New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
The Islanders are going back to Toronto Saturday night, and I’m wondering if the Maple Leafs have figured out how to hold a lead yet. Did you see what happened against Buffalo Thursday? Toronto was up 4-2 after two periods and lost 5-4 in overtime. That’s a game you should win. Instead, the Leafs spent the third period watching Buffalo take over. Now they’ve got an Islanders team coming in that hasn’t been scoring much, but has been pretty stingy defensively. These two already met in September, with Toronto winning 2-1. They’ll get together again October 17 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, with the puck dropping at 7:00 PM ET. I’m leaning toward the Islanders in this one. Toronto has the better offense, but the way the Leafs have been protecting leads lately doesn’t make me want to lay money on them. Check out our free NHL picks for more NHL predictions throughout the season.
New York Islanders Have Been Making Teams Work For Goals
New York is 3-3-1 overall, and the Islanders haven’t exactly been setting the league on fire. They beat Vancouver 3-2 Tuesday, then went into Ottawa Thursday and lost 2-1 in a shootout. That Ottawa game wasn’t much to look at offensively. The Islanders managed one goal, and their goalie had to keep them hanging around. But they’ve allowed only three goals over those last two games, and that’s something I can get behind. Earlier this season, they shut out New Jersey 6-0 and held Chicago to one goal in a 4-1 win. They aren’t going to win many games by trying to outscore everybody. When they keep things tight and make the other team earn its chances, they’re a much tougher bunch to beat.
The Islanders have scored 20 goals through seven games and allowed 16. That’s 2.86 goals scored and 2.29 allowed per night. Not a bad tradeoff, especially when you’re facing a Toronto team that just gave up five to Buffalo. The Islanders aren’t getting a ton of offense, and that’s what worries me about taking them on the road. They can go long stretches without creating much of anything. But the defense has been pretty solid, and they’ve shown they can keep games close against good offensive teams. The first meeting with Toronto finished 2-1. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get something similar Saturday. New York isn’t interested in getting into a 5-4 game with the Leafs, and I don’t blame them.
The Islanders’ leading goal scorer had four goals entering Thursday, and their top young defenseman had four assists. They’ve been getting some production from the blue line, which has helped because the forwards haven’t always been finishing their chances. The goaltending has been the real strength. Their regular starter made 24 saves in Tuesday’s win over Vancouver, and the backup stopped 18 of 19 against Ottawa Thursday. Mathew Barzal has been unavailable, and that’s a pretty big hole in the offense. New York needs more from its remaining forwards, but I trust this team’s ability to keep a game close more than I trust Toronto to put one away.
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Toronto Maple Leafs Keep Giving Away Good Opportunities
Toronto is 3-2-2, and I’m guessing nobody in that dressing room was particularly happy after Thursday’s loss to Buffalo. The Leafs had a two-goal lead going into the third period. Two goals! And somehow they ended up losing in overtime. Buffalo outshot them 11-4 in the third, and Toronto looked like a team just waiting for the final horn instead of trying to finish the job. That’s the kind of loss that drives a coach nuts. The Leafs had beaten Colorado 6-3 earlier in the week, so it’s not like they can’t play good hockey. But they’ve been inconsistent, and now they’ve got an Islanders team coming in that isn’t going to give them a lot of easy chances.
The Leafs have been scoring plenty, and that’s what makes them dangerous. They put six past Colorado and four past Buffalo. They’ve got enough offense to win games even when they’re not playing particularly well defensively. But look at the other end. Toronto gave up five to Buffalo, and the Sabres didn’t exactly need to dominate the first two periods to stay in the game. The Leafs have also been giving up too many quality chances around their net. Their power play can hurt you, but New York has been pretty good at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. If Toronto gets frustrated and starts forcing plays, that’s where the Islanders can make this a miserable night for them.
Toronto’s leading goal scorer had five goals entering Thursday, and the Leafs got another big offensive performance against Buffalo. There’s no shortage of scoring talent here. The problem is what’s happening behind those forwards. Chris Tanev is out week-to-week with an upper-body injury, and that’s a tough loss for a defense that’s already been having problems protecting leads. Max Domi is also sidelined with a back injury, while John Tavares left Thursday’s game after a collision and needs to be watched heading into Saturday. Toronto’s goaltending hasn’t been consistent enough to cover every defensive mistake. The Leafs might have more offensive talent than the Islanders, but I’m not convinced they’re playing the better team game right now.
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions
New York Islanders Moneyline
I’m taking the Islanders, and I know Toronto can score. That’s the part that makes me nervous. The Leafs have put up ten goals in their last two games, and New York isn’t exactly loaded with offensive firepower right now. But I keep coming back to that Buffalo game. Toronto had a 4-2 lead after two periods and couldn’t finish it. Buffalo got 11 shots in the third while the Leafs managed four. That’s not just a bad bounce or an unlucky goal. That’s a team getting outplayed when it should be closing the door. New York has allowed only 16 goals in seven games, and the Islanders have already shown they can keep Toronto in check. They lost the first meeting 2-1, but that’s a game they could have won with one more bounce. I’m not saying the Islanders are the better team over 82 games. I just think they’re capable of making this an ugly, tight game, and that’s exactly what Toronto doesn’t need right now. Give me New York to steal one on the road.
Under 6.5 Goals
I’m going under 6.5, and the Islanders are the biggest reason. New York has allowed just 16 goals in seven games, and the last two opponents have managed only three combined. Toronto has been scoring lately, I know. Six against Colorado, four against Buffalo. That’s ten goals in two games, and it’s not something I’m ignoring. But the Islanders aren’t going to play the same wide-open game Buffalo did. They’re going to try to slow things down, keep Toronto out of the middle of the ice, and make the Leafs work for every decent scoring chance. The first meeting finished 2-1, and I think we’re looking at another game where goals are hard to come by. Toronto could certainly ruin this if it gets rolling early, but I don’t see New York contributing enough offense to push the total over on its own. Something like 3-2 either way sounds about right. Give me the under 6.5.
Final Picks: New York Islanders Moneyline and Under 6.5 Goals
This article was completed on October 16, 2026. Betting odds, starting goaltenders, injury reports, and other game information may change before puck drop.
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