Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
You ever look at a hockey team’s record and wonder how the heck they’re still waiting for their first win? Well, take a look at Philadelphia. Nine games. Not one victory. And the Flyers have scored just 11 goals. Eleven! Ottawa’s coming to town Saturday, and I’m having a hard time finding a good reason to bet on the home team. The Senators haven’t been perfect, either. They got absolutely hammered by St. Louis earlier this week. But they’ve won six of eight, and their goaltending has been pretty darn good. These two meet at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on October 17, 2026, with the puck dropping at 7:00 PM ET. Ottawa is listed around -160 on one betting board, with Philadelphia at +136. The Senators aren’t exactly cheap, but there’s a reason they’re favored. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more NHL predictions throughout the season.
Ottawa Senators Have Been Winning Even When It Gets Ugly
Ottawa is 6-2-0, and the Senators have won four of their last five games. That’s a pretty good start, especially considering what happened Tuesday. St. Louis came into Ottawa and beat them 7-2. Seven goals! That’s the kind of night where you want to throw the tape in the trash and forget it ever happened. But Ottawa came back Thursday and beat the Islanders 2-1 in a shootout. Was it pretty? Not particularly. They needed their goalie to make 20 saves, and they couldn’t settle the game in regulation or overtime. But they got the two points. Earlier this month, they also beat Philadelphia 2-1 on October 8. So we’ve already seen what happens when these teams get together, and it wasn’t exactly a scoring festival.
Ottawa has scored 21 goals in eight games and allowed 20. That’s 2.63 goals scored and 2.5 allowed per night. Those aren’t numbers that make you think of some unstoppable offensive machine. But here’s the thing. Seven of those goals against came in one game against St. Louis. Take that disaster out, and the Senators have allowed 13 in their other seven games. That’s less than two per night. Now, you can’t just erase a bad game because you don’t like it, but it does tell you Ottawa’s defense has been better than the overall average suggests. The goaltending has been excellent when their regular starter is in net, and that’s a big deal against a Philadelphia team that can’t seem to buy a goal. The Senators don’t need to score five Saturday. Three might be plenty.
Ottawa’s leading offensive players have been producing at a decent clip, with their top scorer contributing three goals and several assists through the opening stretch. The real difference has been in goal. Their regular starter is unbeaten through six decisions and has been stopping nearly 95% of the shots he’s faced. That’s a pretty nice safety net. But Ottawa does have some injury problems. William Eklund is out for 10 to 12 weeks after ankle surgery, and that’s a tough loss up front. Nikolas Matinpalo and Kurtis MacDermid are also sidelined. Jake Sanderson has been dealing with a lower-body injury, while Ridly Greig has been listed day-to-day. Those absences matter, and I’d feel a lot better about Ottawa if everybody were healthy. Still, they’ve been finding ways to win, and that’s more than we can say for Philadelphia.
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Philadelphia Flyers Can’t Find A Way To Win
Philadelphia is 0-6-3, and I’m running out of ways to describe how bad this start has been. They lost 7-0 to Pittsburgh on opening night, and things haven’t gotten much better. They’ve lost to New Jersey, Carolina twice, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Boston, Seattle, and Detroit. Thursday’s 2-1 loss to Detroit was especially frustrating because the Flyers actually had a lead. They were up 1-0 after the first period, then watched Detroit tie it in the second and score the winner with less than five minutes left. Another night, another loss. Nine games without a win is a franchise record to start a season. And now they’ve got to face a team that already beat them once. Not exactly the matchup I’d pick if I were trying to break a losing streak.
The Flyers have scored 11 goals in nine games. That’s 1.22 per night. You can have the best goalie in the league, and you’re still going to have trouble winning if that’s all the offense you’re getting. Philadelphia has also allowed 32 goals, or 3.56 per game. So they’re scoring a little more than one and giving up more than three and a half. That’s not a recipe for anything good. The power play hasn’t helped, either. They went 0-for-2 against Detroit, and they’ve struggled to create dangerous chances with the extra man. The Flyers managed just 18 shots Thursday. Eighteen! You aren’t going to score many goals doing that. Ottawa’s defense isn’t perfect, but I don’t see Philadelphia suddenly finding four or five goals against a team that’s been getting excellent goaltending.
Philadelphia’s leading goal scorer has three through nine games, and that tells you a lot about the offense right there. They’ve had a few decent individual performances, but nobody’s been able to carry this team out of its slump. The injuries haven’t helped. Travis Konecny is out with a lower-body injury, and that’s a big piece of their offense missing. Rasmus Ristolainen and Cam York have also been sidelined, leaving the defense short-handed. Nikita Grebenkin remains out following back surgery. The Flyers have been trying different combinations, but nothing has worked consistently. Maybe they finally catch a break Saturday. Hockey can be a funny game. But I’m not going to bet on a team finding its first win just because I feel sorry for them.
Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers Picks and Predictions
Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-160)
I’m taking Ottawa, and I don’t think we need to make this complicated. Philadelphia hasn’t won a game, and the Flyers are averaging 1.22 goals. Ottawa has won six of eight and already beat them 2-1 earlier this month. That’s a pretty good starting point. Now, I know the Senators got embarrassed by St. Louis, and the injuries are piling up. That’s why I’m not calling this some guaranteed winner. But Ottawa bounced back against the Islanders, and their goaltending has been good enough to cover for a few mistakes. Philadelphia’s offense is so bad right now that I’m not sure how they’re supposed to take advantage of Ottawa’s missing players. The one thing that worries me is the price. At -160, we’re paying a little extra for the better team, and the Flyers are eventually going to win one. Could be Saturday. But I’m not going to talk myself into betting on that happening. Give me Ottawa to take care of business.
Under 5.5 Goals
I’m going under 5.5, and Philadelphia is the reason. Eleven goals in nine games. That’s not a slump anymore. That’s a serious offensive problem. The Flyers have scored more than two goals exactly zero times this season. Ottawa already held them to one goal in their first meeting, and I don’t see a whole lot that’s changed since then. The Senators aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard themselves, either. They’ve scored two goals in each of their last two games. Sure, Ottawa could blow this up by scoring five on its own. Philadelphia has been giving up plenty, and that’s the danger with taking an under against a team this bad defensively. But the Senators have been playing tighter games when their regular goalie is in net, and the Flyers have been struggling to generate shots. I can see Ottawa winning 3-1 or 3-2, and either score gets us home. I’ll take the under 5.5.
Final Picks: Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-160) and Under 5.5 Goals
This article was completed on October 16, 2026. Betting odds, starting goaltenders, and injury reports may change before puck drop.
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