Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Picks and Predictions for Wednesday April 22 2026
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The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild meet for Game 3 of their Western Conference First Round playoff series on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, Minnesota. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET, and the game will air on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max. With the series tied 1-1, this matchup carries plenty of weight as the scene shifts to Minnesota. The current odds list Dallas at +110 on the moneyline and Minnesota at -130, while the total is set at 5.5 goals. Be ready for all the NHL action with our Free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Dallas answered back in Game 2 with a 4-2 win over Minnesota to even the series at one game apiece. The opening period ended even at 1-1, then Dallas edged ahead in the second with another goal before pulling away in the third. Minnesota stayed within striking distance by scoring once in the first and once more in the third, but the Stars controlled enough of the flow to finish the night with the split they needed before the series changed venues.
Minnesota still had several players make an impact in defeat. Brock Faber stood out in a major way, scoring both Wild goals and putting six shots on net in a strong individual performance from the blue line. Quinn Hughes played a key role in setting the table, finishing with two assists while logging heavy ice time. Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov each added an assist, helping Minnesota create offense, but the Wild could not fully capitalize despite 30 shots on goal.
Dallas received production from multiple spots in its lineup, which made the difference. Wyatt Johnston delivered a big night with two goals on six shots, giving the Stars a clear offensive push. Matt Duchene added a goal and an assist, while Jason Robertson scored once and remained active with five shots. Nils Lundkvist contributed two assists from the back end, and Jake Oettinger turned aside 28 of 30 shots to help Dallas secure the win. 
Stars Looking to Carry Game 2 Momentum on the Road
Dallas comes into Game 3 with a 50-20-12 overall record and a 24-9-8 mark away from home. Over their last five games, the Stars have recently won over Minnesota, Buffalo, Toronto, and the Rangers, with their only setback in that stretch coming when they recently lost to Minnesota in Game 1 of this series. That recent form gives Dallas four wins in its last five games, and the Stars now head into this road spot after evening the series with the 4-2 victory in the previous playoff game.
The Stars have been strong on both ends based on the team numbers provided. Dallas averages 3.33 goals per game while allowing 2.71 goals against per game. The Stars generate 25.3 shots per game and allow 26.2 shots per contest. Their special teams numbers also stand out, with 71 power-play goals and a 28.6 percent success rate on the man advantage, while the penalty kill sits at 80.3 percent after allowing 49 power-play goals against.
One of the clearest strengths for Dallas is that power play. A 28.6 percent power-play rate is one of the better figures shown in this matchup, and it gives the Stars an edge in a series where finishing chances can swing a game quickly. Combined with a goals-against average of 2.71 per game, Dallas has shown an ability to pair offensive efficiency with reliable defensive results.
Wild Return Home Trying to Regain Control
Minnesota enters Game 3 with a 46-24-12 record overall and a 23-10-8 record at home. The Wild have gone 2-3 over their last five games, recently winning over Dallas and Anaheim while recently losing to Dallas, St. Louis, and Nashville. Minnesota opened this series with an emphatic 6-1 win, but it could not follow that result with another victory and now returns home after recently losing 4-2 in Game 2.
The team stats show a Minnesota group that has also been productive through the season. The Wild average 3.27 goals per game and give up 2.87 goals against per game. They take 29.2 shots per game while allowing 29.4, which points to a team involved in a fairly active pace. On special teams, Minnesota has 65 power-play goals with a 25.2 percent conversion rate, and the penalty kill is at 79.8 percent after allowing 43 power-play goals against.
Minnesota’s biggest edge in this matchup is its shot volume. The Wild average 29.2 shots per game, notably higher than Dallas at 25.3, and that ability to create volume can be important in a series this close. At the same time, the Wild also allow 29.4 shots per game, so the challenge in Game 3 will be turning that attacking pressure into cleaner control while avoiding the defensive lapses that hurt them in the previous loss.
Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Picks and Prediction
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bruce Marshall | +6,749.00 |
| 2 |  Bryan Power | +5,537.00 |
| 3 |  Tony Karpinski | +4,340.00 |
| 4 |  Pro Sports Picks | +3,905.00 |
| 5 |  The Gold Sheet | +2,237.00 |
Moneyline Pick
- Dallas Stars +110
Dallas looks like the stronger value side entering Game 3. The Stars own the better overall record, the better road record, and they have recently won over Minnesota in the most recent playoff meeting. Dallas has also won four of its last five games, while Minnesota has dropped three of its last five. The Stars also hold an edge in goals allowed per game and power-play efficiency, which are two meaningful areas in a tight playoff matchup. With Dallas already showing it can answer back in this series, the plus-money price stands out.
Total Pick
- Over 5.5 (-130)
There is a reasonable case for this matchup to get past the posted total. Game 1 finished 6-1, and Game 2 still reached six total goals in a 4-2 result. Both teams average better than 3.2 goals per game on the season, and both clubs bring power-play success rates above 25 percent into this contest. Minnesota also plays at a higher shot volume, while Dallas has shown strong finishing ability recently. Based on the provided numbers, the over has support here.
Final Score Prediction: Dallas Stars 4 – Minnesota Wild 3
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