Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks Pick & Prediction for Thursday January 1, 2026
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The Dallas Stars hit the road to take on the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center in Chicago, Illinois at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN+. Dallas comes in with an elite 25-8-7 record and an even scarier 13-2-5 away mark, while Chicago sits at 14-18-7 overall and 7-8-4 at home. For more matchups and daily angles, check out these free NHL picks.
Dallas Stars: A Heavyweight Offence That Travels
Dallas has one of the cleanest statistical profiles in the league right now: they’re scoring 3.49 goals per game while allowing just 2.62, and the special teams are a real separator with a 30.6% power play. Even though the Stars aren’t a high-shot-volume team (25.2 SF/G), they’re extremely efficient—when they get into their spots, they finish. The one small flag is their recent form: the last five shows some turbulence—L 4-1 vs Buffalo, L 4-3 SO vs Chicago, L 4-3 OT at Detroit, then W 5-1 vs Toronto, W 8-3 at Anaheim. So they’ve dropped three of five, but two of those were overtime/shootout games, and the offence is still showing it can erupt in a hurry.
In goal, Dallas is set up beautifully for a road favourite. Jake Oettinger has been solid with a 2.51 GAA and .910 SV% (16 wins), and Casey DeSmith has been even sharper statistically (2.33 GAA, .912 SV%) with a strong record (9-2-4). That depth matters because even if it’s not Oettinger, Dallas isn’t forced into a “hope and pray” situation—either goalie can hold the fort while the Stars’ top six creates separation.
On the injury report, Dallas lists Lian Bichsel (IR-LT, Feb 25) and Tyler Seguin (IR-LT, May 16). Seguin being out is significant on paper, but Dallas has still produced elite scoring without him, largely because they can spread creation across multiple lines.
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Chicago Blackhawks: Scrappy, Leaky, and Living on Moments
Chicago’s season has been uneven, and the team stats explain why: they score 2.74 goals per game but allow 3.18, and they’re getting heavily out-shot (25.1 SF/G vs 30.1 SA/G). That’s a tough recipe against a team like Dallas that already finishes at a high rate—if Chicago gives up volume and quality looks, the dam can break quickly. The last five also shows the volatility: L 3-2 SO vs Islanders, L 7-3 vs Penguins, W 4-3 SO at Dallas, L 3-1 vs Flyers, L 6-4 at Senators. They have shown they can hang around and steal one in a skills competition (they literally just did it to Dallas), but their baseline level has been shaky defensively.
The goaltending is where Chicago can keep this competitive. Spencer Knight has been respectable with a 2.62 GAA and .910 SV%, and that .910 matters here—because Chicago’s defensive environment is not friendly. Arvid Söderblom has struggled (4.02 GAA, .873), and if he gets the nod, it changes the handicap dramatically: Dallas’ efficiency plus Chicago’s defensive leaks becomes a dangerous combo for the home side.
Injuries are the big story for Chicago, especially at the top. They list Jason Dickinson (day-to-day, Jan 1), Frank Nazar (IR, Jan 17), Connor Bedard (IR, Jan 1), and Shea Weber (IR-LT, Jul 1). Bedard being listed on IR is massive because he’s their scoring leader (44 points) and the engine behind so many of their high-end chances—if he’s out or limited, Chicago’s path to trading offence with Dallas gets much narrower.
Points To Consider
The first thing I’m weighing is Dallas’ travel-proof profile. A team that’s 13-2-5 away isn’t just winning because of home ice—they’re structured, they manage games well, and they don’t panic if the building gets loud. Chicago, meanwhile, hasn’t been a dominant home team, and their shot-allowed numbers suggest they spend too much time defending.
Second, the “how does this game get weird?” angle matters. Chicago already beat Dallas 4-3 in a shootout on December 27. That tells me Chicago’s best chance is to keep it close for 60, lean on goaltending, and try to win a one-goal/OT type of game—especially if Knight plays well. If Dallas gets an early lead though, it forces Chicago to open up, and that’s where their defensive profile can collapse quickly.
Third, special teams could decide this. Dallas’ power play at 30.6% is the kind of number that can flip a game even if five-on-five is choppy. Chicago’s penalty kill is 83.6%, which is respectable, but facing a PP that hot is a different level of stress—one or two penalties at the wrong time can be the whole story.
Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction
Moneyline: I’m riding with Dallas -192. Yes, it’s a road price, but Dallas’ away record (13-2-5) plus their two-way profile (3.49 GF/G, 2.62 GA/G) makes them the clear side for me. Chicago’s defensive environment is too fragile to trust consistently, and if Bedard is truly out (IR listing), Chicago’s offence becomes far more dependent on grinding goals rather than creating them.
Puck line: I’m taking Dallas -1.5 (+140) as my “value” play. Here’s why: Dallas doesn’t need 40 shots to score four goals—they finish. Chicago allows a lot of shots and a lot of goals, and if Dallas’ power play gets opportunities, a two-goal margin is very live. The risk is Chicago dragging this into overtime again, so if you want the conservative approach, Chicago +1.5 (-166) is the “keep it close” angle—but my read is that Dallas is more likely to create separation than get pulled into another coin-flip finish.
Total: I’m leaning Over 5.5 (-125). Dallas games can jump in a hurry because their offence is so efficient, and Chicago’s last five includes high-scoring chaos (7-3 loss, 6-4 loss) along with games where they still scored enough to keep the total alive. Even if Chicago doesn’t do much, Dallas can carry a big portion of the scoring themselves—especially against a defense that gives up 30+ shots per night. Betting on sports and on the Stars is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Blackhawks with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Stars vs Blackhawks you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Final Score Prediction: Stars 4, Blackhawks 2
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