Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 14 2026
Montreal has spent the opening week of the season making life miserable for its goaltenders. Giving up six goals once is a bad night. Doing it twice in five games starts looking like a habit nobody wants to develop. The Canadiens will try to straighten things out Wednesday, October 14, when they visit the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. The puck drops at 7:30 PM ET, with ESPN+ carrying the game for American viewers. Both clubs have Tuesday games to get through first, so Wednesday’s matchup won’t feature two particularly rested teams. Washington has been the more reliable club defensively, although its own performance against Seattle on Sunday left plenty to complain about. The moneyline hadn’t been reliably confirmed when this preview was prepared, and the total has been appearing around six goals. I’ll be watching for a reasonable Washington price rather than paying whatever the sportsbook decides to charge. You can find more of our free NHL picks throughout the season.
Montreal Canadiens Have Been Living Dangerously
There’s something almost impressive about surrendering 17 goals in three games and still managing to look competitive for stretches. Montreal lost to Pittsburgh, Carolina and Nashville during that run, and the defense gave its goaltenders very little help. The Canadiens entered Tuesday with a 2-2-1 record, including a 1-1-0 mark away from home. Saturday’s 1-0 shootout victory over Detroit was a welcome change, even if it required the offense to disappear along with the defensive mistakes. Montreal finally showed it could play a game without turning every opposing possession into an adventure. Whether that carries over against Washington is another question. The Canadiens have enough ability to make this an entertaining game. They haven’t shown they can consistently make it a comfortable one.
Montreal has scored 15 goals through five games, which is perfectly respectable for a team trying to find its rhythm. The problem is the 19 goals at the other end. It’s difficult to win consistently when opponents are getting almost four goals a night, no matter how talented the forwards happen to be. The Canadiens have been too willing to trade chances, and that’s a dangerous habit against Washington. There are encouraging signs in goal, particularly after the shutout against Detroit, but one strong performance doesn’t erase what happened during the previous three losses. The club has also been getting very different results from its available goaltenders. That makes Wednesday’s starting decision especially important. Playing consecutive nights is difficult enough without wondering which version of the defense is going to show up.
The Canadiens do have some legitimate scoring talent. Their leading center entered the week with seven points in five games, including three goals, while the club’s young offensive defenseman had already collected four assists. That’s the sort of production Montreal needs if it hopes to overcome its occasional defensive lapses. The trouble is that the lineup isn’t completely healthy. Ivan Demidov remains sidelined with a lower-body injury after producing 62 points last season, taking an important offensive option out of the rotation. Sam Montembeault is also unavailable, leaving the club without an established goaltender during a stretch when dependable play in net would be particularly useful. Oliver Kapanen has been dealing with a lower-body problem, and Florian Xhekaj is day-to-day. Montreal can still score enough to win this game, but the injuries leave less room for another careless defensive performance.
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Washington Capitals Need To Stop Making Things Complicated
Washington had a perfectly good opportunity to build on its early success Sunday. Instead, Seattle came into Capital One Arena and left with a 5-3 victory. That’s the kind of loss that irritates a team capable of playing much better hockey. The Capitals entered Tuesday at 3-2-0 overall and 2-1-0 at home, having already beaten Carolina, Pittsburgh and the Rangers. Those victories weren’t all alike, either. Washington scored five against Carolina and later held New York to a single goal. That’s a useful combination when you’re trying to establish yourself early in the season. The Seattle game was a reminder that Washington isn’t immune to defensive breakdowns, but I wouldn’t put the Capitals in the same category as Montreal. Washington has been more capable of adjusting when a game isn’t going according to plan.
The Capitals have scored 17 goals and allowed 14 through five games. That’s not an overwhelming statistical advantage, but it’s considerably more manageable than what Montreal has been dealing with. Washington has been getting enough offense to win without having to play every game at a frantic pace. The power play hasn’t been particularly sharp, converting at 15.4%, and that’s one area where the Capitals should expect better results. Montreal could provide the opportunity. The Canadiens have been allowing too many dangerous chances, and Washington doesn’t need much encouragement to take advantage of a defense that’s struggling with its positioning. My bigger concern is how the Capitals respond after playing Carolina on Tuesday. A demanding road game followed by a quick return home isn’t ideal. Still, Washington has shown more defensive discipline than Montreal, and I trust that more than a couple of early offensive averages.
Washington’s leading scorers have given the club enough production to stay competitive. One of its top forwards entered the week with five points, while another had already scored three goals. The Capitals have also received some dependable goaltending, although their most recent home loss exposed a few problems. The injury situation deserves attention. Pierre-Luc Dubois has been dealing with an illness, while Matt Roy is managing a lower-body injury. Rasmus Sandin remains sidelined with a knee problem, leaving Washington without an important defensive option. Those absences matter, particularly when the Capitals are playing on consecutive nights. The coaching staff may have to lean more heavily on its available defensemen, and the starting goaltender won’t be confirmed until closer to puck drop. Washington isn’t in perfect shape. I still prefer its ability to manage a difficult game over Montreal’s tendency to let one get away.
Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals Picks and Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Washington Capitals (-120 or Better, Conditional)
I’m backing Washington if the price stays reasonable. Montreal has spent too much of the opening week chasing the puck, and I don’t trust that defense to suddenly become dependable because the Canadiens managed one shutout against Detroit. Washington has been the better club at controlling games, even if Sunday’s loss to Seattle wasn’t much of an advertisement for its defensive ability. The Capitals also have home ice, and that should help when both teams are coming off Tuesday games. Montreal can absolutely make this uncomfortable. The Canadiens have enough offensive talent to punish mistakes, and Washington’s injuries on defense are worth taking seriously. But the Capitals don’t need a perfect performance to win this matchup. They need to avoid giving Montreal easy opportunities and make the Canadiens defend for extended stretches. I like Washington at -120 or better, subject to the starting-goaltender confirmation. I wouldn’t chase the price much higher.
Total Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (Conditional Target)
I have a difficult time looking at Montreal’s first five games and expecting a quiet evening. The Canadiens have already surrendered 19 goals, and three consecutive losses saw opponents score 17 times. Washington isn’t exactly struggling to generate offense, either. The Capitals have scored 17 goals themselves, and they should find opportunities against a defense that’s been far too generous. Montreal can contribute to the scoring, particularly if Washington repeats some of the mistakes it made against Seattle. The concern is obvious enough. Both clubs will be playing their second game in as many nights, and tired teams don’t always produce the offensive fireworks people expect. Montreal’s shutout against Detroit also showed the Canadiens are capable of tightening things up when the goaltending cooperates. I still prefer the over because the defensive problems on both sides have been more convincing than the occasional low-scoring result. Give me Over 5.5 at a playable price. If the only available number is six, I’d reassess the odds rather than automatically make the same bet.
Final Picks: Washington Capitals Moneyline (-120 or Better, Conditional) and Over 5.5 Goals (Conditional).
Disclaimer: This preview uses information available before the teams’ October 13 games. Records, injuries, starting goaltenders and betting odds may change before Wednesday’s puck drop. Verify all current information before placing a wager.
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