Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Picks and Predictions for Saturday April 25 2026
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The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild meet in Game 4 of the Western Conference First Round at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, Minnesota, on Saturday, April 25, 2026, at 5:30 PM. Dallas leads the series 2-1, and coverage is listed on TBS, truTV, and HBO Max. The Stars are +114 on the moneyline, while the Wild are -135. The total is set at 5.5, with the over at -135 and the under at +114. On the puck line, Dallas is +1.5 at -218, while Minnesota is -1.5 at +180. Be ready for all the NHL playoff action with our Free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Dallas recently won over Minnesota 4-3 in double overtime in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. The Stars opened with two goals in the first period, while the Wild scored once in the first and twice in the second to move ahead. Dallas answered with a third-period goal to force overtime, then finished the game in the second overtime period.
For Dallas, Matt Duchene scored once, added two assists, and finished with two shots in 27:39 of ice time. Jason Robertson also scored once with two assists and five shots, while Mikko Rantanen had one goal, one assist, and six shots. Wyatt Johnston added one goal, one assist, and four shots, and Jake Oettinger stopped 29 of 32 shots for a .906 save percentage across 92:10.
For Minnesota, Joel Eriksson Ek scored once and put four shots on goal, while Marcus Johansson and Michael McCarron each scored once. Matt Boldy, Bobby Brink, Nick Foligno, Jonas Brodin, and Quinn Hughes each recorded an assist. Jesper Wallstedt faced 36 shots and made 32 saves, finishing with an .889 save percentage across 92:10.
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Dallas Stars Look to Build on the Road Breakthrough
Dallas enters Game 4 with a 50-20-12 record and a 24-9-8 mark away from home. The Stars have recently won over Minnesota 4-3 in double overtime and recently won over Minnesota 4-2 after recently losing to the Wild 6-1 in the series opener. Before this playoff series, Dallas also recently won over Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout and recently won over Toronto 6-5.
The Stars average 3.33 goals per game while allowing 2.71 goals against per game. Dallas averages 25.3 shots per game and allows 26.2 shots against per game. The Stars have 71 power-play goals with a 28.6 percentage, 49 power-play goals against with an 80.3 penalty-kill percentage, and 4 shorthanded goals.
The clearest strength for Dallas is its power-play production. The Stars have 71 power-play goals and a 28.6 percentage, which stands out as the strongest special-teams number provided between these two teams. In a playoff matchup that has already included tight results, that edge can matter.
Minnesota Wild Try to Answer at Home
Minnesota comes into this matchup with a 46-24-12 record and a 23-10-8 record at home. The Wild have recently lost to Dallas 4-3 in double overtime and recently lost to Dallas 4-2 after recently won over Dallas 6-1 in Game 1. Around those results, Minnesota recently won over Anaheim 3-2 and recently lost to St. Louis 6-3.
The Wild average 3.27 goals per game while allowing 2.87 goals against per game. Minnesota averages 29.2 shots per game and allows 29.4 shots against per game. The Wild have 65 power-play goals with a 25.2 percentage, 43 power-play goals against with a 79.8 penalty-kill percentage, and 7 shorthanded goals.
Minnesota’s key strength is shot volume. The Wild average 29.2 shots per game, which is higher than Dallas’ 25.3 shots per game. However, the concern is that Minnesota also allows 29.4 shots against per game, so the Wild’s ability to turn that offensive activity into a cleaner overall result becomes important in Game 4.
Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline
Dallas is the pick because the Stars hold the 2-1 series lead and have recently won over Minnesota in back-to-back games. The overall numbers are close, but Dallas has the better record, the better away record compared with Minnesota’s home mark, the higher goals-per-game average, and the lower goals-against average. The Stars also have the stronger power-play percentage at 28.6, while Minnesota enters after two straight playoff losses. With Dallas already having won once in Saint Paul, the moneyline is the side I prefer.
Total Pick
Pick: Over 5.5
The lean is over 5.5 because the last three games in this series have finished with 7, 6, and 7 total goals. Dallas averages 3.33 goals per game, while Minnesota averages 3.27, and both teams have shown they can get to multiple goals in this matchup. The most recent game ended 4-3, and the game before that finished 4-2. With the provided numbers showing both teams above three goals per game on average, I would play this total over 5.5.
Final Score Prediction: Dallas Stars 4 – Minnesota Wild 3
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