Edmonton Oilers vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Predictions for Tuesday December 16 2025
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The Edmonton Oilers head to PPG Paints Arena to face the Pittsburgh Penguins in a matchup that pits elite top-end firepower against a home team trying to stop the bleeding. Pittsburgh brings a five-game losing streak into this one, and the spot is tricky against an Oilers club that can turn one bad penalty or one sloppy line change into a two-goal swing in a hurry. For more daily matchups and best-bet breakdowns, check out today’s free NHL Picks before puck drop.
Game Information
- Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Tuesday, December 16, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh, PA)
- TV: TNT / truTV / HBO Max
Edmonton Oilers Breakdown
Edmonton enters at 15-12-6 and has been an “event” team all season: they score plenty (3.33 GF/G) but can also give it back (3.39 GAA). The main reason they’re always live is obvious—Connor McDavid (52 points: 18G, 34A) is driving the offence at a superstar level, and Edmonton’s power play is built to punish teams that take careless minors.
Even when Edmonton isn’t perfectly clean defensively, they can win games by controlling the most important minutes: special teams and late-game pushes. They’re converting on 30.6% of their power plays, which is the kind of number that changes how opponents defend—because you can’t simply “trade penalties” with Edmonton and expect to survive.
Goaltending is a major factor here. Tristan Jarry has been strong for Edmonton (10 wins, 2.69 GAA, .908 SV%). If he plays to form, Edmonton doesn’t need a perfect defensive night—they just need to avoid the full-on breakdown stretches that turn into two quick goals.
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Pittsburgh Penguins Breakdown
Pittsburgh is 14-8-9 and better than their current mood suggests, but that five-game skid is very real—and it’s come with a painful trend: they’ve been close, but they haven’t been finishing. The Penguins are still producing offence (3.19 GF/G) and their defensive number (2.94 GAA) is respectable, but the margins have been razor thin and they’ve been losing the high-leverage moments.
Sidney Crosby (34 points: 19G, 15A) remains the engine, and Pittsburgh’s power play has been a legitimate weapon at 32.1%. That’s the path to an upset: draw penalties, get the top unit out, and force Edmonton to defend structured puck movement rather than open-ice chaos.
The concern is availability and depth down the middle. Evgeni Malkin is listed on IR (est. Dec 20), and without him the Penguins become far more dependent on Crosby’s line controlling play and the power play doing heavy lifting. If Pittsburgh has to chase this game at 5v5, the matchup becomes uncomfortable because Edmonton’s speed will create odd-man looks.
In net, Stuart Skinner has a 2.83 GAA and .891 SV%. Those are playable numbers, but against Edmonton-style volume plus high-end finishing, Pittsburgh can’t afford soft goals.
Key Matchup Factors
1) Special teams could decide it This is one of the more interesting power-play matchups on the board: Edmonton (30.6%) vs Pittsburgh (32.1%). If the whistle gets active, this game can swing fast and the total becomes very live.
2) Penguins’ finishing vs Oilers’ finishing Pittsburgh has been in tight games lately but hasn’t cashed enough of the key chances. Edmonton has the opposite profile: fewer chances can still turn into multiple goals because of McDavid-driven creation and elite finishing ability.
3) Goaltending stability leans Edmonton Jarry’s numbers have been more reliable than Pittsburgh’s rotation. If both teams trade looks, Edmonton is more likely to win the “first mistake” battle.
Picks and Predictions
Best Picks: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-148)
This is a strong situational spot to back Edmonton. Pittsburgh is talented enough to compete, but the five-game skid matters because it often shows up in decision-making—late penalties, forced clears, and turnovers at the offensive blue line that lead directly to transition chances the other way. That’s exactly what you don’t want against Edmonton.
The Oilers also profile well in a game that could turn into a special-teams duel. If Pittsburgh’s penalty discipline slips even a little, Edmonton’s power play is built to make them pay. On the other side, Edmonton’s penalty kill isn’t elite, so Pittsburgh can absolutely score—but Edmonton’s overall offensive ceiling is higher, and their current goaltending edge gives them a better baseline. The best sportsbooks are the best way to go when you are betting on the Oilers. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Penguins with the Onyx Odds promo code. Getting the most out of your bets on Oilers vs Penguins can be done by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Strong Lean: Over 6.5 (EVEN) if you expect penalties
Both teams can score, both power plays are humming, and Pittsburgh games lately have had that “one bounce and it opens up” feel—especially when they’re pressing to snap a losing streak. The risk is a tighter, more structured start where both coaches try to calm things down, but if the first period features 2–3 penalties, the over becomes the more attractive angle.
Final Score Prediction
Edmonton Oilers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
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