Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 14 2026
Colorado has been scoring goals like somebody forgot to tell the Avalanche the regular season just started. Twenty-six goals in five games is impressive, although surrendering six to Toronto on Saturday wasn’t exactly a reminder of championship-caliber defense. Dallas has been operating at the other extreme, relying on goaltending while its offense searches for answers. The Stars travel to Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, for the second game of a home-and-home series with their Central Division rivals. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET, with TNT carrying the game nationally. Both clubs will be playing their second game in as many nights after meeting in Dallas on Tuesday. Early Wednesday odds have the teams nearly even, with Dallas around -108 and Colorado -109, while the total is listed at six goals at some sportsbooks. That looks like a fair assessment of two teams with very different strengths. Check out our free NHL picks for more predictions throughout the season.
Dallas Stars Need Their Offense To Join The Party
Dallas hasn’t exactly been giving its supporters much offensive entertainment. The Stars entered Tuesday at 2-2-1, including a 1-1-0 record at home and a 1-1-1 mark away from Dallas. They’ve managed only ten goals through five games, and their most recent outing was a 2-1 shootout loss in Pittsburgh on Saturday. That’s a frustrating result for a team with enough offensive talent to expect better. Dallas did beat Buffalo 4-0 last Thursday, showing it can put together a convincing performance when the scoring opportunities are converted. But the Stars have also been shut out twice already, and that’s difficult to overlook heading into a matchup with Colorado. The Avalanche have been scoring more than five goals per game. Dallas can’t expect its goaltenders to win every night while the offense contributes one or two goals.
The Stars have allowed only six goals through their first five games, which is remarkable considering they’ve already played some capable offensive teams. That’s a 1.2 goals-against average, and it’s the biggest reason Dallas has remained competitive despite its scoring problems. The penalty kill has been particularly effective, operating at 88.2%, and the Stars have done a good job preventing opponents from taking advantage of mistakes. Unfortunately, the power play has been going in the opposite direction. Dallas has converted just one of 13 opportunities, a 7.7% success rate that won’t get the job done against Colorado. The Stars have been winning 54.6% of their faceoffs, which should help them control possession, but winning draws doesn’t mean much if the puck never reaches the back of the net. Dallas needs to generate more dangerous chances rather than settling for low-percentage opportunities. That becomes even more important at altitude, where chasing Colorado around the ice can turn into a miserable evening.
Dallas has received strong production from its leading offensive contributors, although the overall scoring numbers haven’t reflected their individual efforts. The club’s leading scorer entered Tuesday with six points, while several other forwards have been creating opportunities without consistently finishing them. The biggest difference has been in goal, where Dallas has received exceptional early-season play. Its top goaltender entered the week with a 0.74 goals-against average and a .963 save percentage, including two shutouts. Those numbers are outstanding, but I’d be careful about assuming they’ll continue against Colorado’s offense. Dallas also has some injury concerns. Matt Duchene remains unavailable with a lower-body injury, removing an important offensive option from a lineup already struggling to score. Cameron Hughes and Harrison Scott are also sidelined, while Joel Kiviranta has been dealing with a lower-body injury. The Stars have enough talent to compete with Colorado, but they’re going to need more from the forwards if the goaltending comes back down to earth.
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Colorado Avalanche Have Plenty Of Firepower But Questions In Goal
Colorado’s 3-2-0 start doesn’t quite explain how entertaining its first five games have been. The Avalanche have scored 26 goals, an average of 5.2 per contest, and they’ve already demonstrated the ability to overwhelm opponents when the offense gets rolling. Unfortunately, Saturday’s 6-3 loss to Toronto exposed some familiar concerns. Colorado had opportunities to stay in that game but couldn’t get enough stops when it mattered. The Avalanche entered Tuesday with a 2-1-0 home record and a 1-1-0 mark on the road. Their recent results have included convincing offensive performances, but the defense hasn’t always provided the same consistency. Playing Dallas twice in consecutive nights should provide a useful test. The Stars don’t give away many easy scoring opportunities, and Colorado will have to work harder than usual to create the kind of chances that have fueled its early success.
The Avalanche have been averaging 5.2 goals per game while allowing 3.4, which tells you just about everything you need to know about their opening stretch. The offense has been outstanding. The defense has been considerably less impressive. Colorado’s power play has converted four of 18 opportunities, a 22.2% success rate that gives the Avalanche another way to punish opponents. Their penalty kill has been effective at 85.7%, although that’s going to be tested if the Stars finally get their power play moving. Colorado has also been getting plenty of shots on goal, forcing opponents to spend long stretches defending rather than generating offense of their own. That approach can wear teams down, particularly in Denver. The trouble comes when Colorado gets careless with the puck or allows opponents to counterattack. Toronto took advantage of those mistakes Saturday, and Dallas has enough experience to do the same. I like Colorado’s offensive approach, but I’d feel considerably better about the Avalanche if the goaltending were more dependable.
Colorado’s offensive leaders have been doing exactly what the club needs from them. Its top center scored twice against Toronto on Saturday and already had four goals through the opening five games. The Avalanche have also received important contributions from their secondary scoring lines, which is why opponents have had such difficulty containing the attack. The goaltending situation is a different story. Colorado is expected to divide the two Dallas games between its available goaltenders, with Mackenzie Blackwood scheduled to start Tuesday and Scott Wedgewood a possibility for Wednesday. That would be an interesting decision given the difference in their recent performances. Blackwood has struggled at times, while Wedgewood was a major part of Colorado’s success last season. The Avalanche also have some injury concerns. Logan O’Connor has been dealing with a lower-body problem, and Georgii Merkulov remains unavailable. Those absences affect Colorado’s depth, but the biggest question remains whether the club can get enough saves to support an offense that’s been producing at an extraordinary rate.
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Picks and Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Colorado Avalanche -109
I’m taking Colorado at home, and the altitude is only part of the reason. The Avalanche have been scoring at an exceptional pace, and Dallas hasn’t shown enough offense to convince me it can consistently keep up. The Stars have been outstanding defensively, and their goaltending has been good enough to steal games against just about anybody. That’s the biggest concern with this selection. Dallas doesn’t need four goals to win if its goaltender continues stopping nearly everything. But those early numbers are difficult to sustain, especially against a Colorado offense that’s creating opportunities throughout its lineup. The Avalanche also have the benefit of returning home for the second game of this series, and I expect that to matter late if both teams are dealing with tired legs. Colorado’s defensive problems are real, and another performance like Saturday’s loss to Toronto could easily ruin this pick. Still, at essentially even money, I prefer the team with the more dangerous offense and home ice. Give me Colorado at -109.
Total Pick: Under 6 Goals
Colorado’s offensive numbers make an under selection look a little strange. The Avalanche have been scoring more than five goals per game, and their defensive problems have produced some high-scoring contests. But Dallas isn’t interested in playing that kind of hockey. The Stars have allowed only six goals in five games, and their goaltending has been exceptional. Dallas has also struggled to score, which makes it difficult to imagine the Stars willingly turning this into a track meet. I expect them to slow the game down, limit Colorado’s transition opportunities and force the Avalanche to work for every quality scoring chance. The biggest risk is that Colorado’s offense simply overwhelms the Dallas defense, or that the back-to-back schedule leaves both clubs making more mistakes than usual. That’s certainly possible. But six goals gives us some protection with a push, and I think Dallas has enough defensive discipline to keep the scoring from getting completely out of hand. I’ll take Under 6, expecting a tighter game than Colorado’s early offensive averages might suggest.
Final Picks: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline -109 and Under 6 Goals.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 13, 2026, before the teams’ first meeting in Dallas. Records, injuries, starting goaltenders and betting odds may change before Wednesday’s game. Confirm current sportsbook prices and player availability before placing a wager.
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