Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 15 2026
Buffalo heads up to Toronto on Thursday, October 15, 2026, to face the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drops at 7:00 PM ET, with ESPN+ carrying the game in the United States. The Sabres just lost 4-3 in a shootout to Montreal, while Toronto dropped a 5-4 game against Utah. Both teams are sitting at 3-3-1. The Leafs were available around +102 on the moneyline, and the total is 6.5 goals. I’m taking Toronto. Buffalo has been giving up too many goals, and that penalty kill is a disaster. The Leafs aren’t exactly playing great defense either, but they’ve got the better offense right now. I think we’re going to see some goals Thursday night. Probably quite a few. Make sure you check out all of our free NHL picks.
Buffalo Sabres Have Some Problems To Fix
Buffalo is 3-3-1 and still looking for its first road win. The Sabres are 0-1-1 away from home, and Tuesday’s game against Montreal was frustrating. They fell behind 3-1, fought back with two goals in the third, then lost in the shootout. At least they didn’t quit. The night before, Buffalo beat Florida 5-3. So that’s eight goals in two games. Not bad. But remember, this is also the team that got shut out 4-0 by Dallas and scored once against Utah. You never know what you’re getting with Buffalo. Some nights the offense looks pretty good. Other nights you’re wondering if anybody remembers where the net is.
The Sabres are scoring 2.71 goals a game and allowing 3.57. They’ve given up 25 goals in seven games. That’s too many. And don’t get me started on the penalty kill. Buffalo is stopping only 60.9% of opposing power plays. Seriously? Toronto is converting around 26% of its chances. You can probably see where I’m going with this. Buffalo can’t afford to spend half the night in the penalty box. The Sabres are also getting fewer than 26 shots on goal per game. That’s not much offense to work with when your goalies are giving up three or four every night. They need to stay out of the box and keep Toronto from getting comfortable. Easier said than done.
The offense has at least shown some life lately. Buffalo scored twice in the third period against Montreal, and that 5-3 win over Florida was a good one. But the goaltending numbers are ugly. The Sabres have a team save percentage around .850. You’re not winning many games with that. The injuries aren’t helping, either. Rasmus Dahlin is dealing with an upper-body injury, and that’s a big loss on defense. Jason Zucker is out with an abdominal problem, while Alex Lyon and Conor Timmins are also sidelined. Buffalo needs somebody to settle things down in its own end. Right now, opponents are getting too many good chances. And with Toronto’s power play waiting? That’s a problem.
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Toronto Maple Leafs Can Put The Puck In The Net
Toronto is 3-3-1 and has gone 2-2 at home. The Leafs lost 5-4 to Utah on Tuesday, and that was one of those games where you want to throw something at the television. They fell behind 5-2, scored twice in the third and nearly tied it. Almost. But almost doesn’t get you anything in the standings. Toronto beat Colorado 6-3 before that, so the offense has been doing its job lately. The Leafs have scored ten goals in their last two games. That’s plenty. The trouble is they allowed eight. I wouldn’t be surprised if the coaching staff spent most of Wednesday talking about defense. Nobody wants to keep chasing three-goal deficits.
The Leafs are averaging 3.43 goals per game. Buffalo is at 2.71. That’s a pretty big difference this early in the season. Toronto’s power play has also been much better, converting around 26% of its opportunities. Buffalo is at 11.1%. And the penalty kill? Toronto is stopping about 95% of opposing power plays. Buffalo is barely above 60%. That’s an enormous gap. The Leafs still need to be better at even strength. They’ve been allowing plenty of shots, and Utah just put five past them. But I’d rather have Toronto’s special teams than Buffalo’s. Wouldn’t you? If this game turns into a parade to the penalty box, I know which team I’m betting on.
Toronto has been getting production from its top scoring lines. Six goals against Colorado, four against Utah. The offense isn’t the issue. It’s keeping the puck out of the other net. The Leafs have used both main goalies early in the season, and the results have been mixed. One has been making saves when Toronto needs them, and the other just gave up five against Utah. I’d want to know who’s starting before betting too much on this game. Toronto also has injuries to deal with. Chris Tanev remains out with an upper-body problem, Max Domi has a back injury, and Dakota Joshua is sidelined with an abdominal issue. Those absences matter, especially when the defense is already giving up chances. But Buffalo’s goaltending has been worse, and that makes me feel a little better about Toronto.
Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs +102
I’m taking Toronto at +102. Look, neither team is playing great hockey. Buffalo can score when it gets going, and the Sabres just put up eight goals in two games. But that penalty kill? Sixty-one percent. Come on. Toronto has been converting about one out of every four power plays. That’s the matchup I keep coming back to. The Leafs are also scoring 3.43 goals per game, while Buffalo is giving up 3.57. I know Toronto just allowed five against Utah. I’m not pretending the Leafs are some defensive powerhouse. But Buffalo’s goalies haven’t been stopping enough pucks, and the Sabres could be missing Dahlin again. That doesn’t make me eager to back them on the road. Give me Toronto at a little plus money.
Total Pick: Over 6.5 Goals
Give me Over 6.5 goals. Have you watched either team play defense lately? Buffalo has allowed 25 goals in seven games. Toronto just gave up five to Utah. The Leafs have scored ten goals in their last two, and Buffalo has eight over the same stretch. Sure, one goalie could get hot and ruin the whole thing. Buffalo has also had games where its offense completely disappeared. That’s my worry. But both defenses are giving up chances, and Toronto’s power play gets a Buffalo penalty kill that’s been terrible. I can see the Leafs scoring four. Buffalo should be able to get two or three against a Toronto team that hasn’t exactly been locking things down. A 4-3 game sounds about right. Maybe 5-3 if somebody gets an empty-netter. I’ll take the over.
Final Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline +102 and Over 6.5 Goals.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting goalies can change before puck drop. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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