Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Predictions for Friday April 24 2026
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The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens meet for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference First Round series at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, on Friday, April 24, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 7:00 PM and national coverage available on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max. With the series tied 1-1, this matchup carries significant weight as both teams look to gain control. Tampa Bay enters with a 50-26-6 record, while Montreal finished the regular season at 48-24-10. The Lightning are listed as slight road favorites at -122 on the moneyline, while the Canadiens come in at +102. The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over priced at -135. Be ready for all the NHL action with our free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Game 2 of this series was a tightly contested battle that ultimately went to overtime, where the Tampa Bay Lightning secured a 3-2 victory on home ice. Montreal jumped out early and managed to keep the game competitive throughout regulation, but Tampa Bay responded with timely scoring and forced the extra period. In overtime, the Lightning capitalized to even the series, showcasing resilience in a back-and-forth contest that could have gone either way.
For Tampa Bay, the offensive contributions were spread out effectively, with multiple players stepping up in key moments. Anthony Cirelli played a pivotal role with two assists while also dominating in the faceoff circle, helping maintain possession throughout the game. Brandon Hagel contributed both a goal and an assist, providing a spark offensively, while Nikita Kucherov added a goal on five shots, continuing to be a driving force in generating scoring chances. Andrei Vasilevskiy was steady in net, stopping 25 of 27 shots and delivering key saves in high-pressure situations, particularly during overtime.
On the Montreal side, the effort was strong despite the loss. Lane Hutson found the back of the net and was active offensively, generating six shots on goal. Nick Suzuki contributed with an assist and remained involved in playmaking situations, while Jake Evans added another assist and provided solid support. Jakub Dobes turned in a solid performance in goal, making 31 saves on 34 shots, but ultimately could not hold off Tampa Bay in the extra session. Montreal showed they can compete at this level, but the inability to close out the game proved costly.
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Tampa Bay Looks to Carry Momentum on the Road
The Lightning enter this contest with a 50-26-6 record and have posted a 24-12-5 mark on the road this season. Over their last five games, Tampa Bay has recently won over Montreal in a 3-2 overtime result, recently lost to Montreal 4-3 in overtime, recently lost to the New York Rangers 4-2, and recently won over Detroit 4-3 in overtime and Boston 2-1. That recent stretch highlights their ability to grind out wins in tight contests, particularly in games that extend beyond regulation. Their Game 2 victory in this series gives them a momentum boost heading into a challenging road environment.
From a statistical standpoint, Tampa Bay has been strong on both ends of the ice. They are averaging 3.49 goals per game while allowing just 2.79 goals against per game, showing a balanced attack and solid defensive structure. The Lightning generate 28.1 shots per game and allow only 26.7, indicating a slight edge in puck control and shot suppression. Their special teams have also been effective, converting 20.7 percent of their power play opportunities while maintaining an 82.6 percent penalty kill rate.
One key strength for Tampa Bay is their defensive consistency paired with efficient scoring. Allowing under three goals per game while producing nearly three and a half goals per contest gives them a reliable formula for success. This balance makes them difficult to beat, especially in playoff settings where games often come down to tight margins.
Canadiens Aim to Respond at Home Ice
Montreal comes into Game 3 with a 48-24-10 record and a solid 24-15-2 mark at home this season. In their last five games, the Canadiens have recently lost to Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime, recently won over Tampa Bay 4-3 in overtime, recently lost to Philadelphia 4-2, and recently won over the New York Islanders 4-1 and lost to Columbus 5-2. While they have shown flashes of strong play, their results have been somewhat inconsistent, particularly in close contests that require late-game execution.
Looking at the team numbers, Montreal is averaging 3.40 goals per game while allowing 3.06 goals against per game. They generate 26.3 shots per game but allow 27.8, which suggests they can be slightly outpaced in terms of shot volume. On special teams, the Canadiens hold a 23.1 percent power play success rate, which is notably efficient, but their penalty kill sits at 78.2 percent, leaving room for improvement in defensive situations.
A key factor for Montreal is their offensive upside combined with defensive vulnerability. While they can score at a high rate and have shown effectiveness on the power play, allowing over three goals per game creates pressure to consistently outscore opponents. Tightening up defensively will be critical if they want to take control of this series on home ice.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
- Tampa Bay Lightning
The lean in this matchup is toward the Tampa Bay Lightning on the moneyline at -122. Tampa Bay has demonstrated a more balanced profile, combining strong offensive production with a more reliable defensive structure. Their ability to limit goals against while still generating consistent scoring gives them an edge in a series that has already produced multiple overtime games. With a recent win in Game 2 and a stronger goals-against average, the Lightning appear better equipped to handle another close contest.
Total Pick
- Over
The total is set at 5.5 goals, and the lean is toward the over. Both teams are averaging over 3.3 goals per game, and while Tampa Bay has a solid defensive record, Montreal’s tendency to allow just over three goals per game opens the door for scoring opportunities. With two overtime games already in this series and both offenses capable of producing, another game that pushes past the total is a strong possibility.
Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – Montreal Canadiens 3
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