Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
Dallas is heading to Chicago Saturday night, and I’m looking at the Stars wondering when somebody’s going to start scoring some goals. They’ve played seven games and managed just 15 goals. Fifteen! Now, they’ve only allowed 12, so the defense has been doing its job. But come on, you can’t expect to win every night scoring one or two. Chicago, meanwhile, has won two straight and just knocked off Winnipeg in overtime. Maybe the Blackhawks are starting to figure a few things out. These two meet Saturday, October 17, 2026, at the United Center in Chicago, with the puck dropping at 7:00 PM ET. Dallas is a pretty heavy favorite, with one market listing the Stars around -310. That’s a lot of money to lay on a team that’s been struggling to score. I’m not saying Chicago is suddenly a contender, but at that price, I’d rather take my chances with the home team. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more NHL predictions throughout the season.
Dallas Stars Have A Scoring Problem
Dallas is 3-3-1 overall and 2-1-1 on the road, and the Stars have been playing some strange hockey. They opened the season with losses to St. Louis and Nashville, then shut out San Jose 5-0 and Buffalo 4-0. You figure maybe they’re getting things together, right? Not quite. They lost 2-1 to Pittsburgh in a shootout, fell 3-2 to Colorado on Tuesday, and then beat the Avalanche 3-2 in a shootout Wednesday. That’s five goals in their last three games, not counting the shootout winners. Dallas isn’t playing terrible hockey. They’re just having a miserable time finishing their chances. The Colorado win was a good one, especially on the road, but it still took a shootout to get the second point.
The Stars are scoring 2.14 goals per game and allowing just 1.71. That’s some pretty good defensive hockey, and it’s why I’m not writing them off completely. Dallas has already recorded two shutouts, and its goaltending has been excellent. The problem is the offense. The Stars are averaging about 24.6 shots per game, and that’s not a whole lot of work for the opposing goalie. They’ve scored more than two goals in regulation only twice in seven games. Think about that before laying a huge moneyline price. Their penalty kill has been doing its job, and they’ve generally kept games under control, but the power play hasn’t been giving them enough extra offense. You can win a lot of games playing tight defensive hockey. It’s just hard to justify paying -300 for it.
Dallas has been getting some production from its top forwards, but nobody’s exactly tearing up the league yet. The team’s leading goal scorer has two, and its top playmaker has four assists. That’s not much offense through seven games. The goaltending has been the big story, with the Stars allowing only 12 goals all season. Matt Duchene remains out with a lower-body injury, and Wyatt Johnston missed Tuesday’s game with an illness. Dallas could certainly use both of them healthy because the offense needs help. The Stars have enough experience to turn this around, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they start scoring in bunches eventually. But until they do, I’m not interested in paying a premium to back them.
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Chicago Blackhawks Might Be Finding Something
Chicago is 2-5-0, and I know that record looks awful. The Blackhawks lost their first five games, including a 5-2 defeat against Carolina. But they’ve won two straight now, beating Pittsburgh 5-3 Tuesday and Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime Thursday. That Winnipeg game was something. Chicago jumped out to a 3-1 lead in the first period, then watched the Jets come all the way back and tie it. You could almost hear the groaning in the building. Here we go again, right? But the Blackhawks didn’t fold. They scored 97 seconds into overtime and got the win. That’s the kind of game a young team needs. They’d been finding ways to lose, and for once they found a way to win.
Chicago has scored eight goals in its last two games, which is more than Dallas has managed in its last three. I know, we’re talking about two games, and I’m not ready to call the Blackhawks an offensive powerhouse. But there’s a difference between a team that can’t get anything going and one that’s finally starting to put some pucks in the net. Chicago put 28 shots on Winnipeg Thursday and got four past them. The Blackhawks have also been getting some better work from their power play. The defense still worries me, though. Winnipeg came back from two goals down, and Chicago has allowed at least three goals in six of its seven games. That’s not good. If Dallas finally wakes up offensively, the Blackhawks could have a long night.
Chicago’s young forwards have been doing most of the damage lately, and they’re finally getting some help from the rest of the lineup. Their leading goal scorer has three, while the top playmaker has five assists. The Blackhawks’ goaltender made 31 saves against Winnipeg Thursday, including a big stop in overtime. That’s the sort of performance they need more often. Connor Bedard returned Tuesday after missing the first six games following shoulder surgery, and his presence gives Chicago another offensive threat. Andrew Mangiapane has been dealing with a lower-body injury, while Ryan Ellis remains out with a back problem. Chicago isn’t healthy across the board, but getting an important offensive piece back has clearly helped. They’re still a young team with plenty of problems. At least they’re starting to look like they believe they can win.
Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks Picks and Predictions
Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline (+252)
I’m taking Chicago, and before you tell me I’m crazy, look at the price. We’re getting +252 on a team that’s won two straight, scored eight goals in those games, and is playing at home. Dallas has scored 15 goals in seven games. That’s barely two a night. The Stars are playing excellent defense, I’ll give them that, and their goaltending could absolutely shut Chicago down. That’s the danger here. But are you really comfortable laying -310 on a team that’s been struggling this much offensively? I’m not. Chicago just beat Pittsburgh and Winnipeg, and those aren’t exactly free wins. The Blackhawks have been playing with a little more confidence, and getting an important offensive player back doesn’t hurt. Maybe Dallas wins this 2-1 and reminds everybody why defense matters. Fine. But at these odds, I don’t need Chicago to win this matchup very often to make it worth considering. Give me the Blackhawks at home.
Under 6.5 Goals
I’m going under 6.5, and Dallas is the biggest reason. The Stars have played seven games, and every single one has stayed under the posted total. Seven straight unders. They’ve allowed only 12 goals all season, and their goalies have already put together two shutouts. Chicago has been scoring lately, sure, but the Blackhawks haven’t exactly been facing a defense like this one. Dallas doesn’t give up much, and the Stars haven’t been generating enough offense themselves to make me worry about them scoring five or six. The one thing that could ruin this is Chicago’s defense. They’ve been giving up goals, and if Dallas finally starts finishing its chances, the under could be in trouble. But I’m not betting on a sudden offensive explosion from a team averaging 2.14 goals per game. Something like 3-2 either way sounds about right. I’ll take the under 6.5.
Final Picks: Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline (+252) and Under 6.5 Goals
This article was completed on October 16, 2026. Betting odds, starting goaltenders, injury reports, and other game information may change before puck drop.
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