Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions for Thursday December 4 2025
The Pittsburgh Penguins head south for a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night, with both teams entering this game coming off drastically different performances. Pittsburgh just crushed Philadelphia 5–1 thanks to a vintage Sidney Crosby showing, while Tampa Bay fell 2–1 to the Islanders despite another strong outing from Andrei Vasilevskiy. Before we break down where the betting value sits, make sure you check out today’s free NHL picks for more insight.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Team Form, Goaltending & Key Edges
Pittsburgh enters at 13-7-5 and a strong 7-3-3 road record, showing that they can travel well and win in tough buildings. Sidney Crosby has been electric with 29 points (18G, 11A) and seven power-play goals. The Penguins’ offense averages 3.16 goals per game, supported by Evgeni Malkin’s 20 assists, and their power play sits at an impressive 33.3%, one of the best marks in the NHL.
In goal, Tristan Jarry has been steady with a 2.57 GAA and .911 SV%, which gives Pittsburgh stability in most matchups. Their penalty kill at 84.9% is another major strength, helping them survive games where their 5-on-5 play isn’t perfect.
The Penguins have several injuries (Rakell, Acciari, Brazeau), but nothing massively shifts their top-six structure, and their most important stars remain healthy.
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Tampa Bay Lightning – Team Form, Vasilevskiy’s Importance & Home Ice Factor
The Lightning come in at 16-8-2 and 8-5-0 at home, but their recent form has been a little choppy. They’re 3–2 over their last five, including an impressive win over the Rangers and a 6–3 takedown of Detroit, but the 2–1 loss to the Islanders showed some of their inconsistencies when the scoring dries up.
Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to be elite with a 2.31 GAA and .917 SV%, giving Tampa arguably the biggest individual edge in this matchup. Offensively, Tampa averages 3.27 goals per game, led by Nikita Kucherov’s 32 points (11G, 21A) and Brandon Hagel’s 15 goals. Their special teams are more mediocre than usual — power play at 16.3%, penalty kill strong at 89.2%.
Injuries to Brayden Point and Erik Cernak matter, especially Point, whose absence drags down Tampa’s top-six playmaking and finishing ability.
Statistical Matchup Breakdown
Offense: • PIT: 3.16 GF/G • TB: 3.27 GF/G Edge: Slight Tampa
Defense: • PIT: 2.72 GA/G • TB: 2.58 GA/G Edge: Tampa
Goaltending: • Jarry good, but Vasilevskiy elite Edge: Tampa
Special Teams: • PIT PP 33.3% vs TB PK 89.2% • TB PP 16.3% vs PIT PK 84.9% Huge edge to Penguins on the power play
Picks and Predictions
I’m taking the Pittsburgh Penguins +170. The value is simply too strong for a team with elite special teams and a forward group playing with confidence. Tampa deserves to be favored at home, but missing Brayden Point hurts, and the Penguins’ power play vs the Lightning’s sometimes-penalty-prone play is a matchup I like.
I also lean Under 6.5, because both goaltenders are in good form and both teams allow under 28 shots per game. Betting on sports and on the Lightning is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Penguins with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Penguins vs Lightning you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
My Final Picks:
- Penguins ML (+170) • Under 6.5
Projected Score:
Penguins 3 – Lightning 2
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