Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 14 2026
Ottawa heads to Pittsburgh Saturday night for a 7 PM ET matchup at PPG Paints Arena. The Penguins have their Hall of Fame celebration going on, so the crowd should be pretty lively. Pittsburgh could use that little extra push. The Penguins have been struggling, while Ottawa just knocked off Colorado in overtime Thursday. The Senators are playing better hockey, and their goaltending situation has improved. Pittsburgh might make a game of it at home, but I like what Ottawa has been doing lately. Be ready for all the ice melting action with our free NHL picks.
Ottawa Is Starting to Look Like a Playoff Team
The Senators are 12-6-2 overall and have earned points in four straight games. Thursday’s 4-3 overtime victory against Colorado was a good one. Ottawa jumped ahead 2-0, watched the Avalanche score three straight, then tied it late before winning in overtime. That could have turned into a pretty frustrating loss. Instead, the Senators found a way to finish. They’ve won three of their last four, with the only loss coming in overtime against Washington. Ottawa has been playing with more confidence, and it shows when games get tight.
Ottawa is averaging 3.20 goals per game and allowing 3.00. The Senators are generating 25.8 shots a night while allowing 27.0, so they’re not exactly overwhelming opponents with shot volume. Their power play has been disappointing at 11.8%, but the offense has been getting enough done at even strength. The penalty kill sits at 75.0%, which is another area that needs improvement. Still, Ottawa held Colorado to 26 shots Thursday, and that’s a pretty decent effort against an offense that averages more than four goals per game. The Senators don’t have to dominate every shift to win, especially when they’re getting reliable goaltending.
Ottawa’s biggest boost Thursday was getting its starting goaltender back after a nine-game absence. He entered the game with a 7-1-0 record, a 1.33 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage. Those are outstanding numbers. Nick Cousins remains an injury concern after leaving the Washington game, and his Saturday status needs confirmation. The Senators have enough scoring depth to handle a missing forward, but the goaltending is what really changes this matchup. If Ottawa gets another strong performance in net, Pittsburgh is going to have a difficult time keeping pace.
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Pittsburgh Still Has Too Many Defensive Problems
The Penguins are 7-10-2 overall, and they’ve won only four of their first eight home games. They beat San Jose 3-2 in a shootout Wednesday, snapping a two-game losing streak. Pittsburgh had a 2-0 lead in that game and nearly gave it away. San Jose scored twice in the third period, and the Penguins needed overtime and a shootout to escape. That’s been the story with Pittsburgh. The team has enough offense to get ahead, but protecting those leads has been another matter. Saturday’s game will be their first at home after the California trip.
Pittsburgh is scoring 3.21 goals per game and allowing 3.53. That’s a problem when you’re trying to beat a team like Ottawa. The Penguins are generating 27.7 shots a night and allowing about the same number, so the shot totals don’t look terrible. But too many of the chances against have been dangerous ones. Their power play is converting 21.1%, while the penalty kill sits at 78.9%. Pittsburgh also gave up 36 shots against San Jose Wednesday. The Penguins can score, but they haven’t been defending consistently enough to make those goals count.
Pittsburgh needed 34 saves from its goaltender against San Jose, and that was a big reason the Penguins got two points. The offense has been getting contributions from different lines, but the team is still dealing with injuries. Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Elmer Soderblom were unavailable for the San Jose game, with their Saturday status still needing confirmation. The Penguins have some experienced players who can make a difference, especially on the power play. But they need a much cleaner defensive game than they’ve been producing lately.
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Prediction
Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline
I’m taking Ottawa. Pittsburgh is at home, and the Hall of Fame celebration should give the building some energy. That’s nice, but it doesn’t fix the Penguins’ defensive problems. They’re allowing 3.53 goals a game and just needed a shootout to beat San Jose. Ottawa has been playing better hockey against better competition, and getting its starting goaltender back is a pretty big deal. The Senators just beat Colorado, which tells me they’re capable of handling Pittsburgh’s offense. Could the Penguins get hot on the power play and steal this one? Sure. But I trust Ottawa more defensively, and that’s enough for me.
Total Pick: Under 6.5 Goals
I like the under if we get 6.5. Ottawa has been getting better goaltending, and Pittsburgh hasn’t been finishing enough of its chances. The Penguins are allowing too many goals, so there’s certainly some danger if Ottawa gets rolling. The Senators also have penalty-killing issues, which could give Pittsburgh some opportunities. But I don’t see either team needing to play a wide-open game. Ottawa should be comfortable keeping things controlled, and Pittsburgh would be smart to do the same. Something around 3-2 or 4-2 makes sense to me. I’ll take the under at 6.5.
Final Picks: Ottawa Senators Moneyline and Under 6.5 Goals
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