Seattle Kraken vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 15 2026
The Seattle Kraken are heading to Tampa Bay on Thursday, October 15, 2026, to face the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena. Puck drop is at 7:00 PM ET. Seattle just beat Philadelphia 3-2 in a shootout, while Tampa Bay lost 4-1 to the Rangers on Tuesday. The Lightning are favored at -155, with Seattle getting +129 and the total at 6.5 goals. I’m taking the Kraken here. Yeah, I know. Tampa Bay at home is usually a team I’d rather not bet against. But Seattle has been playing some good hockey. Three straight road wins, and they’re scoring four goals a game. That’s pretty darn good. Tampa’s power play has been terrible, too. I think Seattle has a better shot at winning this than the odds suggest. Make sure you check out all of our free NHL picks.
Seattle Kraken Have Been Scoring Plenty Of Goals
Seattle is 5-2 and has won three straight, all on the road. Not bad for a team that started the season with pretty low expectations. The Kraken beat Detroit 6-3, Washington 5-3 and Philadelphia 3-2 in a shootout. The Flyers game got a little interesting. Seattle led 2-0 heading into the third period, then gave up two goals in just over a minute. Come on. You can’t keep doing that. Luckily, the Kraken settled down and pulled it out in the shootout. They also beat Calgary 6-1 twice earlier this season. So we’ve seen them put up six goals three different times already. I don’t care who you’re playing. That’s some good offense.
The Kraken are averaging four goals per game and allowing 2.71. They’ve scored 28 goals in seven games, not counting the shootout winner. That’s a lot of pucks going into the net. Seattle is getting around 26.9 shots per game, which isn’t even that many. They’re just making them count. The power play is clicking at 22.7%, and the penalty kill is at 78.9%. I’d like that penalty kill a little higher, but Tampa Bay has been struggling with the extra attacker anyway. Seattle is allowing 30.6 shots per game, though. That’s the number that worries me. Give Tampa Bay 30 chances, and you’re asking for trouble. The Kraken have been getting good saves, but they can’t expect their goalies to bail them out every night.
Seattle’s goaltending has been pretty solid. The two main options have save percentages of .913 and .918, and both have helped the Kraken win games. The starter Tuesday made 24 saves against Philadelphia and stopped four of five shootout attempts. That’s getting the job done. Seattle is also getting goals from different parts of the lineup. That’s what I like. They’re not waiting around for one line to do everything. The injuries are worth watching. Ryan Lindgren is out with an upper-body problem, while Jacob Melanson is sidelined with a chest injury. Jake O’Brien is also unavailable with a lower-body injury. Missing Lindgren hurts the defense, especially against a team that can move the puck like Tampa Bay. But Seattle has been winning without everybody healthy. I don’t see a reason to suddenly stop trusting the offense.
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Tampa Bay Lightning Need To Get Back On Track
Tampa Bay is 4-2 and has won both home games. The Lightning had won four straight before going into New York on Tuesday and losing 4-1 to the Rangers. That wasn’t much fun. Tampa Bay fell behind early, couldn’t get anything going offensively and spent the night chasing the game. The Rangers scored twice in the first period and never really gave the Lightning much of a chance. Before that, Tampa Bay beat the Islanders 5-3, Minnesota 3-2, Philadelphia 4-1 and Washington 3-1. Four straight wins. Pretty good hockey. So I’m not saying the Lightning are suddenly falling apart because they lost one game. But Seattle has been scoring a lot more than most of the teams Tampa has faced recently. That matters.
The Lightning are scoring 2.83 goals a game and allowing 2.67. Those aren’t bad numbers, but Seattle’s offense has been a lot better. Tampa Bay is getting 29.5 shots per game and allowing only 23.8. That’s actually impressive. The Lightning have been doing a good job keeping opponents from getting many shots. The problem is finishing their own chances. Tampa Bay has scored only 17 goals in six games. And that power play? It’s converting just 8.3% of its opportunities. Eight percent! That’s not what you’d expect from this team. The penalty kill is sitting at 80%, which is decent enough. But if Tampa Bay can’t start taking advantage of power plays, it’s going to keep making games harder than necessary. Seattle’s penalty kill isn’t great. The Lightning need to do something with that opportunity.
Tampa Bay’s offense has shown it can wake up in a hurry. The Lightning scored five against the Islanders and four against Philadelphia. They also had a forward put up a hat trick against New York’s other team over the weekend. So there’s certainly some scoring talent here. The goaltending has been a little uneven. Tampa Bay’s main starter has a .886 save percentage and a 2.45 goals-against average through the early part of the season. He made 19 saves in the loss to the Rangers. That’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly shutting everybody down, either. The Lightning also have injuries. Yanni Gourde is out with a hip problem, and Emil Lilleberg has been sidelined with an undisclosed injury. Losing Gourde takes away some depth up front, while Lilleberg’s absence leaves the defense a little thinner. Tampa Bay is still a good team. I just don’t think it’s playing well enough to be this big a favorite against Seattle.
Seattle Kraken vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Seattle Kraken +129
I’m taking Seattle at +129. Look, I know Tampa Bay is tough at home. The Lightning are 2-0 there, and they’ve allowed only 2.67 goals a game. They could absolutely win this. But why am I getting plus money on a Kraken team that’s 5-2 and has won three straight road games? Seattle is scoring four goals a night. Tampa Bay is at 2.83. That’s a pretty big difference. I also like Seattle’s power play a lot better right now. The Kraken are converting 22.7%, while Tampa is at 8.3%. The Lightning have been better at limiting shots, and that could cause Seattle some problems. That’s my biggest concern. The Kraken aren’t putting 40 pucks on net every night. They’re finishing the chances they get. But Tampa Bay just scored once against the Rangers, and Seattle has been finding ways to win even when things get messy. At +129, I’ll take my chances with the Kraken.
Total Pick: Over 6.5 Goals
Give me Over 6.5 goals. Seattle is averaging four goals a game. Four! The Kraken have scored six goals three times already, and they’ve put up five against Washington. Tampa Bay isn’t scoring at that pace, but the Lightning still have enough offense to put three on the board. Seattle is allowing more than 30 shots per game. That’s plenty of chances for Tampa Bay to work with. The one thing that bothers me is how few shots the Lightning have been allowing. They’re giving up only 23.8 per game. If they hold Seattle to 20 shots and get good goaltending, this could turn into a 3-2 game pretty quickly. I get that. But Seattle has been finishing its chances, and Tampa Bay’s goaltending hasn’t exactly been stealing games. The Lightning are also going to be looking for a better offensive showing after scoring once against New York. I think both teams get going. Something like 4-3 Seattle sounds about right. I’ll take Over 6.5.
Final Picks: Seattle Kraken Moneyline +129 and Over 6.5 Goals.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting odds, injuries and starting goalies may change before puck drop. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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