Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Prediction for Saturday March 28 2026
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The Dallas Stars travel to PPG Paints Arena to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday, March 28, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 5:00 PM on ESPN+. Dallas enters this matchup as a -125 favorite on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is listed at +105. The total for this game is set at 5.5 goals, with the puck line offering Dallas -1.5 (+195) and Pittsburgh +1.5 (-238). Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more expert analysis and daily betting insights.
Dallas Stars Searching for Momentum on the Road
The Dallas Stars come into this game with a strong 43-18-11 record, including an impressive 21-8-7 mark on the road this season. However, Dallas has struggled recently, losing four of their last five games, including recent losses to the New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils, Vegas Golden Knights, and Minnesota Wild, with their only win coming in a shootout victory over the Colorado Avalanche. This recent stretch suggests a team that has hit a bit of a rough patch despite their strong overall record.
Offensively, Dallas is averaging 3.33 goals per game while allowing just 2.69 goals against, which remains one of the better defensive marks in the league. They generate 25.7 shots per game while allowing 26.5, showing a more controlled and structured style of play. Their power play has been highly effective, scoring 63 goals with a 28.8% conversion rate, making it one of their biggest strengths.
A key aspect of Dallas’ success has been their defensive discipline and special teams play. With an 81.2% penalty kill and only 41 power play goals allowed, they have consistently limited opponents’ scoring opportunities. Even during their recent slump, their ability to keep games close and rely on structure makes them a dangerous opponent.
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Pittsburgh Penguins Battling at Home
The Pittsburgh Penguins enter this matchup with a 36-20-16 record and a solid 17-11-8 record at home. Pittsburgh has gone 2-3 in their last five games, with recent wins over the Ottawa Senators and Winnipeg Jets, while suffering losses to the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, and again to Carolina in overtime. This stretch shows inconsistency but also highlights their ability to compete in high-scoring games.
The Penguins are averaging 3.39 goals per game while allowing 3.03 goals against, showing a balanced but slightly offense-leaning profile. They generate 29.2 shots per game and allow 27.4, which reflects their ability to create chances while still maintaining a reasonable defensive structure. Their power play has produced 50 goals at a 24.4% success rate.
One of Pittsburgh’s strengths has been their penalty kill, which sits at 82.6%, along with allowing just 37 power play goals. This strong defensive special teams unit could play a key role against a Dallas team that relies heavily on its power play. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s ability to score short-handed goals adds another layer to their special teams impact.
Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Pick
Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Pick
- Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline (-125)
Dallas still has the edge in this matchup despite their recent struggles. Their defensive metrics, elite power play, and strong road record make them the more reliable team. Pittsburgh’s inconsistency and slightly higher goals against average give Dallas the advantage, especially if they can control the pace and capitalize on special teams opportunities.
Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Total Pick
- Pick: Under 5.5
I like the under in this matchup because Dallas tends to play a more structured, defensive style, and Pittsburgh has shown the ability to slow games down when needed. With both teams having strong penalty kill units and Dallas allowing under three goals per game, I expect a tighter contest with fewer scoring chances.
Final Score Prediction, Dallas Stars win 3-2.
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.
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