Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Picks and Predictions for Saturday December 13 2025
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Tampa Bay heads to Long Island for a matinee matchup against an Islanders team that has quietly been one of the more disciplined defensive clubs in the Eastern Conference. This game shapes up as a contrast between elite offensive talent and structured, goaltending-driven hockey. Be ready for all the action on the ice with our free NHL Picks.
Lightning vs Islanders Betting Overview
The Lightning enter at 18-11-2, while the Islanders sit at 18-11-3 and have been strong at UBS Arena. Tampa Bay’s road record (10-4-2) keeps them competitive in nearly every matchup, but New York’s ability to slow games down makes this a tricky spot.
Tampa Bay Lightning Preview
Offense
Tampa Bay continues to rely on its stars to drive production:
- 3.13 GF/G
- 27.4 shots per game
- Power Play: 16.3%
Key contributors:
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- Nikita Kucherov: 40 points (13G, 27A)
- Brandon Hagel: 18 goals, high-volume shooter
The Lightning offense can explode quickly, but it has been streaky when opponents control pace.
Defense & Goaltending
- 2.53 GAA
- PK: 86.5% (elite)
Expected goaltending:
- Andrei Vasilevskiy: 2.31 GAA, .917 SV%
- Jonas Johansson: 2.53 GAA, .905 SV%
If Vasilevskiy starts, Tampa owns a clear edge in net.
Injuries to Note
- Victor Hedman IR
- Ryan McDonagh IR
- Erik Cernak IR
- Dominic James OUT
Blue-line depth is a concern, particularly against New York’s forecheck.
Recent Form (Last 5)
- W 8–4 @ NJ
- W 6–1 @ MTL
- L 2–0 @ TOR
- L 2–0 vs NYI
- L 4–3 vs PIT
New York Islanders Preview
Offense
- 2.90 GF/G
- 29.0 shots per game
- Power Play: 15.0%
Key players:
- Bo Horvat: 31 points (19G)
- Mathew Barzal: primary playmaker
The Islanders don’t overwhelm teams offensively, but they capitalize on mistakes.
Defense & Goaltending
- 2.77 GAA
- PK: 84.3%
Goaltending:
- Ilya Sorokin: 2.53 GAA, .910 SV%
- David Rittich: reliable backup option
Sorokin’s ability to control rebounds is crucial against Tampa’s shooters.
Injuries to Note
- Bo Horvat Day-To-Day
- Jonathan Drouin OUT
- Kyle Palmieri IR
Recent Form (Last 5)
- W 5–2 vs ANA
- W 5–4 vs VGK (SO)
- L 4–1 @ FLA
- W 2–0 @ TB
- W 6–3 vs COL
Matchup Breakdown
- Goaltending: Slight edge Islanders if Sorokin starts
- Star Power: Lightning
- Special Teams: Lightning PK vs Islanders PP favors Tampa
Expect a slower, grind-it-out game.
Picks & Predictions
This matchup likely comes down to goaltending and game flow. New York excels at turning games into low-event contests, which neutralizes some of Tampa Bay’s offensive firepower. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on the Lightning. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Islanders with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Islanders vs Lightning you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Best Pick: Under 6.0 goals
Lean: Islanders ML
Final Score Prediction
New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
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