Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars Picks and Predictions for Tuesday April 28 2026
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The Minnesota Wild travel to face the Dallas Stars in Game 5 of the Western Conference First Round at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, with puck drop set for 8:00 PM and coverage available on ESPN2. This series is tied 2-2, making this a pivotal swing game between two Central Division teams. At the time of this writing, the Stars are listed at -130 on the moneyline, while the Wild come in at +110, with the total set at 5.5 goals. Keep up on all the action with our Free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota recently won over Dallas 3-2 in overtime in Game 4, evening the series at 2-2. The game was tight from the start, with Dallas and Minnesota tied 1-1 after the first period. Dallas moved ahead in the second, but Minnesota answered in the third before finishing the game in overtime. It was a narrow, hard-fought result that gave the Wild an important home victory before the series shifted back to Dallas.
For Dallas, Jason Robertson scored once and generated seven shots, giving the Stars a major offensive presence throughout the game. Miro Heiskanen also scored and finished with six shots, while Matt Duchene added two assists and three shots. Mikko Rantanen contributed two assists as well, helping Dallas create enough chances to push the game deep into overtime. In goal, Jake Oettinger faced heavy pressure and stopped 40 of 43 shots, finishing with a .930 save percentage in 79:31 of ice time.
Minnesota had several key contributors in the win, led by Matt Boldy, who scored once and put four shots on goal. Marcus Foligno also scored, while Brock Faber delivered a goal and an assist with five shots and a heavy workload. Kirill Kaprizov added two assists and four shots, and Ryan Hartman had one assist while putting seven shots on net. Jesper Wallstedt was excellent in goal, stopping 43 of 45 shots for a .956 save percentage across 79:31, giving Minnesota the goaltending performance it needed to even the series.
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Minnesota Carries Momentum Into Dallas
The Wild enter this matchup with a 46-24-12 record and a 23-14-4 mark away from home. Their recent stretch has been competitive, as they recently won over Dallas 3-2 in overtime after recently lost to Dallas 4-3 in double overtime and 4-2 in the two games before that. Minnesota also recently won over Dallas 6-1 earlier in the series and recently won over Anaheim 3-2 before the playoff matchup began. The Game 4 win gave the Wild a crucial result and brought the series back even.
Minnesota is averaging 3.27 goals per game while allowing 2.87 goals against. The Wild average 29.2 shots per game and allow 29.4 shots against. On special teams, Minnesota has scored 65 power-play goals with a 25.2 percent success rate, while allowing 43 power-play goals against with a 79.8 percent penalty-kill rate. The Wild have also scored seven shorthanded goals.
A key strength for Minnesota is its combination of scoring volume and power-play production. The Wild have generated more shots per game than Dallas and own a strong power-play percentage, which gives them a clear path to creating pressure. Their challenge is keeping Dallas from turning tight games in its favor, but the most recent result showed Minnesota can handle a close playoff game and finish it.
Dallas Returns Home Looking to Regain Control
The Stars come into Game 5 with a 50-20-12 record and a 26-11-4 mark at home. Dallas recently lost to Minnesota 3-2 in overtime, but before that, the Stars recently won over Minnesota 4-3 in double overtime and recently won over Minnesota 4-2. Earlier in the series, Dallas recently lost to Minnesota 6-1, and before the series began, the Stars recently won over Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout. With the series tied 2-2, Dallas now has a chance to respond on home ice.
Dallas is averaging 3.33 goals per game while allowing 2.71 goals against. The Stars average 25.3 shots per game and allow 26.2 shots against. Their power play has been strong, producing 71 goals with a 28.6 percent rate, while their penalty kill has allowed 49 power-play goals with an 80.3 percent success rate. Dallas has also scored four shorthanded goals.
The biggest strength for Dallas is efficiency. The Stars average slightly more goals per game than Minnesota despite taking fewer shots per game, and they also allow fewer goals and fewer shots against. Their power-play percentage is also higher, which gives them a valuable edge in a matchup where small details have already helped decide multiple games.
Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
- Dallas Stars
Dallas on the moneyline at -130 is the preferred side. Minnesota comes in with momentum after the overtime win, but Dallas still owns the stronger overall record, the better home record, the lower goals-against average, and the better power-play percentage. The Stars also recently won over Minnesota twice in this series before the Game 4 overtime loss. With the series tied and Dallas returning to American Airlines Center, the home side has enough provided edges to be the pick.
Total Pick
- Over 5.5
The total is set at 5.5 goals, and the lean is toward the over. Minnesota averages 3.27 goals per game, while Dallas averages 3.33, and both teams have already played multiple games in this series that reached at least six total goals. The most recent matchup finished with five goals, but it also required overtime and featured plenty of pressure from both sides. With both teams showing strong scoring averages and power-play production, the over is the better lean.
Final Score Prediction: Dallas Stars 4 – Minnesota Wild 3
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