Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Prediction for Thursday November 5 2026
Chicago heads to Tampa on Thursday night for a 7 PM ET game against the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena. The Blackhawks have another game Wednesday in Florida, so this will be their second game in two nights. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, just beat Detroit 4-2 on Tuesday and has been nearly impossible to beat at home. That’s a pretty rough setup for Chicago. The Lightning are heavy favorites, and I’m having trouble finding much of an argument against them. Make sure you are ready for all the NHL action with our free NHL picks.
Chicago Blackhawks Have a Tough Road Trip
Chicago entered Wednesday at 4-10-1, and the Blackhawks haven’t been giving themselves much room for mistakes. They lost 5-2 to Colorado on Monday, and now they’ve got to play Florida before heading across the state to Tampa Bay. That’s three games in four nights against some pretty difficult competition. Not exactly a relaxing trip.
The defense has been a problem, and the schedule isn’t helping. Chicago can’t afford to spend long stretches trapped in its own zone, especially against Tampa Bay. The Lightning have been scoring well, and they’re going to make the Blackhawks work for every clear. That’s difficult enough with fresh legs. Doing it on the second night of a back-to-back is another matter.
Chicago needs to keep this game simple. Get pucks deep, avoid turnovers in the neutral zone, and don’t give Tampa Bay extra opportunities on the power play. The Blackhawks can make this interesting if they get strong goaltending and catch the Lightning having an off night. But that’s a pretty long list of things that need to go right.
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Tampa Bay Lightning Have Been Excellent at Home
Tampa Bay entered the week at 8-3-2 and added another victory Tuesday, beating Detroit 4-2. The Lightning have now won their first seven home games of the season, a franchise record. That’s the number I keep coming back to. Tampa Bay has been getting the job done in its own building, and now it gets a struggling Chicago team playing on short rest.
The Lightning had scored 48 goals through their first 13 games, an average of 3.69 per contest. That’s plenty of offense, and the 4-2 win over Detroit showed they can keep producing. Tampa Bay has also allowed its share of goals, so I’m not pretending the defense has been perfect. But Chicago hasn’t shown enough consistency to make me think it can take full advantage.
Here’s the thing about this matchup. Tampa Bay doesn’t need to force anything. Let Chicago make the mistakes that tired teams tend to make, get the puck moving, and make the Blackhawks defend. The Lightning should have the fresher legs and the better offensive opportunities. That’s a pretty good combination at home.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning
I’m taking Tampa Bay. The price is probably going to be expensive, and that’s worth considering before betting it. But the Lightning have won seven straight at home to open the season, while Chicago is struggling and has to play the night before. That’s a bad combination for the Blackhawks. Tampa Bay has more offensive ability, gets an extra day of rest, and should have plenty of opportunities to take control. Chicago could hang around if its goaltending is outstanding, but I think the Lightning win this one.
Total Pick: Over 6.5 Goals
I’m leaning over 6.5 if the sportsbooks offer that number. Tampa Bay has been averaging nearly four goals per game, and Chicago’s defense has been having trouble keeping opponents quiet. The Lightning could get four or five themselves, which would leave us needing only a couple from the Blackhawks. Tampa Bay has allowed enough goals this season that I wouldn’t rule that out. The danger is Chicago being so worn down that it barely contributes offensively. Still, I think the Lightning create enough scoring opportunities to make the over attractive.
Final Picks: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline | Over 6.5 Goals (if available)
Disclaimer: This preview was completed on November 4, 2026. Chicago’s November 4 game had not been completed when this article was written. Betting odds, injuries, and starting goaltenders may change before puck drop.
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Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Prediction for Thursday November 5 2026
Chicago heads to Tampa on Thursday night for a 7 PM ET game against the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena. The Blackhawks have another game...
