St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins Picks and Predictions for Thursday December 4 2025
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The St. Louis Blues travel to TD Garden on Thursday night to face the Boston Bruins in an inter-conference matchup between a struggling Blues side and a Bruins team that keeps bouncing between promise and frustration. St. Louis sits at 9-11-7 and has been wildly inconsistent on both ends of the ice, while Boston is 15-13-0 and still trying to tighten up defensively despite strong home results. With Boston actually sitting at plus money on the board, this game becomes especially interesting from a betting perspective. Before we dive into the numbers, you can always cross-check this breakdown with the rest of today’s free NHL Picks.
St. Louis Blues – Recent Form and Betting Profile
The Blues come into this one having dropped three of their last five, with their most recent outing a 4–1 home loss to Anaheim. That followed a tight 1–0 win over Utah and a 4–3 win over Ottawa, but zooming out, St. Louis has struggled to get traction. At 9-11-7 overall and 4-5-3 on the road, they’ve been just competitive enough to hang around, but not consistent enough to inspire betting confidence.
Offensively, the numbers are underwhelming. St. Louis averages just 2.56 goals per game on 25.3 shots, which puts them near the lower tier of NHL attacks. Robert Thomas leads the team with 17 points (4G, 13A), and Jordan Kyrou leads in goals with 8, but there’s no real high-end finisher in form right now. Their power play sits at 19.2%, which is respectable, but not enough to compensate for their general lack of 5-on-5 scoring.
Defensively, things don’t look much better. The Blues allow 3.44 goals per game on 27.3 shots, a combination that points to both structural issues and goaltending inconsistency. Jordan Binnington has a 3.20 GAA and .878 save percentage, while Joel Hofer is at 3.29 GAA and .882. Neither has been able to steal many games, and both have struggled to keep the team afloat when breakdowns happen in front of them.
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Injuries also haven’t helped: multiple depth forwards (Nathan Walker, Alexey Toropchenko, Jimmy Snuggerud, Zach Dean) are out, thinning St. Louis’ ability to roll four effective lines. That has knock-on effects on matchup deployment and late-game push.
Boston Bruins – Recent Form and Betting Profile
Boston’s record of 15-13-0 and 9-5-0 at home suggests a solid team, but the last couple of weeks have been a mixed bag. In their last five, the Bruins beat Detroit in a shootout and the Islanders on the road, but took heavy losses to the Rangers and Sharks, and just dropped a 5–4 game in Detroit. The pattern: the Bruins can score, but lately they’ve had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net.
Offensively, Boston is reasonably strong, averaging 3.04 goals per game on 27.1 shots. David Pastrnak remains the offensive heartbeat with 29 points (11G, 18A), even while listed day-to-day. Morgan Geekie has been a surprise standout with 20 goals, including five on the power play, giving Boston a second major threat that teams have to key on. The Bruins’ power play sits at a healthy 24.7%, which is a clear edge over St. Louis.
Defensively, Boston allows 3.25 goals per game and 30.6 shots, which is higher than you’d expect from a Bruins team—particularly at home. That said, goaltending is still more of a strength than a liability. Jeremy Swayman has an 11-7-0 record with a 2.80 GAA and .910 save percentage, giving Boston a legitimate stabilizer in net. Joonas Korpisalo has been more volatile (3.52 GAA, .880 SV%), but as long as Swayman gets the crease, Boston’s defensive ceiling is still decent.
On the injury front, the Bruins are dealing with some key absences on the blue line: Charlie McAvoy and Henri Jokiharju are both on IR, while Pastrnak and Michael Callahan are day-to-day. Even so, this is still a deeper, more talented roster than what St. Louis is skating.
St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins – Statistical Matchup & Bettor’s Edge
From a statistical standpoint, Boston holds most of the edges that matter:
- Goals per game: Bruins 3.04 vs Blues 2.56
- Goals against per game: Bruins 3.25 vs Blues 3.44
- Shots for per game: Bruins 27.1 vs Blues 25.3
- Power play: Bruins 24.7% vs Blues 19.2%
- Penalty kill: Bruins 82.6% vs Blues 76.6%
St. Louis is not completely outclassed—defensively they allow fewer shots than Boston—but their goaltending hasn’t held up well enough to convert that into fewer actual goals against. Meanwhile, Boston’s special teams profile is clearly stronger on both sides of special teams.
From a situational angle, the Bruins are at home with a winning record in their building, whereas the Blues are again on the road with a 4-5-3 away mark and very limited scoring depth. St. Louis has only scored more than three goals once in their last five, while Boston—despite defensive concerns—continues to generate enough offense to stay in most games.
The most interesting market angle here is the pricing: Boston sitting as the underdog at home (around +114) is not something you see often against a sub-.500 team like St. Louis. That’s where the potential bettor’s edge lies.
Picks and Prediction
After going through the numbers, I’m backing the Boston Bruins on the moneyline (+114). Getting Boston at plus money at home against a Blues team that struggles to score and has below-average goaltending is exactly the kind of spot I want to attack. Swayman gives the Bruins a clear edge in net, their power play is more dangerous, and their offensive core (with Geekie’s finishing and Pastrnak likely available) should be able to break down a St. Louis team that has allowed 3.44 goals per game.
On the total, I lean to the over 5.5 goals (-110). You’ve got two teams allowing over three goals per game, with Boston giving up over 30 shots per night and St. Louis getting sub-.880 goaltending across the board. Even if Swayman plays well, I still expect Boston to contribute the bulk of the scoring here, and the Blues are capable of chipping in a couple—especially if this turns into a penalty-filled game where both power plays see time. Betting on sports and on the Blues is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Bruins with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Blues vs Bruins you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
My Final Picks:
- Boston Bruins ML (+114)
- Over 5.5 Goals (-110)
Projected Final Score:
Bruins 4 – Blues 2
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