Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators Picks and Prediction for Thursday March 26 2026
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The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to face the Ottawa Senators at the Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday, March 26, 2026, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM on ESPN+. The Senators enter as home favorites with a moneyline of -155, while the Penguins come in at +130. The total for this matchup is set at 6.5 goals, and the puck line has Pittsburgh at +1.5 (-205) and Ottawa at -1.5 (+170). Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more daily betting insights and predictions.
Penguins Looking to Regain Offensive Rhythm on the Road
The Pittsburgh Penguins come into this matchup with a 35-20-16 overall record, including an 18-9-8 mark on the road. However, they have struggled recently, as they have recently lost to Colorado, Carolina twice, and managed just one win in their last five games, a shootout victory over Winnipeg. Their recent stretch has been inconsistent, especially defensively, where they’ve allowed five or more goals in multiple outings.
Offensively, the Penguins have been strong this season, averaging 3.39 goals per game on 29.0 shots. Their power play has been a major strength, converting at 24.1% with 49 goals, while their penalty kill sits at a solid 82.9%. They also limit short-handed damage effectively, allowing zero short-handed goals this season.
One area Pittsburgh continues to excel in is their ability to generate consistent scoring chances while limiting opponent shot volume. Allowing just 27.4 shots per game while maintaining a high-scoring offense shows balance. However, their recent defensive lapses could be a concern heading into a tough road matchup against a red-hot Ottawa team.
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Senators Riding Momentum Into Home Ice Clash
The Ottawa Senators enter this contest with a 38-24-9 record and an 18-11-5 mark at home. Ottawa is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having recently won four straight games over Detroit, New York, Toronto, and the Islanders before a loss to Washington. Their strong recent form has been fueled by both solid defense and timely scoring.
The Senators are averaging 3.32 goals per game while allowing 3.04 goals against. They match Pittsburgh in shot production at 29.0 per game but excel defensively, allowing just 24.0 shots per game, which is a significant advantage. Their power play is effective at 22.8%, though their penalty kill has struggled at 75.0%.
What stands out for Ottawa is their ability to control possession and limit opponent opportunities. Their low shots-against numbers highlight a structured defensive system, and their recent winning streak shows they are executing well on both ends of the ice. If they maintain that defensive discipline, they will be difficult to beat at home.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators Pick
Penguins vs Senators Pick
- Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-155)
Ottawa enters this game in far better form, and their defensive structure gives them a clear edge. While Pittsburgh has the offensive firepower to compete, their recent defensive struggles are concerning, especially against a team that is limiting shots as effectively as Ottawa. The Senators’ ability to control the pace and capitalize on opportunities should allow them to secure the win at home.
Penguins vs Senators Total Pick
- Pick: Over 6.5
I’m going with the over in this one because Pittsburgh’s recent games have been high-scoring affairs, largely due to defensive breakdowns. Even though Ottawa plays a more controlled style, their offense has been productive enough to contribute to the total. I expect both teams to find the net multiple times, pushing this game over the number.
Final Score Prediction: Ottawa Senators 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.
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