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New Jersey Devils vs Winnipeg Jets Picks & Predictions for Sunday, January 11, 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 01/11/2026, 12:00 AM ET

The New Jersey Devils head to Canada Life Centre to take on the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday, January 11, 2026, with puck drop set for 2:00 PM ET on NHL Network. New Jersey enters at 22-20-2 (11-12-0 away), while Winnipeg comes in at 16-22-5 (9-9-3 home). With the Devils trying to halt a skid and the Jets looking to build on a bounce-back win, this one lands squarely on the radar for free NHL picks.

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New Jersey Devils: Shot Volume Isn’t Turning Into Goals

New Jersey’s profile is a bit strange: they’re generating a strong 30.0 shots per game, but the finishing hasn’t been there, with just 2.55 goals per game. When you’re not converting, you leave yourself exposed to variance, and that’s exactly what the last week has looked like—New Jersey is 2-3 in the last five, with three straight losses and a couple of ugly scorelines.

Defensively, the Devils are allowing 3.11 goals against per game on 28.8 shots against, which puts pressure on goaltending to be sharp night-to-night. Special teams are competitive but not dominant: the power play is clicking at 20.7%, while the penalty kill sits at 77.2%—numbers that can absolutely win games, but can also swing against you if you take too many penalties in a one-off spot.

From the injury report, New Jersey lists Zack MacEwen (IR), Stefan Noesen (IR), and Evgenii Dadonov (IR).

Winnipeg Jets: Slightly Better Scoring, Similar Defensive Shape

Winnipeg’s overall record is worse, but their team scoring is actually higher than New Jersey’s at 2.91 goals per game. The issue is that they’re giving it back at almost the same rate, allowing 3.12 goals against per game—so they’re living in that high-variance zone where one bad stretch flips the whole night.

Shot-wise, the Jets are lower-volume than the Devils at 26.5 shots for per game, and they allow 27.9 shots against, so they don’t have the same “puck-tilt” cushion New Jersey does. On special teams, Winnipeg is respectable but not scary: 19.0% on the power play, 77.5% on the penalty kill. Their recent form is 1-4 in the last five, but the most recent result was encouraging—a 5-1 win—which matters because it suggests they can still pop offensively when the game opens up.

From the injury report, Winnipeg lists Neal Pionk (day-to-day), Morgan Barron (day-to-day), and Haydn Fleury (IR).

Points To Consider

This matchup is basically a clash of “process vs finishing.” New Jersey brings the stronger shot volume (30.0 per game), but Winnipeg has been the more productive scoring team on the season (2.91 GF/G vs 2.55). Defensively, they’re nearly identical in goals against (3.11 vs 3.12), which points to a game that can swing on special teams, goaltending variance, and who scores first.

The total is interesting because 5.5 is a relatively modest number in a game where both clubs allow just over 3.1 goals per game. Even if one side underperforms offensively, the defensive profiles still leave room for a 3–3 type of game that pushes you toward the Over.

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New Jersey Devils vs Winnipeg Jets Prediction

I lean Over 5.5, largely because both teams’ goals-against rates live in the low-3s, and neither penalty kill is strong enough to completely suppress the other if the game gets choppy. For the side, I give a slight edge to Winnipeg at home at -122, mostly because New Jersey’s current slide is severe and they haven’t been turning their shot volume into actual goals.

Best Bet: Over 5.5

Side Lean: Jets ML (-122)

Final Score Prediction: Jets 4, Devils 3

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