St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks Picks & Predictions for Wednesday January 7, 2026
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The St. Louis Blues travel to United Center to face the Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 9:30 PM ET on TNT/HBO Max/truTV. St. Louis comes in at 17-18-8 overall with a 7-9-3 road record, while Chicago is 17-18-7 overall and 9-8-4 at home. St. Louis is priced as the road favorite at -142 (listed -125), with Chicago at +105, and the total is set at 5.5 goals. The NHL season is in full skate and you can find all of the best free NHL picks.
St. Louis Blues Team Breakdown
St. Louis has had a tough season offensively. The Blues are scoring just 2.49 goals per game, and that limited scoring ceiling puts pressure on them to win games with goaltending and efficiency. Defensively, they’ve allowed 3.35 goals per game, which is a problem when your offense is under 2.5 per night—St. Louis has often needed to play near-perfect to cash as a favorite.
The shot profile reinforces the concern. The Blues average 24.6 shots per game and allow 28.1, so they’re often playing without a shot-volume edge. If they’re not winning the shot battle, they need special teams or goaltending to swing the game.
Special teams are serviceable but not a true advantage. St. Louis has a 17.3% power play and a 78.4% penalty kill. That’s not bad, but it’s also not the type of profile that consistently bails you out when the 5-on-5 scoring is thin.
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Form, however, is a positive. The Blues are 3-2 in their last five with wins over Montreal (2-0), Vegas (4-3), and Nashville (3-2). The losses were rougher—especially a 6-1 loss at Colorado—but overall they’ve been getting results, and the two most recent games were both wins.
Goaltending is a major swing factor. One option has struggled (3.40 GAA, .874 save percentage), while the other has been much steadier (2.88 GAA, .900 save percentage) with three shutouts listed. If St. Louis gets the better goaltending outcome, it’s much easier to justify them as a road favorite in a game with a low total.
Injuries: St. Louis has a center on IR with an estimated return of January 27. That doesn’t help an already limited offense.
Chicago Blackhawks Team Breakdown
Chicago has a slightly better offensive baseline than St. Louis, scoring 2.76 goals per game, and they’ve been a bit better defensively as well, allowing 3.12 goals per game. That difference matters here because the Blackhawks aren’t needing as much “perfect hockey” to stay competitive in a one-goal type of game.
Their shot numbers are still not ideal. Chicago averages 25.1 shots per game while allowing 29.7, so they’re frequently giving up more volume than they generate. The difference is that Chicago has found ways to win recently despite that, and they’ve been getting contributions that translate into results.
Special teams are a clear edge. Chicago’s power play is 21.2% and their penalty kill is 83.8%, both better than St. Louis (17.3% PP, 78.4% PK). In a rivalry game where emotions can lead to penalties, that special teams advantage is meaningful.
Chicago’s form is strong: they’re 3-2 in their last five, and they’re on a three-game winning streak—an overtime win over Vegas (3-2 OT) on January 4, a shootout win at Washington (3-2 SO) on January 3, and a 4-3 win over Dallas on January 1. Their two losses in that span were a 3-2 shootout loss to the Islanders and a 7-3 loss to Pittsburgh.
Goaltending also leans Chicago if they get their top option. One listed goalie sits at 2.60 GAA with a .910 save percentage, while the other is at 3.87 GAA with a .873 save percentage. If Chicago starts the stronger goaltender, the Blackhawks have a very real path to keeping this game in a low-scoring range and grinding out a win.
Injuries: Chicago has Connor Bedard listed on IR with an estimated return of January 9, plus two other long-term injury listings (including one on IR-LT). Bedard’s absence matters for their scoring ceiling, but Chicago has still been winning games recently without needing to light up the scoreboard.
Matchup Edges and Game Script
This game profiles as a grinder. Both teams have modest scoring rates, and the total at 5.5 fits that expectation. Chicago has the cleaner special teams edge, while St. Louis has the bigger goaltending split—if the Blues start the steadier option, they can absolutely control this game’s shape. If they start the struggling option, Chicago’s power play and recent momentum become much more dangerous.
With Bedard listed on IR, Chicago’s “blow the doors off” upside is capped, but their recent three-game win streak shows they’re comfortable winning close games. St. Louis being favored on the road is mostly a bet that their goaltending and recent results hold up—because the overall season-long profile (2.49 GF/G, 3.35 GA/G) is shaky for a favorite.
Blues vs Blackhawks Picks & Predictions
My preferred play is Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 (-258). With Chicago’s special teams edge (21.2% power play, 83.8% penalty kill) and strong recent form, they’re well-positioned to keep this game within a goal at home—even if St. Louis grinds out a win, this matchup looks like it should stay tight.
For a side, I lean Chicago moneyline (+105) as the value look. The Blackhawks are on a three-game winning streak, they’re at home, and they have a goaltending option with a 2.60 GAA and .910 save percentage that can absolutely steal this type of rivalry game.
For the total, I lean Under 5.5 (-115). Both teams have limited offensive baselines, Bedard is on IR for Chicago, and the most likely script is a low-event game where special teams and goaltending decide it.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks 3, St. Louis Blues 2
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