Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Picks and Predictions for Sunday January 18 2026
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The Ottawa Senators visit the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena for a 5:00 PM EST puck drop on Sunday, January 18, 2026, with coverage on ESPN+ and FanDuel Sports Network Detroit. Detroit is the home favorite on the moneyline at -135 while Ottawa comes back at +114, and the total is set at 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105). The puck line lists Detroit -1.5 (+170) with Ottawa +1.5 (-205). Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more NHL matchups and best bet options.
Ottawa’s Offense Can Hang, But The Penalty Kill Is A Problem
Ottawa enters this one at 22-19-5 overall with an 11-10-2 road record, and their last five includes wins over the Rangers and Canucks, with losses to the Panthers, Avalanche, and Mammoth. The recent stretch shows Ottawa can score in bunches when the game opens up, but they’ve also had trouble keeping opponents from putting up crooked numbers.
Stat-wise, the Senators are scoring 3.22 goals per game while allowing 3.33, and they’re generating 28.5 shots per game while giving up 25.2 shots against per game. Their power play has been productive with 35 power play goals on a 22.7% success rate, but the penalty kill has been shaky at 72.4% with 37 power play goals against, which is a major concern in a matchup against a strong special teams opponent.
The most notable thing Ottawa brings is shot suppression at 25.2 shots against per game, but that advantage can get neutralized quickly if they keep taking penalties and letting teams cash in on the power play.
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Detroit’s Home Edge Starts With Special Teams
Detroit comes in at 29-16-4 overall and has been excellent at home at 17-8-1, while their last five includes wins over the Sharks, Hurricanes (in OT), Canadiens, and Canucks, with the only recent loss coming against the Bruins. That form suggests Detroit is playing consistent hockey and finding ways to win even when games get tight.
From a team-stats angle, the Red Wings are averaging 3.09 goals per game and allowing 3.02, with 28.0 shots per game and 28.1 shots against per game. Detroit’s power play stands out with 38 power play goals and a 24.7% power play percentage, and they’ve backed it up with an 80.0% penalty kill while allowing just 26 power play goals against. Against an Ottawa penalty kill sitting at 72.4%, that special teams gap matters.
Detroit’s clearest edge is the power play efficiency, and in a game priced modestly on the moneyline, the team more likely to convert the “bonus chances” is usually the side you want.
Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Pick
Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Pick
- Pick: Detroit Red Wings -135 (Moneyline)
Detroit is the play for me because they’ve been the steadier team at home and their special teams profile sets up well against Ottawa’s biggest weakness. Ottawa can score, but the Senators’ penalty kill has allowed too many power play goals, and Detroit’s power play has been one of their best win drivers. In a building where Detroit has been strong, I’ll back the Red Wings to take care of business.
Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Total Pick
- Pick: Over 6.5 (-115)
I’m going over because both teams are sitting above three goals per game offensively, and Ottawa games can accelerate quickly when special teams get involved. Detroit’s power play should create high-quality chances, and Ottawa’s offense is capable enough to contribute even if they’re trading goals. With Ottawa allowing 3.33 goals per game and Detroit allowing 3.02, this number is reachable if each team gets into the 3-goal range.
Final Score Prediction: Red Wings 4, Senators 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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