healthy defensemen to play heavy minutes, and that’s a tough way to get through October. Buffalo can score enough to win Saturday. I just don’t know if they can keep Montreal from scoring right back.
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Montreal Canadiens Aren’t Exactly Playing Perfect Hockey Either
Montreal was 3-3-1 through seven games, and I wouldn’t call that a wonderful start. But the Canadiens did beat Buffalo Tuesday, and that counts for something. They had a 3-1 lead in the third period and nearly threw it away before winning in the shootout. Then they went to Washington Wednesday and lost 5-4. That’s nine goals scored in two games and eight allowed. Entertaining hockey? Absolutely. The kind of hockey a coach wants to watch? Probably not. Montreal has been giving its fans plenty to cheer about offensively, but I imagine those same fans are getting a little tired of watching opponents come flying back into games.
The Canadiens are scoring just under three goals per game, and they’re allowing nearly four. Four! You aren’t going to win many games over an 82-game season playing defense like that. Their power play has also been disappointing, converting only around 13.6% of its chances. Buffalo’s penalty kill hasn’t been anything special, so maybe Montreal gets something going there Saturday. The bigger issue is in goal. One of Montreal’s options has been struggling badly, with an .841 save percentage and a goals-against average above four. Their other goalie has been better, stopping just over 90% of the shots he’s faced. If I’m Montreal, I’m thinking pretty seriously about which guy gives me the best chance to get through this one without another wild third period.
Montreal’s leading scorer had nine points through seven games, and its top offensive defenseman was right behind him with eight. That’s good production, and it’s helped cover up some of the problems elsewhere. But the Canadiens have injuries of their own. Ivan Demidov is out with a lower-body injury, Mike Matheson has been dealing with a lower-body problem, and Sam Montembeault is on injured reserve. Oliver Kapanen and Florian Xhekaj have also been listed with injuries. That’s not a short list. Montreal can still put the puck in the net, and they’ve already shown they can beat Buffalo. I’m just not convinced they’re going to make it easy on themselves.
Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Predictions
Montreal Canadiens Moneyline
I’m going with Montreal, although I wouldn’t bet the rent money on it. Buffalo can score, and the Sabres have already shown they can come back against this team. Remember Tuesday? Down 3-1 in the third and they still forced a shootout. That’s the part that bothers me. Montreal had that game under control and couldn’t finish it in regulation. But the Canadiens are at home again, they’ve got some offensive players producing, and Buffalo’s injury situation on defense is a real problem. The Sabres have been giving up more than three and a half goals per game, and their goaltending hasn’t been reliable enough to make me comfortable backing them. Montreal’s goaltending isn’t much better, I know. That’s why I wouldn’t lay a big price here. But if we’re talking about a reasonably priced home favorite, give me the Canadiens to find a way to win another one.
Over 6.5 Goals
I watched what happened Tuesday, and I’m not going to talk myself into an under just because these teams might decide to play a little tighter this time. They combined for six goals in regulation, and both goaltenders had their problems. Montreal followed that up by giving up five to Washington. Buffalo has been allowing more than three and a half goals per game, and the Canadiens have been even worse defensively. That’s a lot of bad defense in one hockey game. Sure, there’s a chance the goalies show up and we get one of those 2-1 games nobody saw coming. Happens all the time. But I’m not betting on either team suddenly becoming a defensive powerhouse overnight. I think both clubs get at least three, and somebody finds the fourth. Give me the over 6.5.
Final Picks: Montreal Canadiens Moneyline and Over 6.5 Goals
This article was completed on October 16, 2026. Betting odds, starting goaltenders, injury reports, and other game information may change before puck drop.
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