Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Prediction for Wednesday May 6 2026
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The Montreal Canadiens and the Buffalo Sabres are set to begin their Eastern Conference Second Round series with Game 1 taking place at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, at 7:00 PM. The game will be broadcast on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max as two young and talented teams look to make a deep playoff run. Buffalo enters as the slight favorite at home with a moneyline of -130, while Montreal comes in at +110, and the total is set at 5.5 goals. Get ready for the NHL playoffs with our free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Montreal enters this matchup coming off a tightly contested 2-1 victory over Tampa Bay in Game 7 of their first-round series. It was a defensive battle throughout, with Montreal striking first in the opening period before Tampa Bay responded in the second. The Canadiens regained the lead in the third period and held firm down the stretch to secure the series-clinching win in a game defined by structure and disciplined play.
Montreal’s performance was highlighted by strong contributions throughout the lineup. Nick Suzuki led the way with a goal, finishing with a plus-two rating and playing over 22 minutes while contributing in all situations. Alex Newhook added a goal of his own, while Kaiden Guhle stood out from the blue line with two assists and a strong two-way presence. Josh Anderson and Lane Hutson also chipped in with assists, while Jakub Dobes delivered a stellar performance in net, stopping 28 of 29 shots to anchor the win.
Buffalo’s most recent outing saw them close out their first-round series with a convincing 4-1 victory over Boston in Game 6. The Sabres jumped out early with two goals in the first period and never looked back, adding insurance in the third period to seal the series. Their ability to control the pace and capitalize on key opportunities proved to be the difference.
The Sabres were fueled by a balanced offensive effort in that win. Tage Thompson contributed two assists and was active throughout the game, while Alex Tuch and Josh Norris each found the back of the net and played key roles in the offensive push. Rasmus Dahlin added two assists from the back end, showcasing his playmaking ability. In goal, Alex Lyon was outstanding, turning aside 25 of 26 shots and providing the stability needed to close out the series. 
Montreal’s Road-Tested Momentum
Montreal enters this series with a record of 48-24-10 and an impressive 24-9-8 mark on the road. Over their last five games, the Canadiens recently won over Tampa Bay twice, including the decisive Game 7 victory, while also recently lost to Tampa Bay in overtime and dropped another close contest earlier in the series. Their ability to grind out tight games has been a defining trait heading into this matchup.
From a statistical standpoint, Montreal has averaged 3.40 goals per game while allowing 3.06 goals against. They generate 26.3 shots per game and allow 27.8, showing a relatively balanced approach. Their power play has been effective at 23.1 percent, and they have also managed eight shorthanded goals, indicating their ability to create offense in multiple situations.
One key strength for Montreal is their ability to produce offensively while maintaining a solid special teams presence. Their power play efficiency stands out compared to Buffalo’s, and that could be a difference-maker in a series where opportunities may be limited. However, their goals against average suggests they can be vulnerable defensively at times, which could be tested against a high-paced Buffalo team.
Buffalo’s Strong Home Presence
Buffalo comes into this game with a 50-23-9 record and a strong 26-10-5 record at home. Over their last five games, the Sabres recently won over Boston three times, including a dominant 6-1 performance, while also recently lost to Boston in overtime and dropped another game earlier in the series. Their ability to respond after setbacks has been evident throughout the first round.
Statistically, Buffalo has averaged 3.45 goals per game while allowing just 2.93 goals against. They generate 28.1 shots per game and allow 29.1, showing a willingness to play at a higher pace. Their power play sits at 19.5 percent, while their penalty kill has been strong at 81.9 percent, giving them a well-rounded special teams profile.
A key advantage for Buffalo is their defensive consistency combined with strong goaltending. Their lower goals against average compared to Montreal suggests they can limit scoring opportunities more effectively, especially on home ice. This defensive edge, paired with their offensive depth, gives them a balanced approach that has translated well into playoff success so far.
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Picks and Prediction
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bruce Marshall | +8,742.00 |
| 2 |  Bryan Power | +3,958.00 |
| 3 |  Sean Higgs | +2,820.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,870.00 |
| 5 |  Steve Seagrave | +1,832.00 |
Moneyline Pick:
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline
Buffalo enters this game with the stronger overall record and a clear edge at home, where they have been consistently effective. Their recent series against Boston showed their ability to control games and produce offensively while maintaining defensive structure. Montreal has been resilient, especially on the road, but their higher goals against average compared to Buffalo could become a factor in a matchup where defensive execution is critical. With Buffalo’s combination of home-ice advantage and slightly better defensive numbers, they have the edge in Game 1.
Total Pick
- Under 5.5
Both teams come into this game following tightly contested playoff series where defensive play and goaltending were key factors. Montreal just won a 2-1 Game 7, and Buffalo allowed only one goal in their series-clinching win. While both teams have solid scoring averages, their recent playoff performances suggest a more cautious and structured approach. With both sides capable of limiting chances and strong goaltending on display, this matchup leans toward a lower-scoring outcome.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Sabres 3 – Montreal Canadiens 2
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