Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Predictions for Sunday April 26 2026
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The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to face the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec on Sunday, April 26, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 7:00 PM. Coverage is available on ESPN. Montreal enters Game 4 of the Eastern Conference First Round with a 2-1 series lead after taking the previous matchup in overtime, while Tampa Bay looks to even the series on the road. The Lightning are listed at -115 on the moneyline and -1.5 at +205, while the Canadiens are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 at -250. The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over priced at -130 and the under at +110. Get all the NHL action with our Free NHL picks.
Previous Game Recap
Montreal recently won over Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime in Game 3, taking a 2-1 lead in the series. The game was tight from the start, with both teams scoring once in the first period and once again in the second period before a scoreless third sent the matchup into overtime. Montreal found the deciding goal in the extra period, finishing off a close home victory and continuing a series that has been defined by narrow margins.
For Tampa Bay, Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point each scored in the loss, giving the Lightning enough offense to force overtime but not enough to finish the game. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel each added an assist, helping drive the attack in key moments. Anthony Cirelli also contributed with a strong faceoff showing while logging heavy usage, and Andrei Vasilevskiy made 26 saves on 29 shots with a .897 save percentage as Tampa Bay pushed the game beyond regulation.
Montreal’s scoring came from Kirby Dach, Alexandre Texier, and Lane Hutson, with Dach adding an assist as part of a strong all-around performance. Texier also finished with a goal and an assist, while Zack Bolduc helped set up two goals and finished with a plus-three rating. Arber Xhekaj added an assist from the blue line, and Jakub Dobes stopped 15 of 17 shots to help Montreal hold on through regulation before securing the overtime win.
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Lightning Look to Even the Series on the Road
Tampa Bay enters this matchup with a 50-26-6 record, including a 24-12-5 mark away from home. The Lightning recently lost to Montreal 3-2 in overtime in Game 3 after recently winning over Montreal 3-2 in overtime in Game 2. They also recently lost to Montreal 4-3 in overtime in Game 1, making all three games in this series one-goal overtime results. Before the playoffs, Tampa Bay recently lost to New York 4-2 and recently won over Detroit 4-3 in overtime.
The Lightning average 3.49 goals per game while allowing 2.79 goals against per game. They generate 28.1 shots per game and allow 26.7 shots against. On special teams, Tampa Bay has 51 power-play goals with a 20.7 percent conversion rate, while allowing 45 power-play goals against with an 82.6 percent penalty-kill rate. They have also produced six shorthanded goals.
A key strength for Tampa Bay is its overall balance between scoring and prevention. The Lightning’s goals-per-game average is comfortably above their goals-against average, and they also allow fewer shots per game than they produce. In a series where every matchup has gone to overtime, that kind of balance gives Tampa Bay a strong base as it looks to respond after the previous playoff loss.
Canadiens Try to Build on Overtime Momentum
Montreal comes into Game 4 with a 48-24-10 record and a 24-15-2 mark at home. The Canadiens recently won over Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime in Game 3, which gave them a 2-1 series lead. They recently lost to Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime in Game 2 but recently won over Tampa Bay 4-3 in overtime in Game 1. Outside of this series, Montreal recently lost to Philadelphia 4-2 and recently won over the Islanders 4-1.
The Canadiens average 3.40 goals per game while allowing 3.06 goals against per game. They put 26.3 shots on goal per game and allow 27.8 shots against. On special teams, Montreal has scored 56 power-play goals with a 23.1 percent conversion rate, while allowing 54 power-play goals against with a 78.2 percent penalty-kill rate. They have also recorded eight shorthanded goals.
One important strength for Montreal is its power-play production, as the Canadiens have the higher power-play percentage in this matchup based on the provided numbers. However, their goals allowed per game and shots allowed per game sit higher than Tampa Bay’s marks, which keeps this matchup close. With the series lead and home ice, Montreal has a chance to create separation if it can continue to finish in tight moments.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick
- Tampa Bay Lightning
This matchup has been extremely tight based on the provided series results, with all three games requiring overtime and each decided by one goal. Montreal holds the 2-1 series lead and recently won over Tampa Bay at home, but Tampa Bay has the stronger goals-against average, better shots-for and shots-against profile, and higher penalty-kill percentage. The Lightning also enter with a strong road record and have been right there in every game of this series. With the odds nearly even and the team data showing several narrow edges, the side pick is Tampa Bay on the moneyline.
Total Pick
- Over 5.5
The total is set at 5.5 goals, and the lean is toward the over. The three games in this series have finished 4-3, 3-2, and 3-2, with every matchup going to overtime. Tampa Bay averages 3.49 goals per game, while Montreal averages 3.40 goals per game, and both teams have shown enough scoring to keep these games competitive deep into regulation and beyond. Montreal also has the stronger power-play percentage, while Tampa Bay has solid offensive production overall. With another close game likely based on the series pattern, the over 5.5 is the preferred total lean.
Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – Montreal Canadiens 3
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