Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild Picks and Prediction for Monday May 11 2026
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The second round Western Conference playoff series between the Colorado Avalanche and the Minnesota Wild continues with Game 4 taking place at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, Minnesota on Monday, May 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Coverage for this matchup will air on ESPN as Colorado attempts to regain momentum after dropping Game 3 on the road. The Avalanche currently lead the series 2-1 entering this important contest against a Minnesota team that found offensive rhythm in the most recent meeting. Colorado enters the game listed at -130 on the moneyline while Minnesota is priced at +110. The total for the matchup is set at 6.5 goals. Get ready to skate to potential victory with our free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota responded in a major way during Game 3 with a convincing 5-1 victory over Colorado on home ice. The Wild established control early with two first-period goals before extending the lead with another strong second period. Colorado managed only one goal throughout the contest and struggled to keep pace after Minnesota generated consistent pressure offensively. The win allowed the Wild to cut the series deficit to 2-1 and gave them momentum heading into another home game.
Colorado received its lone goal from Nathan MacKinnon, who also finished with four shots during the loss. Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog each recorded assists while several Avalanche skaters generated scoring opportunities but were unable to solve Jesper Wallstedt consistently. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 12 of 13 shots before Scott Wedgewood entered in relief and finished with nine saves. Colorado finished with 36 shots on goal but could not capitalize often enough offensively despite several productive shifts from its top lines.
Minnesota received major performances from several key contributors in the victory. Kirill Kaprizov led the way with one goal and two assists while Brock Faber added a goal and two assists from the blue line. Matt Boldy and Ryan Hartman both scored, and Mats Zuccarello contributed two assists in the balanced offensive effort. Jesper Wallstedt was outstanding in net, stopping 35 of 36 shots and posting a .972 save percentage in the win as the Wild controlled the pace for much of the night.
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Colorado Looks to Respond on the Road
Colorado enters this matchup with a 55-16-11 overall record while posting an excellent 29-7-5 record away from home this season. The Avalanche recently lost to Minnesota 5-1 in Game 3 after previously winning over the Wild 5-2 and 9-6 in the first two games of the series. Before the current series, Colorado recently won over Los Angeles 5-1 and 4-2 to close out the opening round. Despite the Game 3 setback, Colorado has still won four of its last five games overall entering Monday night’s matchup.
The Avalanche have been one of the strongest offensive teams remaining in the playoffs based on the season numbers provided. Colorado averaged 3.63 goals per game while allowing only 2.40 goals against per game. The Avalanche also generated 33.7 shots per game while limiting opponents to only 26.1 shots against per contest. Colorado’s penalty kill operated at 84.6 percent during the season while the club also recorded 45 power-play goals.
One major strength for Colorado entering this matchup is its ability to control play offensively through shot generation and defensive structure. The Avalanche own sizable advantages in both shots per game and goals allowed compared to Minnesota. Colorado’s goaltending numbers have also been strong this season, especially from Scott Wedgewood, who carried a 2.02 goals-against average and .921 save percentage into this series.
Minnesota Carrying Momentum Into Game 4
Minnesota enters Game 4 with a 46-24-12 overall record and a solid 23-10-8 mark at home this season. The Wild recently won over Colorado 5-1 after previously losing to the Avalanche 5-2 and 9-6 earlier in the series. Before facing Colorado, Minnesota recently won over Dallas 5-2 and 4-2 in consecutive games to close out the previous playoff round. The Wild have now won three of their last five games overall entering this contest.
The Wild averaged 3.27 goals per game during the season while allowing 2.87 goals against per game. Minnesota averaged 29.2 shots per game and allowed 29.4 shots against. One area where the Wild showed clear production was on the power play, scoring 65 power-play goals while operating at a 25.2 percent success rate. Minnesota also recorded seven short-handed goals during the season.
A key strength for Minnesota entering Game 4 is the offensive production from its special teams and top scorers. Kirill Kaprizov led the team with 89 points and 45 goals during the season while the Wild power play consistently generated offense throughout the year. Minnesota also received a major performance from Jesper Wallstedt in the previous game, and another strong effort in goal could help the Wild even the series on home ice.
Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
- Colorado Avalanche -130
Colorado still appears to hold several statistical advantages entering this matchup despite the difficult Game 3 loss. The Avalanche averaged more goals per game, allowed fewer goals against, generated more shots offensively, and limited opponents to fewer shots during the season. Colorado has also been excellent on the road with 29 wins away from home. While Minnesota carries momentum after recently winning over Colorado 5-1, the Avalanche responded well throughout the postseason after losses and still hold a 2-1 series advantage entering Monday night.
Total Pick (Over/Under)
- Over 6.5 Goals
The first three games of this series have produced offensive opportunities on both sides, including Colorado’s 9-6 victory earlier in the matchup. Colorado averaged 3.63 goals per game during the season while Minnesota averaged 3.27 goals per contest. The Wild also posted 65 power-play goals during the year while Colorado generated 33.7 shots per game offensively. With both teams showing the ability to score throughout the series, this matchup has the potential to move beyond the listed total again.
Final Score Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 4 – Minnesota Wild 3
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