Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche Picks and Predictions for Friday October 23 2026
Colorado have scored 41 goals in ten games. That’s a pretty healthy number, isn’t it? Four goals a night, give or take, and still only five wins. I’d imagine the Avalanche are getting a little tired of hearing how dangerous their offense is when they’re sitting there with a 5-4-1 record. Tampa Bay won’t be particularly interested in their problems. The Lightning have won three straight, including a 6-2 victory over Vegas on Tuesday. Seven wins in nine games. Not much to complain about there.
Now they get each other in Denver, and I’m expecting a proper hockey game. Both clubs can score. Both have players who can change a game in a couple of shifts. The question is whether Colorado can keep Tampa Bay from doing what it’s been doing for most of October. The Lightning visit the Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, on Friday, October 23, 2026. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET. Colorado are favored at approximately -135, Tampa Bay are +115, and the total is 6.5 goals. Get in on all the NHL betting action with our free NHL picks.
Tampa Bay Lightning Have Been Getting The Job Done
Tampa Bay are 7-2-0 with 14 points, including a 2-2 road record. The Lightning have won three straight and beat Vegas 6-2 in their last game. They also beat Vancouver 4-2 and Seattle 4-3 in overtime during this stretch. They’ve been finding different ways to win, which is usually a good sign. Some nights it’s the offense doing the work. Other nights they’re getting enough stops to make a two-goal lead stand up.
The Lightning have scored 31 goals and conceded 23 through nine games. That’s 3.44 scored and 2.56 allowed per night. Colorado’s offense is going to test that defense, particularly with the way the Avalanche move the puck and create chances. But Tampa Bay aren’t exactly short of attacking ability themselves. They’re averaging almost 30 shots per game, and Colorado have been allowing enough goals to make me think the visitors will get their opportunities.
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Tampa Bay’s leading scorer has 13 points through nine games, and its leading goal scorer has seven. That’s a good start from the top of the lineup, and the Lightning have been getting contributions beyond their first line. Yanni Gourde remains out with a hip injury, while the rest of the available forward group gives Tampa Bay plenty of ways to attack. The starting goaltender will need confirmation, but the club’s overall defensive numbers have been better than Colorado’s.
Colorado Avalanche Have Plenty Of Goals But Not Enough Wins
Colorado are 5-4-1 with 11 points, including a 3-1-1 record at Ball Arena. They’ve lost two straight, falling 3-2 at Philadelphia on Monday and 4-3 at New Jersey on Tuesday. The New Jersey loss was especially frustrating because Colorado generated plenty of chances. The Avalanche aren’t having trouble getting the puck toward the net. They’re having trouble turning all that attacking pressure into enough wins.
Colorado have scored 41 goals and conceded 30 through ten games. That’s 4.1 scored and 3 allowed per night. They’re putting more than 30 shots on goal, and their speed can cause problems for anybody. The defense hasn’t been as dependable. Tampa Bay are scoring 3.44 goals per game, so the Avalanche can’t afford to spend another night giving up odd-man rushes and easy chances. This could get away from either club pretty quickly if the defensive coverage isn’t right.
Colorado’s leading goal scorer has eight through ten games, and the club has been getting strong production from its top forwards and defensemen. That’s why I don’t worry much about the Avalanche finding goals. The injury list is a bigger concern. Nicolas Roy is out with a lower-body injury, Zachary L’Heureux has an upper-body problem, and Georgii Merkulov is unavailable. Logan O’Connor has also been dealing with a lower-body injury, although there’s some optimism about his return. Those absences take away useful depth against a team that can roll several dangerous lines.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche Picks and Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (+115)
I’ll take Tampa Bay at plus money. Colorado are at home, and scoring 4.1 goals per game makes them dangerous against anybody. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Avalanche scored four Friday. But Tampa Bay have won seven of nine, they’re allowing only 2.56 goals per game, and they’ve got a three-game winning streak going. Colorado have lost two straight and are missing some forward depth. I don’t think the Lightning should be getting this price just because they’re playing in Denver. Give me Tampa Bay +115.
Over 6.5 Goals (+110)
The over looks worth a shot at plus money. Colorado have scored 41 goals and conceded 31. Tampa Bay have scored 31 themselves. Both teams are generating close to 30 shots per night, and the Avalanche have gone over in three of their last five games. The obvious concern is Tampa Bay’s defense. They’ve been pretty good, and a strong goaltending performance could ruin this pick. Still, with Colorado’s scoring and the Lightning’s ability to answer, I can see both teams getting to three. Tampa Bay 4, Colorado 3.
Final Picks: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (+115) and Over 6.5 Goals (+110)
This preview was completed October 22, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting goaltenders may change before puck drop.
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