Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Prediction for Thursday May 14 2026
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The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres will meet for Game 5 of their Eastern Conference Second Round playoff series on Thursday, May 14, 2026, at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with coverage airing on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max. This series has been tightly contested through four games and now shifts back to Buffalo with the matchup tied 2-2. Buffalo enters as a slight favorite at -122 on the moneyline, while Montreal comes back at +102. The total for the game is set at 5.5 goals. Be sure to find all the best action with our free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Buffalo recently won over Montreal by a 3-2 final score in Game 4 to even the series at two games apiece. Montreal carried a 2-1 lead after the opening period, but Buffalo gradually controlled the pace over the final two periods and held the Canadiens scoreless the rest of the way. The Sabres found the tying goal in the second period before adding the game-winning score in the third to complete the comeback victory on the road.
Buffalo received strong performances throughout the lineup during the win. Tage Thompson delivered one goal and one assist while firing two shots on goal and finishing with a plus rating. Josh Doan contributed two assists, and Josh Norris added an assist while winning key faceoffs throughout the contest. Mattias Samuelsson scored once from the blue line and logged heavy defensive minutes, while Rasmus Dahlin picked up an assist and contributed four blocked shots. In goal, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 28 of 30 shots and finished the night with a .933 save percentage.
Montreal had opportunities throughout the game but could not extend its early lead. Cole Caufield scored once on five shots, while Alex Newhook also found the back of the net and generated five shots. Ivan Demidov, Jake Evans, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Lane Hutson each recorded assists in the loss. Nick Suzuki logged over 24 minutes of ice time and won 59.1 percent of his faceoffs. Jakub Dobes made 19 saves in net for Montreal during the defeat.
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Canadiens Searching for Another Road Breakthrough
Montreal enters this matchup with a 48-24-10 overall record and a strong 24-9-8 mark away from home this season. The Canadiens have alternated wins and losses throughout this series and recently lost to Buffalo 3-2 in Game 4 after previously winning over the Sabres 6-2 and 5-1 in back-to-back contests. Before the current series, Montreal also recently won over Tampa Bay by a 2-1 score to close out the opening round.
The Canadiens have been productive offensively this season, averaging 3.40 goals per game while generating 26.3 shots per contest. Montreal has also posted 56 power-play goals with a 23.1 percent success rate on the man advantage. Defensively, the Canadiens have allowed 3.06 goals per game while carrying a penalty kill percentage of 78.2 percent. The club has also recorded eight shorthanded goals this season.
One major strength for Montreal has been its ability to produce offense consistently throughout the postseason. The Canadiens have scored at least two goals in every game during their last five contests and have already posted six goals and five goals in victories during this series. Their road record has also remained impressive all season, which could provide confidence entering another difficult environment in Buffalo.
Sabres Return Home with Momentum
Buffalo brings a 50-23-9 overall record into Game 5 along with a strong 26-10-5 home record this season. The Sabres recently won over Montreal 3-2 in Game 4 after previously losing 6-2 and 5-1 in Games 2 and 3. Earlier in the postseason stretch, Buffalo also recently won over Boston by a 4-1 score before opening this series.
The Sabres have been one of the stronger offensive teams in the league this year, averaging 3.45 goals per game while producing 28.1 shots per contest. Buffalo has also allowed only 2.93 goals per game defensively. On special teams, the Sabres have scored 48 power-play goals with a 19.5 percent conversion rate while limiting opponents to 42 power-play goals against with an 81.9 percent penalty kill percentage.
Buffalo’s biggest strength entering this game may be its balance between offense and defense. The Sabres hold advantages in goals against average and penalty kill percentage compared to Montreal, and they have already shown resilience in this series by bouncing back after consecutive losses. Returning home after stealing Game 4 on the road could provide another boost heading into this pivotal matchup.
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick:
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline
Buffalo appears to have regained momentum after the Game 4 comeback victory, and the Sabres now return to KeyBank Center where they have been excellent all season with a 26-10-5 home record. Buffalo also owns the stronger defensive numbers entering this matchup while receiving excellent goaltending from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the previous game. Montreal has played well offensively throughout the series, but Buffalo’s ability to respond after difficult losses has stood out during this playoff run. With home ice back in their favor, the Sabres look like the stronger side in Game 5.
Total Pick:
- Under 5.5 Goals
The lean in this matchup is toward the under. Three of the four games in this series have finished with five total goals or fewer, including Buffalo’s recent 3-2 victory in Game 4. Both teams have capable goaltending options and solid defensive metrics overall, while the pressure of a pivotal Game 5 could also create a tighter style of play. Buffalo has allowed fewer than three goals per game this season, and Montreal has also shown the ability to keep games competitive defensively.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Sabres 3 – Montreal Canadiens 2
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